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AUB

Auburn 28 at Texas A&M 20

TA&M
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:45 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:39: John Samuel Shenker 6 Yd pass from Joey Gatewood (Anders Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +5.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:05: Seth Williams 9 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Anders Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +16.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:28: Quartney Davis 27 Yd pass from Kellen Mond (Seth Small Kick) — TA&M win probability +15.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:27: JaTarvious Whitlow 8 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +7.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:12: Ainias Smith 15 Yd pass from Kellen Mond (Seth Small Kick) — TA&M win probability +7.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 9AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 7:49TA&M 4th & 6 at AUB 31, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:40AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:15TA&M 4th & 16 at TA&M 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:59TA&M 4th & 4 at AUB 16, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:26AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:54TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:13AUB 4th & 14 at AUB 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:35TA&M 4th & 16 at TA&M 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:47AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:34TA&M 4th & 5 at AUB 47, down 11
    Close callPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:07AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 6, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−3.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:13TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:50AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 17, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:04TA&M 4th & 19 at TA&M 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−4.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:06AUB 4th & 9 at TA&M 45, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%−1.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:36TA&M 4th & 6 at AUB 6, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.0%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−3.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:30AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 23, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 2AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:19AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:39AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:05AUB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:28TA&M Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:27AUB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:12TA&M Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.8 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%−1.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3636% → 37%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
64.3%
Bo Nix run for 7 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
64.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+7
64.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Harold Joiner for 7 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
64.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Aub 43Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+57
63.5%
Anthony Schwartz 57 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2MISSED FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 5:1864% → 62%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
63.6%
Jacob Kibodi run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 20Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-1
63.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 19Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+19
63.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 19 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
62.9%
Jacob Kibodi run for 2 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+13
62.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 13 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
62.9%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jacob KibodiSimilar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
62.7%
Kellen Mond run for 2 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+10
62.5%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
62.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
62.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 4 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
62.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+47
61.5%
Seth Small 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5839% → 40%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
60.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
50
+1
59.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the TexAM 49Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
59.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-5
59.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-6
60.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
60.3%
Arryn Siposs punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:1660% → 58%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
60.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 5
OWN 33
-2
60.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 31Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
59.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 6 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
59.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 1
OWN 37
-15
58.9%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the TexAM 22Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 16
OWN 22
+30
58.2%
Braden Mann punt for 54 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 30 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:2643% → 49%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
57.5%
Bo Nix run for 3 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
57.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+12
57.1%
Eli Stove run for 12 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
56.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 18 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
56.3%
Malik Miller run for 2 yds to the TexAM 6Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
50.7%
John Samuel Shenker 6 Yd pass from Joey Gatewood (Anders Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:2652% → 54%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
52.2%
Kellen Mond run for 17 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
52.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 41 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
53.7%
Jacob Kibodi run for 1 yd to the Aub 21Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+4
53.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for 4 yds to the Aub 17Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+1
51.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for 1 yd to the Aub 16Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
54.1%
Seth Small 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2147% → 48%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.6%
Joey Gatewood run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
52.2%
Shaun Shivers run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
52.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.5%
Arryn Siposs punt for 50 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for 1 yd to the TexAM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 4:1752% → 47%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
52.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 2 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
51.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 7 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
50.9%
Kellen Mond run for 2 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
51.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+13
50.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 13 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
50.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 42Similar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
48.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Isaiah SpillerSimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
48.2%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+4
47.1%
Kellen Mond run for 4 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
46.5%
Braden Mann punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3552% → 52%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
48.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
47.8%
Eli Stove run for 1 yd to the Aub 21Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-5
47.8%
Bo Nix sacked by Justin Madubuike for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 16Similar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+7
47.9%
Arryn Siposs punt for 49 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for 7 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2047% → 43%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
46.6%
Jacob Kibodi run for no gain to the TexAM 42Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
46.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-6
44.7%
Kellen Mond sacked by Derrick Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
43.0%
Braden Mann punt for 56 yds, downed at the Aub 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2155% → 56%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
45.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the Aub 8Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+16
45.1%
Bo Nix run for 16 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
43.9%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
43.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
43.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
44.3%
Arryn Siposs punt for 54 yds, downed at the TexAM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:5642% → 42%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
42.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 10 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
42.8%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
42.2%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+18
