Try the model
LSU

LSU 66 at Vanderbilt 38

VAN
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · FirstBank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:10 · Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior−30.7Home team on offense−31.3Score differential−15.5Garbage-time factor−5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:51: Ja'Marr Chase 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:56: Ja'Marr Chase 51 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:49: Elijah McAllister 0 Yd Fumble Return (Ryley Guay Kick) — VAN win probability +1.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:25: Ke'Shawn Vaughn 52 Yd Run (Ryley Guay Kick) — VAN win probability +3.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:22: Micah Baskerville 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 10 of 10LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 8:49VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:54VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:06VAN 4th & 1 at LSU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:14VAN 4th & 17 at LSU 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:12LSU 4th & 15 at VAN 39, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:36VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:55LSU 4th & 7 at VAN 7, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:26VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:10LSU 4th & 1 at VAN 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:22VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:45LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 13, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:06VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 48, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:10LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 42, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:43VAN 4th & 16 at VAN 1, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:36VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 25, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:07LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 43, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:39LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 11:04VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:51LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:38LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:58LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:51LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:56LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:49VAN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 14:48LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 13:25VAN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 9:29LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 7:22LSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 1:06VAN Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 9:37LSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 1:51VAN Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:485% → 6%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
4.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 41 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
4.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
5.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+5
5.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
5.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+11
5.4%
Riley Neal run for 11 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
5.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
6.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn 5 Yd Run (Ryley Guay Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0494% → 94%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
6.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 20 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+46
6.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 46 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
6.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Clyde Edwards-HelaireSimilar
Q1 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
6.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
6.0%
Justin Jefferson 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:536% → 6%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
6.4%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
6.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+1
6.3%
Harrison Smith punt for 37 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 1 yd to the LSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
5.8%
Ja'Marr Chase 64 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:346% → 6%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
6.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 22Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
6.1%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
6.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 2 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
6.2%
Harrison Smith punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:3594% → 94%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+29
6.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 29 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
6.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 20 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
6.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+7
6.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 7 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
5.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 9 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:316% → 7%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
6.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 36 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
6.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
6.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 1 yd to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+4
6.4%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
6.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:0294% → 95%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
6.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 12 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
6.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 4 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
6.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 14 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
4.7%
Ja'Marr Chase 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:165% → 6%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
4.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 8 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
4.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
4.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
4.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justice Shelton-Mosley for 9 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+28
5.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cam Johnson for 28 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
5.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+10
5.1%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
5.2%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
5.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-7
5.1%
Riley Neal sacked by Justin Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 17
OPP 23
+41
6.0%
Ryley Guay 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:5295% → 91%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
5.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 10 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
5.0%
Lanard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+30
5.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 30 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
4.9%
Joe Burrow sacked by Jaylen Mahoney for a loss of 10 yards to the Vandy 44Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+5
8.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 5 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 15
OPP 39
0
8.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
9.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Justice Shelton-Mosley at the Vandy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:267% → 7%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
6.8%
Keyon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Vandy 9Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+2
6.8%
Keyon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Vandy 11Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
6.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris PierceSimilar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
6.8%
Harrison Smith punt for 46 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for no gain to the LSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:3591% → 93%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
8.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 14 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+35
8.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 28 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Personal Foul (7 Yards) to the Vandy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
8.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the Vandy 3Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
7.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the Vandy 7Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
7.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Thaddeus MossSimilar
Q2 5:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
7.8%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
6.6%
Cade York 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:266% → 6%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
5.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
5.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
5.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 34Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
5.6%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
5.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris PierceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 1:4994% → 96%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
6.3%
John Emery Jr. run for 6 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
6.1%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
6.0%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
6.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 7 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+7
5.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 7 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
5.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
5.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to John Emery Jr.Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+13
5.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 13 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
3.6%
Ja'Marr Chase 51 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:243% → 3%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
3.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to C.J. BolarSimilar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
3.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
2.6%
Harrison Smith punt for 63 yds, downed at the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2696% → 95%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
3.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 7
OWN 8
-3
3.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 5
0
5.0%
Elijah McAllister 0 Yd Fumble Return (Ryley Guay Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
4.4%
Joe Burrow sacked by Kenny Hebert for a loss of 10 yards to the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0397% → 98%
Q3 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
3.5%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 6Similar
Q3 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
2.5%
Racey McMath 6 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:152% → 5%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
2.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 22Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+26
2.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cam Johnson for 26 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
5.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn 52 Yd Run (Ryley Guay Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4696% → 98%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
3.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+25
3.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 25 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
3.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+1
3.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 1 yd to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
3.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+1
3.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
3.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
3.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 5 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+8
2.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 8 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
2.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
1.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 16 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21PUNT TD
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:582% → 1%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
2.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
2.1%
Riley Neal sacked by Damone Clark for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 23Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
0.7%
Micah Baskerville 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22INT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris PierceSimilar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
0.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 19 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
0.7%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
0.8%
Keyon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
0.7%
Riley Neal pass intercepted Derek Stingley Jr. return for no gain to the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
0.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
0.6%
Chris Curry run for 3 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
0.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
0.8%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Justice Shelton-Mosley at the Vandy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:291% → 1%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
0.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
0.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+8
0.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 8 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+30
0.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 30 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
0.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-1
0.4%
Keyon Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 18Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+18
0.5%
Kalija Lipscomb 18 Yd pass from Riley Neal (Ryley Guay Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5099% → 100%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
1.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
0.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 5 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-1
0.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
0.4%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 51 yds, downed at the Vandy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
0.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+2
0.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 5
OWN 12
-11
0.2%
Riley Neal sacked by Damone Clark and Breiden Fehoko for a loss of 11 yards to the Vandy 1Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 16
OWN 1
0
0.2%
Harrison Smith punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
0.3%
John Emery Jr. run for 1 yd to the Vandy 35Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+5
0.3%
Myles Brennan run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+20
0.3%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Racey McMath for 20 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
0.2%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds to the Vandy 6Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.2%
John Emery Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Keyon Brooks run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to Justice Shelton-MosleySimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Deuce Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
Harrison Smith punt for 43 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 1 yd to the LSU 26 LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
0.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 8 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 2
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+9
0.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 9 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
0.2%
Myles Brennan run for 9 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
0.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 30INT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
0.1%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Justice Shelton-Mosley for 2 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+1
0.1%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 1 yd to the Vandy 35Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+12
0.1%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to James Bostic for 12 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
0.1%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+8
0.1%
Ja'Veon Marlow run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 7
50
+8
0.1%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 8 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to Chris PierceSimilar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Deuce Wallace pass intercepted JaCoby Stevens return for no gain to the LSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 31INT TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+21
0.1%
John Emery Jr. run for 21 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.1%
John Emery Jr. run for no gain to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+47
0.1%
Myles Brennan pass intercepted for a TD Randall Haynie return for 47 yds for a TD, (Javan Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 32PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
0.1%
Chris Curry run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+9
0.1%
Chris Curry run for 9 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
0.1%
Chris Curry run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+11
0.1%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 56 yds , Justice Shelton-Mosley returns for 11 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 33END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:150% → 0%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
0.1%
Ja'Veon Marlow run for 4 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+7
0.0%
Ja'Veon Marlow run for 7 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:25
Ke'Shawn Vaughn 52 Yd Run (Ryley Guay Kick)
+3
TD · Q2 0:49
Elijah McAllister 0 Yd Fumble Return (Ryley Guay Kick)
+1.9
TD · Q2 1:56
Ja'Marr Chase 51 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)
-1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com