Try the model
NIU

Northern Illinois 18 at Vanderbilt 24

VAN
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · FirstBank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:15 · Matt Ference punt for 41 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Home team on offense+8.4Pregame prior+12.1Garbage-time factor+0.5Score differential+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:01: Ross Bowers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 38 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +12.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:12: Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 38 yds for a TD, (Javan Rice KICK) — VAN win probability +11.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:46: Javan Rice 28 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +4.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:44: Marcus Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Bowers pass to Mitchell Brinkman for Two-Point Conversion) — NIU win probability +18.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:44: Justice Shelton-Mosley run for 4 yds to the Vandy 19 — VAN win probability +11.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:58NIU 4th & 17 at NIU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:57NIU 4th & 12 at VAN 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:56VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 34, up 14
    Close callPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:15NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:56VAN 4th & 11 at NIU 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−0.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:29NIU 4th & 6 at VAN 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:18VAN 4th & 8 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:15NIU 4th & 29 at VAN 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:32VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:25NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:51NIU 4th & 2 at VAN 21, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−5.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:20VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:12NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:46VAN 4th & 6 at NIU 10, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−5.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:44VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−3.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:59NIU 4th & 16 at NIU 48, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:25VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:57VAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:01NIU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:12VAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:44NIU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:3568% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
67.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cam Johnson for 23 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
67.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 41Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 12
OWN 41
-2
67.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 8 yds to the Vandy 49 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Vandy 39Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+61
68.0%
Keyon Brooks run for 61 yds for a TD, (Javan Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:2732% → 32%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.9%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
68.0%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
68.1%
Ross Bowers sacked by Elijah McAllister for a loss of 10 yards to the NoIll 18Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+22
68.4%
Matt Ference punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 31 , Justice Shelton-Mosley returns for 22 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:4969% → 72%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
68.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for no gain to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
68.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+17
68.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 17 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
68.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 9 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Javan Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
70.8%
Jordan Nettles run for 34 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
70.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Nettles for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 17
OPP 48
0
70.8%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+5
70.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 5 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 12
OPP 43
+38
70.9%
Matt Ference punt for 43 yds for a touchback NORTHERNIL Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 1 yd to the Vandy 26Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
72.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 8 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
72.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
72.3%
Harrison Smith punt for 54 yds , Cole Tucker returns for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3426% → 25%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
73.7%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 6
OWN 11
-2
73.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 7 yds to the NoIll 18 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding (-9 Yards) to the NoIll 9Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+1
73.8%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the NoIll 10Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
74.9%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 7
OWN 10
+2
75.0%
Matt Ference punt for 36 yds , Justice Shelton-Mosley returns for 2 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
76.3%
Riley Neal sacked by Camron Mattox for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 17
OWN 49
+6
76.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 6 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 11
OPP 45
-5
75.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 16
50
+5
75.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justice Shelton-Mosley for 5 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
75.5%
Harrison Smith punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:5324% → 22%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
75.6%
Tyrice Richie run for 7 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+20
75.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 20 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
75.2%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
75.4%
Jordan Nettles run for 1 yd to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-15
75.5%
[SH], BOWERS, Ross pass complete to RICHIE, Tyrice for 15 yards to the VANDY37, out-of-bounds (Randall Haynie), PENALTY NIU pass interference (GAY, Rayshawn) 15 yards to the NIU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 33
+18
76.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 18 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
77.9%
Ross Bowers punt for 40 yds, downed at the Vandy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+39
78.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 39 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
79.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Cam Johnson, broken up by Michael KennedySimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
79.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cam Johnson for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 8
50
0
79.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 8
50
0
78.5%
Harrison Smith punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
78.8%
Jordan Nettles run for 10 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
78.6%
Jordan Nettles run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (Dayo Odeyingbo) to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
78.2%
Jordan Nettles run for 10 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
77.5%
Tre Harbison run for 10 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
77.2%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+11
76.5%
Tyrice Richie run for 11 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
76.5%
Jordan Nettles run for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 16
OPP 28
-1
77.5%
Ross Bowers sacked by Brandon Maddox for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 17
OPP 29
-12
78.4%
Ross Bowers sacked by Elijah McAllister for a loss of 12 yards to the Vandy 41Similar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 29
OPP 41
0
78.9%
Matt Ference punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
81.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cam Johnson for 15 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
81.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-1
81.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 36Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
81.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
80.6%
Harrison Smith punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
82.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 6 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+4
81.8%
Jordan Nettles run for 4 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.1%
