Try the model
TROY

Troy 10 at Missouri 42

MIZ
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:44 · Dawson Downing run for 13 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:38: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 15 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +1.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:37: Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 64 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +1.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:57: Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 16 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +3.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:13: Kaleb Barker pass intercepted for a TD Cale Garrett return for 33 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 4:55: Tyler Sumpter 43 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TROY made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 9:55TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:27TROY 4th & 17 at TROY 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 42, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:17TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:20MIZ 4th & 15 at TROY 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:25MIZ 4th & 25 at TROY 34, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:25TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 36, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MIZ 4th & 8 at TROY 47, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:39TROY 4th & 5 at MIZ 43, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:55TROY 4th & 18 at MIZ 26, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:49MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 44, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 44, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:39MIZ 4th & 20 at TROY 32, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:48TROY 4th & 5 at MIZ 40, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:38TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:55MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:27MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:37MIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:57MIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:13MIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:12MIZ Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:226% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
93.9%
Barker, Kaleb pass incomplete to Geiger, Kaylon, PENALTY MU offside 5 yards to the TROY31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
93.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
93.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 5 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
93.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 18 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
93.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 5 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+20
93.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 20 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
93.9%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+6
93.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 6 yds to the Misso 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
93.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger, broken up by Joshuah BledsoeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
93.9%
Barker, Kaleb pass incomplete to Todd, Reggie, PENALTY TROY ineligible downfield on pass (Kelley, Kirk) 5 yards to the MU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
93.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Bret ClarkSimilar
Q1 11:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
92.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 15 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:3893% → 93%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
92.8%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
92.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+49
92.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Kam Scott for 49 yds to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Troy 1Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
92.6%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
92.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 4 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
92.5%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-4
92.5%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Kobie Whiteside for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
92.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:4892% → 93%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
91.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+14
91.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 14 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
92.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 17 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
92.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
92.2%
Kelly Bryant run for 1 yd to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+7
92.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 7 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
92.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 8 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+22
92.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 22 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.2%
Kelly Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.5%
Kelly Bryant run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
92.1%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Kobie Whiteside for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
92.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+2
92.3%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 53 yds , Richaud Floyd returns for 2 yds to the Misso 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:5392% → 94%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
91.8%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+64
93.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 64 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:377% → 7%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
93.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK BillingsleySimilar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
93.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 6 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
93.0%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
93.1%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Johnathon Johnson at the Misso 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
93.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Kam Scott for 8 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 41
-1
93.7%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
93.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
93.4%
Tucker McCann punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
92.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 5 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
92.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK Billingsley, broken up by Khalil OliverSimilar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
92.9%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Johnathon Johnson at the Misso 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
93.4%
Kelly Bryant run for 6 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
93.3%
Tyler Badie run for 3 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
93.2%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+15
93.0%
McCann, Tucker punt 32 yards to the TROY43, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TROY roughing the kicker (Sailo, Travis) 15 yards to the MU40, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
93.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 17 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-11
93.7%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Carlton Martial and Justin Whisenhunt for a loss of 11 yards to the Misso 46Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 21
OWN 46
0
93.5%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Albert OkwuegbunamSimilar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 21
OWN 46
+6
93.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tyler Badie for 6 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
93.1%
Tucker McCann punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
92.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for no gain to the Troy 8Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+15
92.9%
Barker, Kaleb pass incomplete to Whittemore, L., PENALTY MU roughing passer (Elliott, Jordan) 15 yards to the TROY23, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+26
92.7%
Kaleb Barker pass intercepted for a 1ST down Cale Garrett return for 26 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0793% → 97%
Q2 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
