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VAN

Vanderbilt 6 at Ole Miss 31

MISS
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:37 · Mac Brown punt for 65 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense+20.4Pregame prior+6.8Score differential+9.5Garbage-time factor+9.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:15: John Rhys Plumlee run for 33 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +1.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Ryley Guay 43 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +4.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Spencer Cole kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — MISS win probability +2.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:17: Jerrion Ealy run for 78 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +12.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:03: Snoop Conner run for 84 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +11.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 10VAN made the numbers' call on 11 of 15
  1. Q1 12:32MISS 4th & 18 at VAN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:15VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:18VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.0%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:54VAN 4th & 11 at MISS 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    28.1%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MISS 4th & 5 at VAN 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:04VAN 4th & 4 at MISS 4, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:04MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:12VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:55MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:27VAN 4th & 3 at MISS 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:24MISS 4th & 3 at VAN 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:11VAN 4th & 7 at MISS 41, down 11
    Close callPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:16VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:37MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 35, up 18
    Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:11VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:24MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 45, up 18
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:15MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 33, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:55VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:17MISS 4th & 1 at VAN 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.7
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:29VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 26, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  24. Q4 2:16MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 33, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:00VAN 4th & 24 at MISS 40, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:15MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:17MISS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:03MISS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:29MISS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:2869% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+54
68.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 54 yds to the Vandy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-6
68.8%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Allan George for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 22
-1
68.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 23
-6
68.8%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Andre Mintze for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 23
OPP 29
+5
68.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 18
OPP 24
+41
68.6%
Luke Logan 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:2331% → 31%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
68.7%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the Vandy 4Similar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+4
68.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 8
-3
68.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 5Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 12
OWN 5
+1
69.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Pierce for 1 yd to the Vandy 6Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 11
OWN 6
0
69.1%
Harrison Smith punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 1:0369% → 71%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
69.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+2
69.3%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
70.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 33 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
17 plays · 33 yds · 6:2130% → 26%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.5%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 9 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
70.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
70.6%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
70.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
70.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
70.2%
Keyon Brooks run for no gain to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
72.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
72.1%
Riley Neal sacked by Benito Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 42Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+17
72.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Pierce for 2 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, personal foul (Jalen Julius) to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
71.7%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
71.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
72.3%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
73.7%
Riley Neal punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:4773% → 73%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.5%
Elijah Moore run for no gain to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
72.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 12 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+30
72.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 30 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
73.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
73.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 5 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
73.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Vandy 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+3
73.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 3 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:5226% → 28%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
73.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 11 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
73.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+43
72.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 43 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
71.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Miss 9Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
71.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ke'Shawn Vaughn) to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
+4
72.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+16
73.6%
Riley Neal run for 16 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
72.1%
Ryley Guay 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
73.7%
Scottie Phillips run for 17 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
74.3%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Andre Mintze for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
73.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 14
OWN 44
0
73.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jonathan Mingo, broken up by Brendon HarrisSimilar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
72.3%
Mac Brown punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
74.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 10 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
73.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
73.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for no gain to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+5
73.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (Charles Wiley) to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-8
72.8%
Riley Neal sacked by Lakia Henry for a loss of 8 yards to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+1
74.9%
Harrison Smith punt for 54 yds , Elijah Moore returns for 1 yd to the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
75.0%
John Rhys Plumlee rush for no gain to the OM18 (Jaylen Mahoney;Kenny Hebert), PENALTY OM holding (Nick Broeker) 9 yards to the OM9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+3
74.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+9
74.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 9 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
74.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete, broken up by Randall HaynieSimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 7
OWN 21
+9
73.6%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds , Justice Shelton-Mosley returns for 9 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
73.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 44Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+9
74.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justice Shelton-Mosley for 9 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
73.3%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
74.2%
Harrison Smith punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 1:3476% → 76%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
75.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-8
75.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 26 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Royce Newman) to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+12
75.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 12 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+13
75.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 13 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
77.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 14 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
77.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Demarcus GregorySimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
77.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 7 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
76.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Octavious Cooley, broken up by Brendon HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
75.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete, broken up by Randall HaynieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:5224% → 32%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
75.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cam Johnson for 4 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+14
74.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 14 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
73.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 19 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
71.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, broken up by Keidron SmithSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+43
67.7%
Ryley Guay 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
67.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 8 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
67.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
67.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
67.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Cam Johnson, broken up by Armani LintonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
69.3%
Harrison Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:3569% → 81%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
68.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+78
80.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 78 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
80.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cam Johnson for 12 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
79.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 17 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
78.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+5
78.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Keyon Brooks for 5 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
78.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Ben BresnahanSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
80.1%
Harrison Smith punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
3 plays · 92 yds · 1:0781% → 93%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
81.4%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+7
81.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+84
92.5%
Snoop Conner run for 84 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:479% → 9%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
90.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jared Pinkney, broken up by Jacquez JonesSimilar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
89.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-3
89.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
90.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
90.6%
Harrison Smith punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
92.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 13 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
92.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+4
92.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+4
92.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 4 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
91.9%
Mac Brown punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
92.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 1 yd to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
92.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for no gain to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
92.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris Pierce VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+5
92.6%
Harrison Smith punt for 48 yds , Elijah Moore returns for 5 yds to the Miss 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
94.0%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Miss 37Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
94.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+8
94.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
93.6%
Mac Brown punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Justice Shelton-Mosley at the Vandy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:536% → 6%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
93.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
93.2%
Keyon Brooks run for no gain to the Vandy 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+10
94.2%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 10 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
93.8%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 2 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, substitution infraction (15 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.7%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-3
93.7%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Cam Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 46
0
94.3%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to Jared Pinkney, broken up by Quentin BivensSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
94.3%
Harrison Smith punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
96.4%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
96.4%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
96.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
96.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-1
96.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-1
96.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
96.1%
Mac Brown punt for 43 yds , Justice Shelton-Mosley returns for no gain to the Vandy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
96.1%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to Chris PierceSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
96.1%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to Chris Pierce, broken up by Luke KnoxSimilar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
96.2%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
96.2%
Harrison Smith punt for 45 yds, downed at the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:5697% → 100%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
97.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
97.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+28
97.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 28 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
98.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
98.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
98.0%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+3
99.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
99.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 24 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to James Bostic, broken up by Keidron SmithSimilar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.4%
Keyon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Vandy 26Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Deuce Wallace run for no gain to the Vandy 26Similar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Harrison Smith punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.8%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+1
99.8%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Mac Brown punt for 41 yds, downed at the Vandy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 12 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 19 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete, broken up by Hal NorthernSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+17
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Chris Pierce for 17 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.8%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to Chris PierceSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
99.8%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to Keyon BrooksSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-14
99.8%
Deuce Wallace sacked by Austrian Robinson and Brenden Williams for a loss of 14 yards to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 24
OPP 40
+5
99.8%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Keyon Brooks for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:17
Jerrion Ealy run for 78 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
+12.3
TD · Q3 9:03
Snoop Conner run for 84 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
+11.2
FG · Q2 0:00
Ryley Guay 43 yd FG GOOD
-4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com