2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadSEMO aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreSEMO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:33 · Tucker McCann 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:05: Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — SEMO win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q1 8:41: Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 3 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:32: Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:05: Tucker McCann 44 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 8SEMO made the numbers' call on 14 of 14
- Q1 11:07SEMO 4th & 10 at SEMO 25, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q1 6:41SEMO 4th & 17 at SEMO 33, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q1 6:39SEMO 4th & 5 at SEMO 30, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 4:57MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 19, up 27Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snapGo for it98.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00SEMO 4th & 10 at MIZ 45, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.130% to convertField goal1.2%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 12:55MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 18, up 27Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 9:43SEMO 4th & 10 at SEMO 34, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q2 7:05SEMO 4th & 12 at SEMO 34, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q2 1:17SEMO 4th & 3 at SEMO 32, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 0:05MIZ 4th & 7 at SEMO 27, up 34Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call99.5%62% to makePunt99.1%−0.4average punt
- Q3 15:00SEMO 4th & 10 at SEMO 25, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 9:33MIZ 4th & 15 at SEMO 25, up 37Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.116% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%66% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 9:33SEMO 4th & 8 at SEMO 27, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 4:42SEMO 4th & 9 at SEMO 49, down 47Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00MIZ 4th & 13 at MIZ 20, up 47Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 14:44SEMO 4th & 16 at SEMO 29, down 47Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 12:32MIZ 4th & 9 at SEMO 35, up 47Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%32% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.145% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:32SEMO 4th & 12 at SEMO 23, down 50Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 10:59MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 38, up 50Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:48SEMO 4th & 13 at SEMO 19, down 50Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 5:41MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 39, up 50Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 3:33SEMO 4th & 8 at SEMO 16, down 50Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:05MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:07MIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:41MIZ Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:32MIZ Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:42MIZ Touchdown, up 46 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIZDrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5598% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 8 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
98.3%
Bryant, Kelly pass complete to Johnson, J. for 36 yards to the SEMO1, out-of-bounds, PENALTY MU illegal formation 5 yards to the SEMO42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
98.3%
Bryant, Kelly pass complete to Okwuegbunam, A. for 7 yards to the SEMO17, PENALTY MU ineligible downfield on pass (Lawrence, Bobby) 5 yards to the SEMO29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 2INT TD4 plays · -6 yds · 0:582% → 2%
SEMODrive 3PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
MIZDrive 4TD3 plays · 60 yds · 1:0998% → 98%
SEMODrive 5PUNT RETURN TD7 plays · 8 yds · 2:002% → 1%
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.2%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Aaron Alston for 15 yds to the SEMo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-7
98.2%
Daniel Santacaterina sacked by Chris Turner for a loss of 7 yards to the SEMo 33 SE MISSOURI Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 17
OWN 33
+71
98.7%
Jake Reynolds punt for 38 yds , Richaud Floyd returns for 71 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 6PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 6:39
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
98.7%
Jake Reynolds punt for 50 yds , Richaud Floyd returns for no gain to the Misso 30 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding (Christian Holmes) to the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
SEMODrive 8PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 2:501% → 1%
Q1 2:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
98.8%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Kristian Wilkerson for 15 yds to the SEMo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
98.8%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Colby Cornett for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 2
50
+5
98.8%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Caleb Strauss for 5 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+1
99.0%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Mark Robinson for 1 yd to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
99.0%
Jake Reynolds punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+4
99.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 4 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 2
OWN 19
-1
98.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 18Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 3
OWN 18
+13
98.9%
Tucker McCann punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SEMo 34 , Zack Smith returns for 13 yds to the SEMo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 10PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:301% → 1%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.1%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Zack Smith for no gain to the SEMo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11INT6 plays · 54 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
99.2%
Bryant, Kelly pass complete to Nance, Jonathan for 13 yards to the MU44 (SWIFT, Justin), PENALTY MU illegal motion (Badie, Tyler) 5 yards to the MU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
99.3%
Kelly Bryant pass intercepted Al Young return for 12 yds to the SEMo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 12PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 7:05
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+15
99.3%
REYNOLDS, Jake punt 41 yards to the MU48, downed, PENALTY MU roughing the kicker (Jones, Jerney) 15 yards to the SEMO26, 1ST DOWN SEMO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.3%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incomplete to Kristian Wilkerson, broken up by Nick BoltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13TD5 plays · 64 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
SEMODrive 14PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 0:150% → 0%
Q2 1:17
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.7%
Jake Reynolds punt for 42 yds , Richaud Floyd returns for 2 yds to the Misso 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15FG10 plays · 45 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tyler Badie for 17 yds to the Misso 45 MISSOURI Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+18
99.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 18 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
99.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 22 yds to the SEMo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 3 yds to the SEMo 27Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
99.6%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Barrett Banister, broken up by Marcus LucasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 17PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18FG10 plays · 33 yds · 4:26100% → 100%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
99.7%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Omardrick Douglas for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 40Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+21
99.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 21 yds to the SEMo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+15
99.7%
Bryant, Kelly pass incomplete to Gicinto, D., PENALTY SEMO pass interference (JENKINS, Taj) 15 yards to the SEMO20, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
99.8%
Rountree, Larry rush for 6 yards to the SEMO14, clock 11:33, PENALTY MU holding (Nance, Jonathan) 4 yards to the SEMO24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 14
OPP 24
-13
99.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the SEMo 22 MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SEMo 37Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 27
OPP 37
0
99.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Larry Rountree III for no gain to the SEMo 37Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 27
OPP 37
+12
99.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 12 yds to the SEMo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 19PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 21 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+5
99.8%
SE MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive offside (Josh Avery) to the SEMo 46Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+5
99.8%
Rountree, Larry rush for 2 yards to the SEMO44 (SWIFT, Justin), PENALTY SEMO 12 men on the field 5 yards to the SEMO41, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 21PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:42
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
99.9%
Joe Pyle pass complete to Jordan Foster for 12 yds to the SEMo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+8
99.9%
Tucker McCann punt for 53 yds , Zack Smith returns for 8 yds to the SEMo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 23PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIZDrive 24FG5 plays · 18 yds · 1:11100% → 100%
SEMODrive 25PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIZDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:59
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Tucker McCann punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Zack Smith at the SEMo 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 27PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 28PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 29PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:33
3RD & 6
OWN 18
-2
100.0%
Jacob Buie pass complete to Aaron Alston for a loss of 2 yards to the SEMo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 30END OF GAME3 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 12:05
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
-0.2
TD · Q1 8:41
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 3 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 1:32
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+0.1