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USU

Utah State 6 at LSU 42

LSU
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 6:25: Dominik Eberle 30 Yd Field Goal — USU win probability +0.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:03: Joe Burrow 1 Yd Run (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:55: Ja'Marr Chase 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:55: Justin Jefferson 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:54: Justin Jefferson 39 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 4USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 8:12USU 4th & 24 at USU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:25USU 4th & 13 at LSU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:37LSU 4th & 1 at USU 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:45USU 4th & 10 at LSU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:52USU 4th & 3 at USU 44, down 15
    Close callPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:35LSU 4th & 17 at USU 36, up 15
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:10USU 4th & 16 at USU 19, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:16USU 4th & 2 at USU 45, down 22
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:23USU 4th & 2 at USU 27, down 22
    Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:58LSU 4th & 1 at USU 34, up 36
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:39USU 4th & 8 at USU 37, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:28LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 34, up 36
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:08USU 4th & 9 at USU 26, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:41LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:03LSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:55LSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:55LSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:54LSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:23LSU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:1997% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
96.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
96.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 16 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
96.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 10 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
96.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 11 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
96.5%
Joe Burrow run for no gain to the UthSt 32 Adrian Magee run for 1 yd to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+12
96.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 12 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
96.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 8 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 2
OPP 12
-11
96.4%
Emery Jr., John rush for 12 yards to the UTAHST0, PENALTY LSU holding (Moss, Thaddeus) 11 yards to the UTAHST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+12
96.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 12 yds to the UthSt 11Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
96.3%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the UthSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
96.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.3%
Derrick Dillon 7 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 2:294% → 4%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 14 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
96.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 10 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
96.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 8 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+6
96.0%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
96.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
96.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 15
OPP 42
-9
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 24
OWN 49
0
96.0%
Pierce Callister punt for 47 yds, downed at the LSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4996% → 96%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
95.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 7
OWN 8
0
95.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+19
95.7%
Joe Burrow pass intercepted Cameron Haney return for 19 yds to the LSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4FG
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:584% → 5%
Q1 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
95.6%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the LSU 6Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.5%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-7
95.6%
Jordan Love sacked by Neil Farrell Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 13Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
95.3%
Dominik Eberle 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:3895% → 95%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
95.4%
Burrow, Joe rush for 4 yards to the LSU45, PENALTY LSU illegal formation 5 yards to the LSU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+10
95.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 10 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+1
95.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+9
95.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 9 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
95.1%
Joe Burrow sacked by David Woodward for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 48Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+6
94.9%
Myles Brennan run for 6 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+7
94.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 7 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
94.6%
Joe Burrow run for no gain to the UthSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6FG
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:526% → 6%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
94.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 35 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
93.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
93.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Caleb ReppSimilar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
93.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
94.0%
Dominik Eberle 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:4094% → 95%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+38
94.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 38 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
94.3%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 41Similar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+21
94.0%
Joe Burrow run for 21 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
94.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+9
94.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
93.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the UthSt 1 Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumbled, forced by Kevin Meitzenheimer, recovered by LSU Thaddeus MossSimilar
Q2 14:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.8%
Joe Burrow 1 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8INT
13 plays · 50 yds · 2:205% → 7%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
94.6%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Siaki Ika) to the UthSt 26Similar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 5
OWN 26
-1
94.5%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 25Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-2
94.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 23Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 23
-5
94.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Carson Terrell) to the UthSt 18Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 13
OWN 18
0
94.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Carson TerrellSimilar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 13
OWN 18
+15
94.7%
LSU Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Eric Monroe) to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
94.2%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
94.1%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+35
94.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 35 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
93.4%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
93.5%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Derek Stingley Jr. return for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 99 yds · 6:4294% → 96%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
94.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+6
93.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 6 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+9
93.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 9 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
93.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+9
93.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
93.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
93.3%
Joe Burrow sacked by Jacoby Wildman for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+19
93.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 19 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
93.7%
John Emery Jr. run for no gain to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
93.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 3 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+15
93.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 15 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
93.7%
Joe Burrow run for 14 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
95.7%
Ja'Marr Chase 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:024% → 4%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
95.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 8 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
95.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+8
95.6%
Gerold Bright run for 8 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+1
95.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 1 yd to the UthSt 44Similar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
96.3%
Pierce Callister punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:1796% → 96%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+37
96.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 37 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
96.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+11
96.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 11 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-7
96.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 17
OPP 36
0
96.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Tyrion Davis-PriceSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 17
OPP 36
0
96.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 17
OPP 36
0
96.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
96.3%
Enoch Nawahine run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:505% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.0%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
95.0%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:25
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
95.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Alfred Edwards) to the UthSt 19Similar
Q3 14:22
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
95.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Gerold BrightSimilar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
95.2%
Pierce Callister punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:1596% → 99%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
95.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 8 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
95.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
95.3%
Joe Burrow run for 4 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
94.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 5 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+9
94.7%
Joe Burrow run for 9 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
94.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+9
94.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 9 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
94.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 7 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 3
OPP 4
0
94.8%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
98.6%
Justin Jefferson 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:392% → 2%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 12 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
97.9%
Riley Burt run for 5 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
97.9%
Riley Burt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
97.9%
Riley Burt run for no gain to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
98.0%
Pierce Callister punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16FUMBLE
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:1399% → 99%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
98.5%
John Emery Jr. run for 13 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
98.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 3 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
98.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Racey McMathSimilar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
98.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+15
98.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Savon Scarver) to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
98.7%
John Emery Jr. run for 7 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+10
98.7%
John Emery Jr. run for 10 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
98.8%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+10
98.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 10 yds John Emery Jr. fumbled, forced by Kevin Meitzenheimer, recovered by UthSt Troy Lefeged Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:402% → 2%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
98.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 8 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 2
OWN 27
0
98.3%
Riley Burt run for no gain to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
98.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
98.4%
Pierce Callister punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:2999% → 100%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
98.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
99.0%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+20
99.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 20 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.8%
Justin Jefferson 39 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
99.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 10 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.8%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Kary Vincent Jr. return for 5 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 3:40100% → 100%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
99.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
99.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 8 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+5
99.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
99.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 13 yds to the UthSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
99.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 8Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Thaddeus Moss 8 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Enoch Nawahine run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
99.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Enoch Nawahine for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 22Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Grant Delpit return for no gain to the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 6 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 6 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 3 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+9
99.9%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Racey McMath for 9 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 7 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Chris Curry run for no gain to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+2
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 2 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+53
99.9%
Cade York 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Enoch Nawahine run for 3 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-1
99.9%
Jordan Love sacked by Micah Baskerville for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 37Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Pierce Callister punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 1 yd to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Myles Brennan run for 5 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 3:200% → 0%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
100.0%
Enoch Nawahine run for 4 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+10
100.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Derek Wright for 10 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Enoch Nawahine run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Enoch Nawahine run for no gain to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-1
100.0%
Enoch Nawahine run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+10
100.0%
Pierce Callister punt for 44 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 10 yds to the LSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 10 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
100.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 9 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
100.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
100.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:55
Justin Jefferson 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)
+3.9
TD · Q2 4:55
Ja'Marr Chase 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)
+2
TD · Q2 14:03
Joe Burrow 1 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)
+0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com