Try the model
SJSU

San José State 31 at Arkansas 24

ARK
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Razorback Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.3ARK 35.0%Connor Limpert 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 10 · Q3 5:01
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:01 · Connor Limpert 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Pregame prior+17.2Home team on offense−18.3Score differential−9.7Garbage-time factor−6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 6:09: Matt Mercurio 47 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:06: Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 26 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +24.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:10: Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyson Morris for 30 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +21.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:56: Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 8 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +31.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:13: DeJon Packer run for 19 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +39.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:44ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:55ARK 4th & 3 at SJSU 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:25SJSU 4th & 5 at ARK 28, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:18ARK 4th & 1 at SJSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−0.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:09SJSU 4th & 7 at ARK 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:09ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:50SJSU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.8%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:26SJSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 11, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−5.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:01ARK 4th & 4 at SJSU 29, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.1%−0.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−8.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:01SJSU 4th & 30 at ARK 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.7%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:10SJSU 4th & 5 at ARK 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    63.2%−2.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:31ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 27, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:34SJSU 4th & 8 at ARK 34, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    73.9%−0.2
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:44SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:07ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:18SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:06SJSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:10ARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:56ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−2.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:13SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:169% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
91.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 50 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
91.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 9 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+2
91.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 2 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
91.4%
Nick Nash run for 8 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
0
91.4%
DeJon Packer run for no gain to the Ark 6Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
91.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 3 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.4%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
90.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
90.6%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
90.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for no gain to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
90.5%
Sam Loy punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
90.0%
DeJon Packer run for 3 yds to the SJSt 18Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
90.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete, broken up by Joe FouchaSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+4
90.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 4 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
90.0%
Alex Galland punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:1990% → 88%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
89.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 13 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
89.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyson Morris for 15 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
89.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Trey Knox, broken up by Nehemiah SheltonSimilar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+10
89.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 10 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
89.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
89.7%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+15
89.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to C. O'Grady, PENALTY SJSU pass interference (Nehemi Shelton) 15 yards to the SJSU11, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
89.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the SJSt 10Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
89.7%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Devwah Whaley, broken up by Viliami FehokoSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+6
89.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 6 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 3
OPP 4
-2
88.1%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5MISSED FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:2412% → 15%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
87.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 12 yds to the SJSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+32
87.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
50
+2
87.4%
Isaiah Holiness run for 2 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
87.4%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+15
86.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 15 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
86.3%
Sitaleki Nunn pass complete to Brett Foley for 16 yards to the AR17 (Myles Mason), PENALTY SJSU illegal formation 5 yards to the AR38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 15
OPP 38
-5
86.4%
Dejon Packer rush for 8 yards to the AR30 (Collin Clay;Joe Foucha), PENALTY SJSU illegal formation 5 yards to the AR43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 20
OPP 43
0
86.4%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+3
86.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 3 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+12
86.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 12 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+46
84.8%
Matt Mercurio 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:1886% → 88%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
85.5%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+17
85.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 17 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
85.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-10
85.9%
Rakeem Boyd rush for 13 yards to the SJSU39, out-of-bounds, PENALTY AR holding (C. O'Grady) 10 yards to the AR38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+62
87.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Mike Woods for 62 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
87.0%
Josh Love pass intercepted Kamren Curl return for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:3287% → 88%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
87.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
87.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Mike Woods for 6 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+32
87.7%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted Ethan Aguayo return for 32 yds to the Ark 28 Ethan Aguayo fumbled, forced by Rakeem Boyd,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:2715% → 18%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
85.3%
Isaiah Hamilton run for 13 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
81.7%
Nick Nash run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10DOWNS
15 plays · 56 yds · 0:0083% → 84%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
83.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
83.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Mike Woods for 7 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
83.6%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+2
83.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 2 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+9
83.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 9 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
84.0%
Nick Starkel run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 2
50
0
84.3%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 2
50
+3
84.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
84.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'Grady, broken up by Jesse OsunaSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
84.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 15 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
84.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 8 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
84.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete, broken up by Nehemiah SheltonSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
84.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
84.1%
Nick Starkel run for no gain to the SJSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:1222% → 27%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
78.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 14 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
77.3%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Nick Nash, broken up by Hayden HenrySimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
77.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 15 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
76.3%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker, PENALTY AR pass interference (Myles Mason) 15 yards to the AR33, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
76.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
76.2%
DeJon Packer run for no gain to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
76.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Isaiah Hamilton, broken up by Jarques McClellionSimilar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
72.7%
Matt Mercurio 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
73.8%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
73.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
73.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete, broken up by Viliami FehokoSimilar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
72.6%
Sam Loy punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Brandon Ezell at the SJSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:4828% → 55%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
71.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+11
71.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 11 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
