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CAL

California 28 at Ole Miss 20

MISS
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.9MISS 56.9%Luke Logan 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 13 · Q2 3:59
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:59 · Luke Logan 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−1.1Pregame prior+4.6Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:50: Matt Corral run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +2.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:43: Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +4.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:25: Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 9 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +15.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:03: Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 60 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +14.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:29: Jerrion Ealy run for 15 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +14.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 12CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 13:26MISS 4th & 7 at CAL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:50CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:52MISS 4th & 4 at CAL 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:43MISS 4th & 4 at CAL 48, down 4
    Close callPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:59MISS 4th & 8 at CAL 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−6.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:54CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 42, up 1
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:51MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:25MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:00MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 27, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:42CAL 4th & 5 at MISS 38, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−1.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:34MISS 4th & 17 at CAL 42, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 20, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:48MISS 4th & 6 at CAL 22, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−7.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:30MISS 4th & 12 at CAL 12, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−6.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:30CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 43, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:22MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 26, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:51CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 47, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−2.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:45MISS 4th & 1 at CAL 1, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−10.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−18.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:39CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:50MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:43CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:25CAL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:03CAL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:29MISS Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%−2.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:3458% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.3%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
58.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Scottie Phillips for 10 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+30
58.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 30 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
58.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
58.3%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
58.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete, broken up by Luc BequetteSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
58.5%
Luke Logan 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:4742% → 44%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
58.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 2 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+11
58.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 11 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
58.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 17 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
58.2%
Marcel Dancy run for 3 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+15
58.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 15 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
58.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
58.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+10
58.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 10 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
58.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
55.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 6 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4957% → 60%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
56.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
56.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
50
+3
57.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
57.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+9
57.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 9 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
57.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+21
57.3%
Matt Corral run for 21 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
57.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+7
57.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 7 yds to the Cal 2Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
57.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.7%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Chase Garbers run for no gain to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
58.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 15 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
57.7%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-8
57.5%
Chase Garbers sacked by Tariqious Tisdale for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
58.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
58.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:0259% → 60%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
58.6%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
59.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+10
59.0%
Matt Corral run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
50
0
59.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Octavious CooleySimilar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 10
50
+22
59.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 22 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
60.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 5 yds to the Cal 23 OLE MISS Penalty, illegal block (Demarcus Gregory) to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+6
59.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+9
60.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 9 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
60.0%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
60.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
60.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
60.2%
Luke Logan 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0940% → 47%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
60.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 11 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
59.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 4 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+9
58.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
50
+15
58.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Keidron Smith) to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
57.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
57.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-5
58.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+24
59.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 24 yds to the Miss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
57.8%
Marcel Dancy run for no gain to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
57.8%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
53.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
55.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 17 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
56.7%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+3
55.1%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 13
OWN 43
-5
54.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (Dontario Drummond) to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 18
OWN 38
+14
54.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 14 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
55.5%
Mac Brown punt for 41 yds, downed at the Cal 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0047% → 48%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
52.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
52.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Cal 10Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+15
53.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Keidron Smith) to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
52.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 11 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
51.7%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the Cal 37Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+21
51.8%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted Deantre Prince return for 21 yds to the Cal 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2556% → 57%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
56.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 7 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+10
56.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 10 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
56.2%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
56.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
55.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
56.9%
Luke Logan 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
53.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 15 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
52.7%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
51.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
51.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon Clark, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q2 3:54
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
54.0%
Steven Coutts punt for 32 yds, downed at the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:2555% → 53%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
55.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 1 yd to the Miss 27 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Evan Weaver) to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
57.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (Jonathan Mingo) to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 15
OWN 37
0
55.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 15
OWN 37
-6
55.2%
Matt Corral sacked by Kuony Deng for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 21
OWN 31
+7
52.7%
Scottie Phillips run for 7 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
53.1%
Mac Brown punt for 57 yds, downed at the Cal 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
53.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3547% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
52.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 10 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
52.4%
Chase Garbers run for no gain to the Cal 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+43
53.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 43 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
48.7%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-4
49.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 26
+15
51.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 15 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
48.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
33.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 9 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
38.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 7 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
38.9%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
37.3%
Mac Brown punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:0065% → 80%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
35.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 8 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
34.5%
Marcel Dancy run for 4 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
33.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+60
19.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 60 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
23.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 12 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
24.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan Mingo, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
23.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+1
23.3%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
23.3%
Mac Brown punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:0280% → 85%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
19.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko Remigio, broken up by Jalen JuliusSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
19.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 13 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
19.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 11 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
18.2%
Chase Garbers sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+14
18.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 14 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
18.1%
Chase Garbers sacked by Myles Hartsfield for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 48Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 19
OWN 48
-2
18.6%
Chase Garbers sacked by Austrian Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 21
OWN 46
+16
18.9%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 16 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
15.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 13 yds, downed at the Miss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:5818% → 18%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
17.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 40 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
20.6%
Matt Corral sacked by Kuony Deng and Brett Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 37Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
19.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 12
OPP 37
0
19.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jason PellerinSimilar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 12
OPP 37
-5
17.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (Elijah Moore) to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
17.8%
Mac Brown punt for 31 yds, downed at the Cal 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:2487% → 90%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
13.4%
Dancy, Marcel rush for 5 yards to the CAL16 (Jacquez Jones;Jon Haynes), PENALTY CAL holding (Vanis, Tommy) 5 yards to the CAL6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+7
13.5%
Marcel Dancy run for 7 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+7
13.6%
Chase Garbers run for 7 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
13.8%
Chase Garbers run for no gain to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+11
10.0%
Dario Longhetto punt for 51 yds , Elijah Moore returns for 11 yds to the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 5:1817% → 8%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
16.7%
Matt Corral run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
50
+7
17.3%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+6
18.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 6 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
17.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 8 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 2
OPP 29
-4
18.9%
Matt Corral sacked by Evan Weaver and Nick Alftin for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+7
17.9%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
18.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
18.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete, broken up by Elijah HicksSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
18.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+20
17.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 20 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
18.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Cal 1Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-11
18.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Cal 12Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
17.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah Moore, broken up by Luc BequetteSimilar
Q4 9:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
8.2%
Luke Logan 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
5.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 5 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
5.6%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-5
6.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, delay of game (Chase Garbers) to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+20
6.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 20 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
5.2%
Marcel Dancy run for 1 yd to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
5.3%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
5.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
5.8%
Dario Longhetto punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 1:535% → 20%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
5.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Tylan Knight for 8 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+6
5.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 6 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
5.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jerrion EalySimilar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
5.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Tylan Knight, broken up by Trey Turner IIISimilar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
5.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah Moore, broken up by Ashtyn DavisSimilar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+12
5.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 12 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
5.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Tylan Knight, broken up by Trey Turner IIISimilar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
5.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Tylan Knight, broken up by Trey Turner IIISimilar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+47
5.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 47 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
20.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 15 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:3890% → 93%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
9.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 13 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
8.8%
Chase Garbers run for 8 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
8.4%
Marcel Dancy run for 1 yd to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
6.2%
Marcel Dancy run for no gain to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
6.7%
Dario Longhetto punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 89 yds · 0:007% → 9%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
6.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 3 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+13
6.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 13 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
7.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 11 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
7.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
8.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 9 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+41
8.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 41 yds to the Cal 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
11.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Cal 9Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
11.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
9.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
8.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Cal 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:25
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 9 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q4 4:29
Jerrion Ealy run for 15 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
+14.9
TD · Q3 9:03
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 60 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com