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UK

Kentucky 13 at Mississippi State 28

MSST
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:10 · Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 21 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense+16.9Pregame prior+7.1Score differential+6.7Garbage-time factor+5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4Time remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 2:49: Chance Poore 40 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +2.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:24: Kylin Hill run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — UK win probability +2.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:45: Kylin Hill run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +8.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:30: Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK) — UK win probability +11.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:39: Kylin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:35UK 4th & 15 at UK 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:14MSST 4th & 10 at UK 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:49UK 4th & 6 at MSST 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:18UK 4th & 12 at UK 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:07UK 4th & 14 at UK 38, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:05UK 4th & 20 at MSST 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−2.3
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:10UK 4th & 8 at MSST 33, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:30MSST 4th & 3 at UK 49, up 11
    Close callPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:15UK 4th & 8 at MSST 8, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−5.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:15MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:11UK 4th & 1 at MSST 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−1.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:39UK 4th & 5 at MSST 11, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.0%−0.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:34UK 4th & 10 at UK 34, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:34UK 4th & 10 at UK 46, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:35MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:45MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:30UK Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:39MSST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1INT TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:2532% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.7%
Asim Rose run for 8 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
67.7%
Asim Rose run for 10 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
67.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 5 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+52
67.9%
Willie Gay Jr. 52 Yd Interception Return (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 3
OWN 0
0
68.0%
PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 3
OWN 0
0
68.4%
PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 4 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
68.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 11 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
68.3%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 12 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
68.3%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
68.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 47Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 15
OWN 47
0
68.4%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
68.4%
Max Duffy punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
70.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 4 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+18
70.4%
Kylin Hill run for 18 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
70.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 5 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
70.7%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 2
50
+2
70.5%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
70.7%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the Kent 48Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
70.7%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete, broken up by Tyrell AjianSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
70.5%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber, broken up by Yusuf CorkerSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
70.2%
Tucker Day punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:2228% → 26%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
71.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden, QB hurry by Lee Autry, PENALTY UK holding (Naasir Watkins) 10 yards to the UK10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+31
71.9%
Asim Rose run for 31 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
71.7%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
71.8%
Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+15
71.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 15 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
71.4%
Kavosiey Smoke run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+15
71.6%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 15 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
71.0%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+1
71.0%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
71.2%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Ahmad WagnerSimilar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
73.7%
Chance Poore 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2575% → 75%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.8%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
74.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 3 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
74.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Malik Dear for 8 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
75.3%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+21
75.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 21 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
75.5%
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
76.9%
Garrett Shrader run for 7 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+5
76.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense (Quinton Bohanna) to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
77.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 13 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
74.6%
Kylin Hill run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
72.8%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 4 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+19
72.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 19 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
71.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-2
72.1%
Kavosiey Smoke run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-4
72.9%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Fletcher Adams for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 44 Sawyer Smith fumbled, recovered by Kent Drake Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
73.5%
Max Duffy punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:5175% → 85%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
75.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 1 yd to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+36
74.9%
Garrett Shrader run for 36 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
76.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 13 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
76.1%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 34Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+12
75.7%
Garrett Shrader run for 12 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
75.6%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
76.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 4 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+13
76.1%
Kylin Hill run for 13 yds to the Kent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
76.0%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the Kent 2Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.6%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:3816% → 16%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
83.6%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 17 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
82.9%
Lynn Bowden Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-7
83.3%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Tim Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+3
84.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 3 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
84.5%
Max Duffy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10INT
5 plays · 51 yds · 0:0084% → 85%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
83.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 14 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
83.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+9
84.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 9 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
84.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Austin Williams for 20 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+39
84.6%
