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MSST

Mississippi State 23 at Auburn 56

AUB
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:05 · Tucker Day punt for 39 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 9 yds to the MisSt 31 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Home team on offense+0.7Score differential+0.2Pregame prior+18.4Blowout margin+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:59: Anthony Schwartz run for 13 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:20: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann PAT MISSED) — MSST win probability +4.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:18: JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +7.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 7:55: Jace Christmann 27 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +5.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:33: Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 39 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:04MSST 4th & 29 at MSST 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:33MSST 4th & 1 at AUB 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−0.7
    84% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:55MSST 4th & 8 at AUB 9, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:31MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 28, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:01MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 39, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:28MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 36, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:29AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 22, up 40
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:47MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 27, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:46MSST 4th & 13 at AUB 32, down 40
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:03AUB 4th & 3 at MSST 23, up 40
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:55AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:46AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:59AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:20MSST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:18AUB Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:33AUB Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:12AUB Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:28AUB Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:13MSST Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:16AUB Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:50MSST Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -19 yds · 1:5630% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
69.6%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
69.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 7 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-16
69.5%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Jeremiah Dinson for a loss of 16 yards to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 24
OWN 11
-5
69.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 6Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 29
OWN 6
+18
69.5%
Tucker Day punt for 42 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 18 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
70.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 30 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4330% → 30%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.0%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
70.1%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
70.4%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry, broken up by Roger McCrearySimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+9
70.5%
Tucker Day punt for 39 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 9 yds to the MisSt 31 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:0771% → 73%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
70.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+22
70.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 22 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
71.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+16
71.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 6 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (C.J. Morgan) to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
72.7%
Bo Nix run for 9 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:3573% → 75%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
72.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 5 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
75.2%
Anthony Schwartz run for 13 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:3126% → 25%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
75.8%
Kylin Hill run for 13 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
76.2%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
76.8%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+10
77.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 10 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
77.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 24 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
76.8%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the Aub 17Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
77.2%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
77.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+3
80.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
80.0%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
75.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:4477% → 88%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
77.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 6 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+9
77.5%
Bo Nix run for 9 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
77.7%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-1
78.3%
Kam Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+30
78.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 30 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
79.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 7 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+1
79.1%
Malik Miller run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+8
78.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 8 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
79.5%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+8
79.8%
Anthony Schwartz run for 8 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:1614% → 17%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
85.8%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+13
85.8%
Garrett Shrader run for 13 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
86.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 10 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
86.4%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
86.7%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+18
87.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Kylin Hill for 18 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
87.8%
Nick Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 12Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
88.2%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Geor'quarius SpiveySimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+3
88.8%
Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
83.3%
Jace Christmann 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:1387% → 94%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
86.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sal Cannella for 8 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+1
86.9%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+30
87.1%
Bo Nix run for 30 yds to the MisSt 35 Bo Nix fumbled, forced by C.J. Morgan, recovered by AubSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
87.7%
Bo Nix sacked by Kobe Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+39
93.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 39 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:528% → 7%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Kylin Hill for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
92.2%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
93.0%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+7
93.1%
Tucker Day punt for 45 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 7 yds to the Aub 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:3894% → 94%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
94.3%
Eli Stove run for 3 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+11
94.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 11 yds Seth Williams fumbled, forced by Leo Lewis, recovered by MisSt Leo LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:538% → 5%
Q2 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+47
92.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 47 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Daniel Thomas) to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
91.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Dareuan Parker) to the Aub 5Similar
Q2 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-11
95.0%
Garrett Shrader run for a loss of 11 yards to the Aub 16 Garrett Shrader fumbled, forced by Owen Pappoe, recovered by Aub Jeremiah DinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 2:3295% → 98%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
94.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Daniel Thomas) to the Aub 8Similar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
95.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 7Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+1
95.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 8Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+15
96.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth Williams for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Erroll Thompson) to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+14
96.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 14 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
96.3%
Kam Martin run for 5 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
96.6%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
96.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Will Hastings for 4 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+48
96.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 48 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2598% → 99%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
98.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 19 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
98.3%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+21
98.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Will Hastings for 21 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
98.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 32 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:191% → 1%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 15 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.8%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-9
98.9%
Garrett Shrader sacked by K.J. Britt for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+7
99.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
99.1%
Tucker Day punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:4199% → 99%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+27
99.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 27 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
99.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 10 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+6
99.4%
Shaun Shivers run for 6 yds to the MisSt 35 Shaun Shivers fumbled, recovered by MisSt Leo LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.2%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-2
99.3%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
99.5%
Reed Bowman punt for 51 yds, downed at the Aub 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5099% → 100%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
99.4%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+7
99.5%
Bo Nix run for 7 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
99.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
99.5%
Arryn Siposs punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 3:070% → 0%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 8 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+2
99.6%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
99.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 13 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
99.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 20 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
99.6%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
99.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 21 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.6%
Kam Martin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
99.7%
Anthony Schwartz run for 4 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+31
99.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sal Cannella for 31 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.7%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Williams, Seth, PENALTY MISSSTATE offside 5 yards to the MISSSTATE39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 5
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+16
99.7%
Kam Martin run for 16 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
99.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 16 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Kam Martin run for 7 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.8%
Garrett Shrader run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 22 Garrett Shrader fumbled, recovered by MisSt Garrett ShraderSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
99.8%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (T.D. Moultry) to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell, broken up by Jamien SherwoodSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Reed Bowman punt for 31 yds, downed at the Aub 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.9%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the Aub 43Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-7
99.9%
Joey Gatewood sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 16
OWN 36
+16
99.9%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Malik Miller for 16 yds Malik Miller fumbled, forced by Marquiss Spencer, recovered by MisSt Aaron BruleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+20
99.9%
Garrett Shrader run for 20 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber, broken up by Roger McCrearySimilar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
99.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 15
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete, broken up by Coynis Miller Jr.Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+12
99.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 12 yds to the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:34100% → 100%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.9%
D.J. Williams run for 9 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+8
99.9%
D.J. Williams run for 8 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.9%
D.J. Williams run for 8 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-1
99.9%
D.J. Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+26
99.9%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Zach Farrar for 10 yds to the AUBURN 46 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Martin Emerson) to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Joey Gatewood pass incomplete to Zach FarrarSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.9%
D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+4
100.0%
D.J. Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+1
100.0%
Joey Gatewood run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
100.0%
Lee Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the MisSt 23Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+16
100.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Michael Harris) to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
100.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+12
100.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 12 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+39
100.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 30 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Sideline Interference (9 Yards) to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
100.0%
Lee Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
100.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:20100% → 100%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:18
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+7.8
TD · Q2 5:33
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 39 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+6.2
FG · Q2 7:55
Jace Christmann 27 yd FG GOOD
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com