40.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 18 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
44.1%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
43.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for 5 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
44.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
42.4%
Braden Mann punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:2060% → 61%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
40.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+1
40.5%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the Aub 10Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 6
OWN 10
-4
39.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 6Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 10
OWN 6
0
39.5%
Arryn Siposs punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14DOWNS
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0442% → 44%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
42.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+52
43.6%
Seth Small 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
39.7%
Isaiah Spiller run for 13 yds to the TexAM 38 Isaiah Spiller fumbled, recovered by Aub Daniel ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:2062% → 81%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
38.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 8 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+9
37.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 9 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
37.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+12
36.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 12 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
36.0%
AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 13Similar
Q3 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
35.7%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the TexAM 9Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
19.2%
Seth Williams 9 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Anders Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:3224% → 21%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
23.6%
Kellen Mond sacked by Derrick Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 30 Kellen Mond fumbled, recovered by TexAM , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-5
22.6%
Kellen Mond sacked by Tyrone Truesdell for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 25Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 20
OWN 25
-5
21.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 25
OWN 20
-5
21.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 15Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 30
OWN 15
+22
20.6%
Jacob Kibodi run for 22 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
20.5%
Braden Mann punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0982% → 83%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
18.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 18Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-1
17.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Harold Joiner for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 17Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
17.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
17.2%
Arryn Siposs punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the TexAM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:2420% → 17%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
19.8%
Kellen Mond run for 1 yd to the TexAM 38Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
19.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Glenn Beal for no gain to the TexAM 38Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
18.5%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 9
OWN 38
-5
18.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 33Similar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 14
OWN 33
-5
17.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 28Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 19
OWN 28
+22
17.4%
Braden Mann punt for 68 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 22 yds to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:4986% → 90%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
14.0%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
13.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+12
13.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 12 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
12.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 17 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
11.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+2
9.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-5
9.4%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 45Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
9.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 9
OPP 45
+30
9.8%
Arryn Siposs punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the TexAM 10 AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:1014% → 28%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
13.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 7 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+1
13.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 1 yd to the TexAM 23Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+12
12.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 12 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
12.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 7 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
12.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
50
+5
11.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+13
12.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 13 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
13.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 27Similar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 5
OPP 27
0
12.7%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+27
28.4%
Quartney Davis 27 Yd pass from Kellen Mond (Seth Small Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 5:4777% → 97%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
22.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 9 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+4
20.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
19.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+7
18.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
18.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the TexAM 42Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
18.0%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+7
15.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 7 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
14.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 9 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+2
13.5%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the TexAM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
13.1%
Bo Nix run for 8 yds to the TexAM 11Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+3
12.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
3.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow 8 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 2:245% → 8%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
5.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 8 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
5.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 6 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
5.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+17
4.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 17 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
5.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 12 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
5.8%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference 14 yards to the AUBURN18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
5.9%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Caleb ChapmanSimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+16
5.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 16 yds to the Aub 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
4.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the Aub 1Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.8%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
3.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 6Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
3.5%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
7.6%
Seth Small 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24FUMBLE
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:4296% → 97%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
3.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
3.7%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
3.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-8
3.3%
Arryn Siposs punt for 50 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 19 Roshauud Paul fumbled, recovered by TexAM Isaiah SpillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 2:083% → 11%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
3.4%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+18
3.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 18 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
3.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Kendrick RogersSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
3.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for 11 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
3.1%
Kellen Mond run for 16 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
3.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 13 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
3.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 18Similar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+3
3.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 3 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+15
11.2%
Ainias Smith 15 Yd pass from Kellen Mond (Seth Small Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:2196% → 97%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
50
+2
4.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
3.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
2.8%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:05
Seth Williams 9 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Anders Carlson Kick)
-16.6
TD · Q4 14:28
Quartney Davis 27 Yd pass from Kellen Mond (Seth Small Kick)
+15.7
TD · Q4 8:27
JaTarvious Whitlow 8 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com