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USM

Southern Miss 7 at Alabama 49

ALA
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · Darius Maberry run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:04: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 74 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:17: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:55: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 17 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:02: Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +1.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:12: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 20 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:21USM 4th & 10 at USM 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37USM 4th & 2 at ALA 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:03USM 4th & 22 at ALA 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:46USM 4th & 9 at USM 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:27USM 4th & 18 at USM 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:08ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 39, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:01ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:33USM 4th & 4 at USM 46, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:30USM 4th & 14 at USM 45, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:00ALA 4th & 5 at USM 38, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:08ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:04ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:17ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:55ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:02USM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:12ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:43ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:37ALA Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
98.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to De'Michael HarrisSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-2
98.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Zac Everett punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 1:0799% → 99%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
98.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 12 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
98.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+45
98.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 45 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 4:572% → 2%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
98.5%
Jack Abraham run for 11 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
98.4%
De'Michael Harris run for 21 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
98.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
98.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+7
98.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 7 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+3
98.2%
De'Michael Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
98.1%
Jaylond Adams run for 2 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
98.0%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-14
98.1%
Jack Abraham sacked by Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 14 yards to the Alab 48 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jack Abraham) to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 22
OPP 48
0
98.1%
Zac Everett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
3 plays · 91 yds · 0:5698% → 98%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
98.1%
Najee Harris run for 11 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.1%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+74
98.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 74 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:432% → 2%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
98.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 3 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+9
98.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 9 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
98.1%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
98.1%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-5
98.2%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Trevon Diggs return for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 4:5098% → 99%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
98.2%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 8Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+4
98.2%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+15
98.1%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass incomplete to Waddle, Jaylen, PENALTY SOUMISS pass interference (Gunn, Ernest) 15 yards to the ALABAMA27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
98.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 3 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
98.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+15
98.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 15 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry Jeudy, broken up by Rachuan MitchellSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
98.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
98.1%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
98.1%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+25
98.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 25 yds to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
98.6%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+4
98.7%
Jaylond Adams run for 4 yds to the SoMis 26 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (Tim Jones) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
98.7%
Matt Bromell punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:4599% → 99%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
98.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 17 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
98.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+18
98.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 18 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 17 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 4:081% → 0%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.3%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
99.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 17 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.3%
Steven Anderson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+7
99.3%
Steven Anderson run for 7 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.3%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
99.5%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-8
99.5%
Jack Abraham sacked by Shane Lee for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
99.6%
Zac Everett punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.5%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
99.4%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.5%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+1
99.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Miller Forristall for 1 yd to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry Jeudy, broken up by Ky'el HembySimilar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+1
99.5%
Skyler DeLong punt for 36 yds , Jaylond Adams returns for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:580% → 2%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.7%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+3
99.6%
De'Michael Harris run for 3 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+52
99.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 37 yds to the ALABAMA 32 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Xavier McKinney) to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
99.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Kevin Perkins for 14 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.5%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 4Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.9%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 8 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-6
99.0%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Swayze Bozeman for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 27Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
98.9%
Skyler DeLong punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaylond Adams at the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:3899% → 100%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
98.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to John Metchie for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+36
98.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 36 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
98.9%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
98.9%
Najee Harris run for 13 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 20 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15FUMBLE
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:190% → 0%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.7%
Jack Abraham run for no gain to the SoMis 17Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+12
99.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 12 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Anfernee JenningsSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+25
99.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 25 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.7%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+9
99.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Steven Anderson for 9 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.7%
De'Michael Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
99.7%
De'Michael Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 32 De'Michael Harris fumbled, forced by Phidarian Mathis, recovered by Alab Jordan Battle , return for 4 yds to the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+3
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 3 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+14
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 14 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+6
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 6 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+17
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 17 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
99.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 15 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 3 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+28
99.9%
Zac Everett punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALABAMA 11 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Alab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:55100% → 100%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+17
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 17 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
99.9%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 39 Najee Harris fumbled, recovered by Alab Najee Harris for a 1ST down Najee Harris run for 20 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+8
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+6
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-2
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 14
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Mac Jones pass intercepted D.Q. Thomas return for no gain to the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 19 yds · 5:550% → 0%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 7 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
99.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 4 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+8
99.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Kevin Perkins for 8 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
99.9%
Quez Watkins run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 9
50
+7
100.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 7 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-2
99.9%
Darius Maberry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 4
OPP 45
-5
100.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 9
50
-5
100.0%
Bromell, Matt punt 32 yards to the ALABAMA18, Waddle, Jaylen return 0 yards to the ALABAMA18, PENALTY SOUMISS substitution infraction 5 yards to the SOUMISS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 14
OWN 45
+41
100.0%
Matt Bromell punt for 39 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 41 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 5:28100% → 100%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
100.0%
Jerome Ford run for 7 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+1
100.0%
Chadarius Townsend run for 1 yd to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-3
100.0%
Chadarius Townsend run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+20
100.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Slade Bolden for 20 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
100.0%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+7
100.0%
Jerome Ford run for 7 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
100.0%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
100.0%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Jerome Ford run for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Darius Maberry run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
100.0%
Darius Maberry run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+1
100.0%
Darius Maberry run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:02
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)
-1.2
TD · Q3 13:12
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 20 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 14:17
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com