Garrett Shrader pass intercepted Quandre Mosely return for 39 yds to the MisSt 0 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 20 yds · 0:4317% → 15%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
83.5%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Justin Rigg, broken up by Chauncey RiversSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+30
84.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 30 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
82.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., broken up by Jaquarius LandrewsSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-5
82.2%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Landon Young) to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 15
OPP 24
0
83.5%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., broken up by Erroll ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 15
OPP 24
-5
85.1%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Chauncey Rivers for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 20
OPP 0
0
85.4%
PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 20
OPP 29
+47
85.3%
Chance Poore 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
86.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13FUMBLE
12 plays · 55 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
86.4%
Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
86.5%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+7
86.8%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
86.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 7 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-2
86.5%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+20
86.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Malik Dear for 20 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
86.6%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+2
86.6%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
86.6%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete, broken up by Yusuf CorkerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
86.6%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the Kent 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-5
86.4%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Brandin Echols for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 20 Garrett Shrader fumbled, recovered by Kent Jamari Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:409% → 19%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
90.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 20 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
90.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Justin RiggSimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+25
90.3%
Asim Rose run for 25 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
89.1%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
89.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner, broken up by C.J. MorganSimilar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
89.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+21
90.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 21 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
88.7%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Clevan Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
88.7%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Josh Ali, broken up by Cameron DantzlerSimilar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+10
92.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner, PENALTY MS pass interference (Cam Dantzler) 10 yards to the MS2, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.1%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.3%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
85.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Michael Story) to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
85.2%
Kylin Hill rush for no gain to the MS26 (Tyrell Ajian), PENALTY MS holding (Michael Story) 10 yards to the MS16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+3
85.0%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+25
84.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 25 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
86.2%
Malik Dear run for no gain to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
85.9%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
85.5%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Geor'quarius Spivey, broken up by Calvin Taylor Jr.Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
84.8%
Tucker Day punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:2312% → 12%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
87.7%
Asim Rose run for 18 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Ahmad WagnerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+39
86.8%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 39 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
84.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Clevan Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+6
84.1%
Asim Rose run for 6 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
84.1%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the MisSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Ahmad WagnerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
85.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Keaton UpshawSimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
87.9%
Chance Poore 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
89.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 5 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+14
89.6%
Kylin Hill run for 14 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
90.3%
Garrett Shrader run for no gain to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-9
90.2%
Garrett Shrader sacked by DeAndre Square for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+11
88.9%
Garrett Shrader run for 11 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+25
89.3%
Tucker Day punt for 50 yds , Lynn Bowden Jr. returns for 25 yds to the Kent 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:329% → 12%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
91.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 20 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
90.1%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
89.6%
Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
89.8%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+1
90.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
90.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Justin Rigg, broken up by Jaquarius LandrewsSimilar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+20
90.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 20 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-15
88.9%
Kavosiey Smoke rush for 2 yards to the MS14 (Cam Dantzler), PENALTY UK face mask (Logan Stenberg) 15 yards to the MS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 25
OPP 31
+15
89.4%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Josh Ali, PENALTY MS pass interference (Tyler Williams) 15 yards to the MS16, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
88.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., broken up by Cameron DantzlerSimilar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
88.9%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 5 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
89.7%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner, broken up by Cameron DantzlerSimilar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+29
88.4%
Matt Ruffolo 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0094% → 99%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.0%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
94.1%
Garrett Shrader run for 4 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+49
94.5%
Garrett Shrader run for 49 yds to the Kent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
95.6%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Kent 19Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+18
95.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 18 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.6%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 12 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
97.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 5 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
97.7%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
97.7%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Allen Dailey Jr., broken up by Jaquarius LandrewsSimilar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 5
OWN 39
-5
97.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (Sawyer Smith) to the Kent 34Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+12
97.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 12 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., broken up by Brian Cole IISimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
97.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Allen Dailey Jr., broken up by C.J. MorganSimilar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
97.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., broken up by Jaquarius LandrewsSimilar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
98.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Bryce Oliver, broken up by Tyler WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:30
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)
-11
TD · Q2 4:45
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q4 1:39
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com