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MISS

Ole Miss 27 at Missouri 38

MIZ
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:36 · Mac Brown punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cade Musser at the Misso 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior+12.8Home team on offense+13.8Score differential+4.8Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:16: Larry Rountree III run for 41 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann PAT MISSED) — MIZ win probability +5.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:07: Dawson Downing run for 54 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +7.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:51: John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 28 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +9.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:19: John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +9.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:51: John Rhys Plumlee run for 40 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan PAT MISSED) — MISS win probability +6.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:54MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:00MIZ 4th & 6 at MISS 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:06MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:13MIZ 4th & 7 at MISS 39, down 4
    Close callPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    76.3%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:48MISS 4th & 1 at MIZ 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−1.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:17MISS 4th & 6 at MIZ 47, down 2
    Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:38MIZ 4th & 9 at MISS 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:08MISS 4th & 1 at MIZ 1, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    25.0%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:17MISS 4th & 9 at MIZ 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:30MIZ 4th & 10 at MISS 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:36MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:22MISS 4th & 4 at MIZ 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−1.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:09MIZ 4th & 7 at MISS 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:58MIZ 4th & 2 at MISS 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:51MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:23MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:16MIZ Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:07MIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:51MISS Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:02MIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:19MISS Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:51MISS Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0120% → 20%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.5%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
80.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Miss 30 John Rhys Plumlee fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
80.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
80.2%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds , Johnathon Johnson returns for 1 yd to the Misso 29 Johnathon Johnson fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:5420% → 21%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
80.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Misso 28Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
79.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+10
79.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 10 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
79.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Misso 18Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
79.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Misso 11Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 3
OPP 11
-10
79.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Misso 21Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+21
78.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Scottie Phillips for 21 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:4579% → 78%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
78.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 4 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
78.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
78.2%
Kelly Bryant run for 3 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+23
78.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 23 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
78.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 18 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
78.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 1 yd to the Miss 16Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+3
77.7%
Kelly Bryant run for 3 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
77.3%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Jalen KnoxSimilar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
78.0%
Tucker McCann 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4922% → 22%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
77.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
77.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+9
77.7%
Mac Brown punt for 48 yds , Cade Musser returns for 9 yds to the Misso 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:4677% → 77%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
77.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 7 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+14
77.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 14 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
77.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
77.3%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Daniel Parker Jr.Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
77.2%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Daniel Parker Jr.Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
76.6%
Tucker McCann punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6FUMBLE
14 plays · 45 yds · 4:1824% → 28%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
76.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 6 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
76.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 8 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
75.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
75.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 7 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+7
74.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 17 yds to the MISSOURI 40 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
50
0
74.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 10
50
+10
74.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 10 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
74.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
74.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+6
73.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
73.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
72.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-4
72.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 35 John Rhys Plumlee fumbled, recovered by MissoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:1774% → 78%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
74.1%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
74.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 5 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+29
74.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 29 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
75.5%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+4
74.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+11
74.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 11 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
77.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tyler Badie for 17 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:0224% → 25%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.1%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
76.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
76.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 13 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
74.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
74.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+6
74.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 6 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
73.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
73.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
73.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
74.7%
Mac Brown punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cade Musser at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9FG
17 plays · 60 yds · 5:3475% → 79%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
75.3%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Kam ScottSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+13
75.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 13 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
75.4%
Tyler Badie run for 14 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
76.1%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
75.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
76.1%
Kelly Bryant run for 5 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
77.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
77.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
77.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tyler Badie for 3 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
77.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 6 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+1
77.0%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
77.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
77.5%
Kelly Bryant run for no gain to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
76.4%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Jalen KnoxSimilar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
78.5%
Tucker McCann 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10DOWNS
15 plays · 74 yds · 4:2022% → 23%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
77.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
76.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
76.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 6 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
75.8%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
75.6%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+23
76.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 23 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
73.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
73.5%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+15
75.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 15 yds to the Misso 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
73.3%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the Misso 3Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
73.2%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.2%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.8%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
78.5%
Kelly Bryant run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:3978% → 85%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
78.0%
Kelly Bryant run for 1 yd to the Misso 36Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
78.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Kam Scott for 15 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
79.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 8 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 2
OPP 41
0
79.6%
Kelly Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+41
85.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 41 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:4116% → 16%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
83.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 12 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
82.7%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
83.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Scottie Phillips for 1 yd to the Misso 47Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
83.4%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
84.5%
Mac Brown punt for 46 yds, downed at the Misso 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14FG
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:4785% → 89%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
84.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Misso 6Similar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 5
OWN 6
+7
84.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 7 yds to the Misso 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
85.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+15
85.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacquez Jones) to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+49
85.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tyler Badie for 49 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
86.4%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Miss 21Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
86.6%
Kelly Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
86.1%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
89.1%
Tucker McCann 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4912% → 12%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.4%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.6%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
88.5%
Mac Brown punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cade Musser at the Misso 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:2190% → 98%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
90.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 3 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
90.0%
Dawson Downing run for 2 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+4
90.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (4 Yards) to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
88.7%
Kelly Bryant run for 2 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
89.2%
Dawson Downing run for 4 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
90.1%
Dawson Downing run for 5 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
89.7%
Kelly Bryant run for 3 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
97.6%
Dawson Downing run for 54 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:123% → 14%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
96.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+16
96.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 16 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
96.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 12 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
96.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+6
96.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
86.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 28 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4093% → 99%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
92.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 36 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
93.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jalen Knox for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+5
93.7%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+26
94.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 26 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:382% → 11%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
98.3%
Matt Corral run for 10 yds to the Miss 37 Matt Corral fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
98.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 34 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
98.1%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+11
98.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the Misso 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
98.2%
Elijah Moore run for 3 yds to the Misso 9Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
88.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:3394% → 95%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
94.4%
Dawson Downing run for 4 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
94.5%
Kelly Bryant pass intercepted Sam Williams return for 4 yds to the Misso 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0810% → 9%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
90.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+3
90.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
90.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
91.2%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:0296% → 97%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
95.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 11 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
95.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
95.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+7
95.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Kam Scott for 7 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
96.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
96.2%
Kelly Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
96.2%
Kelly Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
97.1%
Tucker McCann 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:094% → 10%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
96.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Scottie Phillips for 15 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
96.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
50
+8
96.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 8 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
96.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+40
90.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 40 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
17 plays · 67 yds · 5:3093% → 98%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
93.2%
Dawson Downing run for 1 yd to the Misso 3Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+16
94.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Tariqious Tisdale) to the Misso 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
94.2%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 18Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+20
95.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 20 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
95.5%
Kelly Bryant run for 2 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
95.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+17
96.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 17 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
96.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+4
97.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+2
97.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+3
97.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:51
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 28 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q4 13:19
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q3 5:07
Dawson Downing run for 54 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com