70.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
71.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by Kamren CurlSimilar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+20
71.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 20 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
70.0%
DeJon Packer run for 1 yd to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+14
70.1%
DeJon Packer run for 14 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
69.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+26
45.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 26 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14INT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:4556% → 56%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyson Morris for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
57.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Rakeem BoydSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
56.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 7 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
56.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 7 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+11
57.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 11 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+32
56.0%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted Bobby Brown II return for 32 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0654% → 55%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
50
+6
46.5%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 6 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-2
44.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16INT
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:0051% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
51.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyson Morris for 10 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
53.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 6 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+22
53.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 7 yds to the ARKANSAS 48 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Jesse Osuna) to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
55.0%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Devwah WhaleySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
54.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
54.0%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted Jay Lenard return for no gain to the SJSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:5356% → 61%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
44.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 12 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
44.3%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 16 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
42.6%
Josh Love pass incomplete, broken up by De'Jon HarrisSimilar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
43.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
43.4%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 36Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+14
44.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 1
50
0
39.1%
Josh Love pass incomplete, broken up by Gabe RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18INT
8 plays · 42 yds · 1:3845% → 40%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
50
-4
44.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
43.0%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Trey Knox, broken up by Zamore ZiglerSimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+19
42.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 19 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
45.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 22 yds to the SJSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
46.0%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
40.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+13
40.1%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted Nehemiah Shelton return for 13 yds to the SJSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-4
34.2%
Nick Nash run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 10 Nick Nash fumbled, forced by Jamario Bell, recovered by SJSt Nick NashSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 14
OWN 10
+1
34.4%
DeJon Packer run for 1 yd to the SJSt 11Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 13
OWN 11
0
35.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 13
OWN 11
0
35.4%
Alex Galland punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0035% → 35%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
35.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 8 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+12
36.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 12 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
36.4%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-4
36.2%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 39Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+10
33.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 10 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+48
35.0%
Connor Limpert 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
29.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 17 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
27.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 23 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
26.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 15 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
26.4%
Nick Nash rush for 5 yards to the AR15 (De'Jon Harris), PENALTY SJSU holding (Derrick Deese) 10 yards to the AR30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 20
OPP 30
-1
26.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 21
OPP 31
-9
27.3%
Josh Love sacked by Jamario Bell for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 30
OPP 40
0
28.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 30
OPP 40
0
29.7%
Alex Galland punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:0925% → 47%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
25.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 7 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
26.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
26.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+16
23.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 16 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
25.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 9 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+4
26.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
26.6%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
26.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 12 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
47.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyson Morris for 30 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0065% → 67%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Brett Foley for 3 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
34.3%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
34.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 12 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
31.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Jesse Osuna (J. McClellion), PENALTY AR pass interference (J. McClellion) 7 yards to the SJSU49, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
31.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Andre Crump Jr for 5 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
30.6%
Josh Love pass incomplete to JaQuan Blackwell, broken up by Bumper PoolSimilar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
31.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Brett Foley, broken up by De'Jon HarrisSimilar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
33.5%
Alex Galland punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
35.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 5 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
36.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
35.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
33.0%
Sam Loy punt for 29 yds, downed at the SJSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:3577% → 77%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
22.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-10
23.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker, PENALTY SJSU holding (Quinn Oseland) 10 yards to the SJSU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+13
26.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 13 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+15
21.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker, PENALTY AR pass interference (L. Bishop) 15 yards to the AR36, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
19.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 2 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
19.3%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
20.3%
Josh Love pass incomplete to DeJon PackerSimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
23.4%
Alex Galland punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5524% → 64%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
24.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 18 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
26.5%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Andre Crump Jr) to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
29.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 17 yards to the SJSU30, out-of-bounds (Nehemi Shelton), PENALTY AR ineligible downfield on pass (Ty Clary) 5 yards to the AR48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+3
26.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-1
27.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 13
50
+40
24.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Mike Woods for 40 yds to the SJSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
33.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
33.0%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q4 2:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
64.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 8 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4349% → 95%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
50.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 20Similar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
51.2%
Nick Nash run for 7 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
50.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 12 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
47.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 18 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
43.9%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 24 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
4.6%
DeJon Packer run for 19 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 28INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
14.1%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted Bobby Brown II return for no gain to the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
5.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-2
6.0%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:13
DeJon Packer run for 19 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
-39.3
TD · Q4 2:56
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 8 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)
+31.4
TD · Q2 1:06
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 26 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
-24.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com