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MISS

Ole Miss 31 at Alabama 59

ALA
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:45 · Mac Brown punt for 42 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 30 Jaylen Waddle fumbled, recovered by Miss A.J. Finley
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+48.3Home team on offense+0.4Score differential+0.1Blowout margin+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:52: Tua Tagovailoa run for 7 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:51: Joseph Bulovas 36 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +0.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:01: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:45: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 23 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:23: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 33 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6MISS made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 12:45MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:15ALA 4th & 14 at MISS 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:36MISS 4th & 12 at ALA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:09MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:51ALA 4th & 4 at MISS 17, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:19MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:54MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:40MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 33, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:26MISS 4th & 9 at ALA 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:53ALA 4th & 4 at MISS 10, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:29MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:54MISS 4th & 2 at ALA 37, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:23ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 46, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:23MISS 4th & 7 at ALA 26, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:10ALA 4th & 1 at MISS 39, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:38MISS 4th & 6 at ALA 38, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:17ALA 4th & 4 at MISS 30, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:30MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 39, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:50ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:20MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:52ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:01ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:45ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:23ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:49ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:29MISS Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:29ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:23MISS Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:57ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:05MISS Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 0:5599% → 99%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
98.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 8 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+8
98.9%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
98.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Miller ForristallSimilar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+74
98.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 74 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:401% → 1%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
98.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+5
98.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
98.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 3
OWN 22
-6
98.8%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 30 Jaylen Waddle fumbled, recovered by Miss A.J. FinleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:501% → 2%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
98.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 13 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
98.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+2
98.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+4
98.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Alab 2Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Alab 1Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:5399% → 98%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
98.5%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass incomplete to Jeudy, Jerry, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Julius, Jalen) 15 yards to the ALABAMA45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
98.5%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 5
50
+2
98.5%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+11
98.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 11 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
98.4%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Benito Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 16
OPP 43
+9
98.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-2
98.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 9
OPP 36
-5
98.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Landon Dickerson) to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
98.1%
Skyler DeLong punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:242% → 3%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
98.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 15 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
98.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+28
98.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 28 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
97.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+5
97.9%
Plumlee, John Rhys pass incomplete, PENALTY ALABAMA offside 5 yards to the ALABAMA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+2
97.8%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+2
97.8%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
97.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+1
97.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 1 yd to the Alab 16Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
97.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
97.6%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-2
97.5%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 12Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-5
97.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 17Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+1
97.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Alab 16Similar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+33
97.3%
Luke Logan 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:3897% → 97%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
97.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 12 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
97.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 10 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
97.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 17 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
97.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 10 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
97.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 1 yd to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+11
97.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 11 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
96.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for no gain to the Miss 5 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
96.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.2%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 7 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:313% → 3%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 13 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
96.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+1
96.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
96.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
96.9%
Mac Brown punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8FG
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:1197% → 97%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+45
96.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 45 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
96.9%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass complete to Jeudy, Jerry for no gain to the OLEMISS37, PENALTY OLEMISS substitution infraction 5 yards to the OLEMISS32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 5
OPP 32
+9
96.9%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
96.9%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
96.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+1
96.7%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 1 yd to the Miss 17Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+36
97.1%
Joseph Bulovas 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:243% → 3%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
97.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 5 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
97.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
96.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+2
96.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
96.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+29
97.0%
Mac Brown punt for 37 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 29 yds to the Alab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:1197% → 98%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
97.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-5
96.9%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass complete to Jeudy, Jerry for 12 yards to the OLEMISS35, PENALTY ALABAMA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ALABAMA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+25
96.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 25 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
97.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 2 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
96.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+25
97.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:063% → 3%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
97.5%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Miss 14Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
97.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+4
97.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Scottie Phillips for 4 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 5
OWN 18
+27
97.5%
Mac Brown punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALABAMA 45 OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:3098% → 99%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
97.6%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
97.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 9 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
97.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
97.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Brian Robinson Jr.Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
97.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 23 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
98.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
98.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Octavious CooleySimilar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+29
98.7%
Mac Brown punt for 39 yds for a 1ST down , Jaylen Waddle returns for 29 yds to the ALABAMA 38 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Tripping (Mac Brown) to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:1399% → 100%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
99.2%
Harris, Najee rush for 13 yards to the OLEMISS15, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal shift 5 yards to the OLEMISS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+33
99.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 33 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-12
99.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Miss 39 OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 22
OWN 24
+4
99.7%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 28
0
99.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:142% → 0%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
97.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
99.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+16
99.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 16 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
99.7%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Terrell Lewis for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
99.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+6
99.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Mac Brown punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 21 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.8%
Harris, Najee rush for 5 yards to the ALABAMA46, PENALTY OLEMISS holding 5 yards to the ALABAMA46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+12
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
99.8%
Harris, Najee rush for loss of 4 yards to the OLEMISS46, PENALTY OLEMISS personal foul 15 yards to the OLEMISS27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 27 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
99.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 11 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+32
99.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 32 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
99.8%
Plumlee, John Rhys pass incomplete to Mingo, Jonathan, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 11 yards to the ALABAMA16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
99.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
99.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 9 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19MISSED FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+21
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Miller Forristall for 21 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+5
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Miller ForristallSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
99.9%
Joseph Bulovas 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Ale Kaho 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:160% → 0%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
99.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 20 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+10
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 10 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 2 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 1:23
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Skyler DeLong punt for 37 yds, downed at the Miss 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+26
99.9%
Snoop Conner run for 26 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
99.9%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+18
99.9%
Snoop Conner run for 18 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+13
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 13 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+1
99.9%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+26
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 26 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:03100% → 100%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 15 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 12 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 12
50
+11
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 11 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
Slade Bolden run for 5 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 13 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 3 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-1
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Benito Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+19
100.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Miller Forristall for 19 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+30
100.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 30 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
100.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
100.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
100.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+36
100.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass intercepted Jared Mayden return for 36 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
50
+8
100.0%
Keilan Robinson run for 8 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+6
100.0%
Keilan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
100.0%
Keilan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
100.0%
Keilan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Keilan Robinson run for no gain to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John MetchieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
100.0%
Grant Tisdale run for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
100.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
100.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+5
100.0%
Grant Tisdale run for 5 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+28
100.0%
Grant Tisdale pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 28 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
100.0%
Grant Tisdale pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 28 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:45
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 23 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 6:01
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 1:23
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 33 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com