Jordan Nettles run for 7 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
81.7%
Tre Harbison run for no gain to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (Dimitri Moore) to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
81.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
81.4%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+11
82.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 11 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
80.5%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 4
OPP 47
-5
81.4%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
82.1%
Matt Ference punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
84.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Vandy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14FG
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:0217% → 21%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+44
82.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 44 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
80.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
80.6%
Tre Harbison run for 7 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+1
81.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tre Harbison for 1 yd to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+39
78.6%
John Richardson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:3180% → 82%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
80.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 13 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
81.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justice Shelton-Mosley for 6 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-15
81.4%
[SH], Ke'Shawn Vaughn rush for no gain to the VANDY44 (PATTON, Brayden), PENALTY VANDY personal foul (Saige Young) 15 yards to the VANDY29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 19
OWN 29
0
80.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to C.J. BolarSimilar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+8
81.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 8 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+45
81.5%
Harrison Smith punt for 45 yds , Cole Tucker returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 3:3418% → 32%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
82.4%
Tre Harbison run for 10 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
82.2%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+5
81.7%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
81.8%
Jordan Nettles run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 32Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
82.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+23
83.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 23 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
80.6%
[SH], BOWERS, Ross pass incomplete to TEARS, Spencer, PENALTY VANDY pass interference (BJ Anderson) 7 yards to the VANDY38, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
80.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tre HarbisonSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
68.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 38 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4972% → 86%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
72.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cam Johnson for 15 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
74.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
50
+12
74.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 12 yds to the NoIll 38 Ke'Shawn Vaughn fumbled, forced by Antwain Walker, recovered by Vandy for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
86.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 38 yds for a TD, (Javan Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
84.6%
[SH], HARBISON, Tre rush for 5 yards to the NIU30 (Dimitri Moore), PENALTY NIU holding (VELOZ, Nathan) 10 yards to the NIU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-5
84.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (Marques Cox) to the NoIll 10Similar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 25
OWN 10
+15
84.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 15 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
84.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice Richie, broken up by Randall HaynieSimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
85.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Daniel CrawfordSimilar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
85.8%
Matt Ference punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 5:0687% → 94%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
87.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Keyon Brooks for 5 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+7
87.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-9
87.0%
Riley Neal sacked by Marcus Kelly for a loss of 9 yards to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 19
OWN 49
+8
86.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Cole) to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
87.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+24
87.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 24 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
87.2%
Keyon Brooks run for no gain to the NoIll 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-10
89.7%
[SH], Ke'Shawn Vaughn rush for no gain to the NIU14 (JONES-DAVIS, A;LABUS, Vinny), PENALTY VANDY holding (67) 10 yards to the NIU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+14
89.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 14 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
89.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
94.2%
Javan Rice 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:027% → 27%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
92.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 18 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
92.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (Jordan Steckler) to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
92.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
92.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+28
92.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 28 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+33
91.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 33 yds to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.8%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Bowers pass to Mitchell Brinkman for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
84.4%
Justice Shelton-Mosley run for 4 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
84.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cam Johnson for 5 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
84.0%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
84.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
84.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cam Johnson for 4 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-5
84.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Devin Cochran) to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
83.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris PierceSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Harrison Smith punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:3018% → 12%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
81.9%
Jordan Nettles run for 6 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
80.7%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+10
81.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Rayshawn Gay for 10 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
79.8%
Tre Harbison run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 1
50
0
77.4%
Tre Harbison run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 1
50
+4
78.1%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
77.7%
Ross Bowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 38 Ross Bowers fumbled, recovered by NoIll Ross Bowers , return for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 38 , return for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 26
OWN 38
+10
86.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 10 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 16
OWN 48
0
87.0%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
87.8%
Matt Ference punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:2393% → 95%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
92.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 18 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
93.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+7
94.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 7 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+7
95.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
95.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 12
OWN 44
-1
95.3%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 43Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 13
OWN 43
-2
94.9%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:44
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Bowers pass to Mitchell Brinkman for Two-Point Conversion)
-18.7
TD · Q3 7:01
Ross Bowers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 38 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)
-12.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:44
Justice Shelton-Mosley run for 4 yds to the Vandy 19
+11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com