93.2%
Rountree, Larry rush for 1 yard to the TROY0, clock 08:04, PENALTY MU face mask (Parker, Daniel) 15 yards to the TROY16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
96.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 16 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13INT TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:444% → 1%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.0%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
96.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 7 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
95.8%
TROY Penalty, false start (DK Billingsley) to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+33
98.6%
Kaleb Barker pass intercepted for a TD Cale Garrett return for 33 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · -4 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.7%
Kelly Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+11
98.7%
Kelly Bryant run for 11 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
98.7%
Downing, Dawson rush for 11 yards to the TROY8 (Dunmore, Jaquez), PENALTY MU holding (Colon-Castillo) 10 yards to the TROY29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 20
OPP 29
0
98.7%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Tyler BadieSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 20
OPP 29
-5
98.7%
Bryant, Kelly pass complete to Johnson, J. for 5 yards to the TROY24, out-of-bounds (Fletcher, O.), PENALTY MU ineligible downfield on pass (Okwuegbunam, A.) 5 yards to the TROY34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 25
OPP 34
0
98.7%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 25
OPP 34
0
98.6%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Albert Okwuegbunam, broken up by O'shai FletcherSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 25
OPP 34
+52
98.7%
Tucker McCann 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
98.8%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
98.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger, broken up by Joshuah BledsoeSimilar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
98.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie Todd TROY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+49
98.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 34 yds, downed at the MISSOURI 30 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1199% → 99%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
98.9%
Tyler Badie run for 11 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
98.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 18 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
98.9%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+5
98.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Kam Scott for 5 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 0
+10
98.9%
Kelly Bryant run for 10 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
98.9%
Tyler Badie run for 8 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
99.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jalen Knox for 6 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18END OF HALF
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.3%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.3%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
99.3%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.3%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Kam Scott for 8 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+18
99.3%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Kam Scott for 18 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.3%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-11
99.3%
Powell, Taylor rush for 2 yards to the TROY46, out-of-bounds, PENALTY MU holding (Durant, Yasir) 11 yards to the MU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+12
99.3%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tyler Badie for 12 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Tucker McCann punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kaylon Geiger at the Troy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 6:441% → 1%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.5%
Trevon Woolfolk run for no gain to the Troy 10Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
99.6%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 3
OWN 17
-5
99.6%
Trevon Woolfolk run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 8
OPP 0
0
99.0%
Sumpter, Tyler punt 50 yards to the MU38, Johnson, J. return to the TROY40 (Kaye, Cameron), PENALTY MU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY TROY holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Carlton MartialSimilar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.6%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+22
99.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 22 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.5%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
99.5%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Trevon Woolfolk, broken up by Nick BoltonSimilar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+25
99.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 25 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-6
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Troy Gunnar WatsonSimilar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 29
OPP 37
+4
99.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 4 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 25
OPP 33
+7
99.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for 7 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 18
OPP 26
+43
98.9%
Tyler Sumpter 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.7%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Dawson Downing for 2 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+17
99.7%
Dawson Downing run for 17 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Dawson Downing run for no gain to the Misso 38Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.7%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Niko Hea for 6 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Taylor Powell pass incomplete to Dawson DowningSimilar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Tucker McCann punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
99.8%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+2
99.8%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+15
99.8%
Watson, Gunnar pass incomplete to Gibson, Timmie, PENALTY MU pass interference (Holmes, C.) 15 yards to the TROY30, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.8%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+8
99.7%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 8 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the Troy 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Troy Trevon WoolfolkSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+7
99.9%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23MISSED FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 6:26100% → 100%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.8%
Simi Bakare run for 4 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
99.8%
Simi Bakare run for 1 yd to the Misso 35Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+11
99.8%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 11 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.8%
Simi Bakare run for 6 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+16
99.8%
Simi Bakare run for 16 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
99.8%
Simi Bakare run for 10 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.8%
Simi Bakare run for no gain to the Troy 22Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-1
99.8%
Simi Bakare run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 11
OPP 23
-9
99.8%
Taylor Powell sacked by Carlton Martial for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 20
OPP 32
+50
99.9%
Sean Koetting 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 5:510% → 0%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
99.9%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Jarvis Hayes run for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.9%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
99.9%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Timmie Gibson for no gain to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
100.0%
Dawson Downing run for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+5
100.0%
Dawson Downing run for 5 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+13
100.0%
Dawson Downing run for 13 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:57
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 16 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q2 6:13
Kaleb Barker pass intercepted for a TD Cale Garrett return for 33 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q1 0:37
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 64 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com