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SELA

SE Louisiana 29 at Ole Miss 40

MISS
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadSELA aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreSELA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · Chason Virgil pass incomplete, broken up by Keidron Smith
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:29: Devonte Williams run for 20 yds for a TD, (Bryce Broussard KICK) — SELA win probability +3.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:27: Scottie Phillips run for 27 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +3.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:11: Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 45 yds for a TD, (Bryce Broussard PAT MISSED) — SELA win probability +4.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:26: Chason Virgil pass complete to Bransen Schwebel for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SELA win probability +12.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 10:38: Luke Logan 22 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +5.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SELA made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 6:47SELA 4th & 4 at MISS 12, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:33SELA 4th & 2 at SELA 33, down 10
    Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:20MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:13SELA 4th & 7 at SELA 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:06MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:02MISS 4th & 11 at SELA 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:02SELA 4th & 8 at MISS 30, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:25MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:36MISS 4th & 1 at SELA 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−0.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:55SELA 4th & 12 at SELA 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:04MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:22SELA 4th & 4 at SELA 30, down 11
    Close callPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:38MISS 4th & 5 at SELA 5, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−10.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:38SELA 4th & 3 at MISS 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−1.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−3.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:26SELA 4th & 11 at MISS 28, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−5.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:39MISS 4th & 5 at SELA 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SELA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:01MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:33MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:12SELA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:28MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:29SELA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:54MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:27MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:11SELA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:26SELA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 3:5998% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
97.5%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
97.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Tylan Knight for 11 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
97.5%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-1
97.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+16
97.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 16 yds to the SELa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
97.5%
Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds to the SELa 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+4
97.5%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the SELa 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
97.5%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the SELa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
97.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 6 yds to the SELa 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+13
97.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 13 yds to the SELa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
97.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the SELa 9Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 9 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 2INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.1%
Devonte Williams run for 7 yds to the SELa 32Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
97.0%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Myles Hartsfield return for 1 yd to the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
97.1%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+13
97.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 13 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
97.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-3
97.1%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 41 Scottie Phillips fumbled, recovered by SELa Isaac Adeyemi-BerglundSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 4FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:293% → 4%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
96.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Devonte Williams for 12 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
96.8%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
96.8%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+11
96.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Austin Mitchell for 11 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
96.8%
Devonte Williams run for 2 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
96.8%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+4
96.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Marcus Cooper for 4 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
96.3%
Bryce Broussard 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.6%
Devonte Williams run for 9 yds to the SELa 34Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
96.5%
Devonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SELa 33Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
96.6%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+41
96.6%
Austin Dunlap punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the OLEMISS 21 SE LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
96.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Miles Battle for 14 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Miles Battle, broken up by Isaac Adeyemi-BerglundSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-5
96.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
96.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete, broken up by Ferlando JordanSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 15
OWN 35
+48
96.5%
Mac Brown punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Austin Mitchell at the OLEMISS 27 SE LOUISIANA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SELa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
96.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Austin MitchellSimilar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
96.3%
Marcus Cooper run for 3 yds to the SELa 20Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
96.3%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 7
OWN 20
-15
96.4%
Austin Dunlap punt for 50 yds , Elijah Moore returns for a loss of 15 yards to the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
96.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 16 yards to the OM31 (Spann, Tre'), PENALTY OM ineligible downfield on pass (Eli Johnson) 5 yards to the OM10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 15
OWN 10
-5
96.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 24 yards to the OM34 (Lynch, Dejion;Ramos, Alexis), PENALTY OM ineligible downfield on pass (Royce Newman) 5 yards to the OM5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 20
OWN 5
+5
96.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+6
96.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Scottie Phillips for 6 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+23
96.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 23 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
96.4%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
96.4%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
96.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+25
96.2%
Mac Brown punt for 40 yds , Devonte Williams returns for 25 yds to the SELa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 10TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 2:054% → 6%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
95.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Bransen Schwebel for 5 yds to the SELa 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
95.6%
Devonte Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
50
+18
95.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Devonte Williams for 18 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
95.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 18 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
93.8%
Marcus Cooper run for 14 yds for a TD, (Bryce Broussard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:3994% → 96%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+52
94.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 52 yds to the SELa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
95.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 30 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13MISSED FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1896% → 95%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
95.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the SELa 24Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-2
95.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the SELa 26Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
95.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah Moore, broken up by Donniel Ward-MageeSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
95.1%
Luke Logan 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 14TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:335% → 9%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
95.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Austin Mitchell for 11 yds to the SELa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
95.1%
Marcus Cooper run for 5 yds to the SELa 42Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+9
94.9%
Devonte Williams run for 9 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
94.9%
Devonte Williams run for 3 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+14
94.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Austin Mitchell for 14 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to CJ Turner, broken up by Lakia HenrySimilar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
94.7%
Marcus Cooper run for 3 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-1
94.9%
Devonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+10
95.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Bransen Schwebel for 10 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
91.2%
Devonte Williams run for 20 yds for a TD, (Bryce Broussard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
92.4%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
92.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah Moore, broken up by Donniel Ward-MageeSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
92.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete, broken up by Zeke JenkinsSimilar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 11
OWN 18
+8
91.8%
Mac Brown punt for 57 yds , Devonte Williams returns for 8 yds to the SELa 26 SE LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SELa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 16INT
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+35
92.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to CJ Turner for 35 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
91.2%
Javon Conner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+13
91.4%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Jon Haynes return for 13 yds to the Miss 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:3592% → 95%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
92.4%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the SELa 48Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
92.5%
Scottie Phillips run for 8 yds to the SELa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
92.5%
Scottie Phillips run for 24 yds to the SELa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
92.7%
Scottie Phillips run for 7 yds to the SELa 9Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+1
92.7%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the SELa 8Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+1
91.4%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the SELa 7Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+2
91.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the SELa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.2%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the SELa 5Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 5 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:486% → 7%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
94.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Devonte Williams for 6 yds to the SELa 41Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
93.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Devonte Williams for 5 yds to the SELa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
94.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to CJ Turner for 5 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+12
93.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Javon Conner for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
93.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Marcus Cooper for 1 yd to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+39
93.1%
Nathan Holliday 53 yd FG MISSED , Jaylon Jones return for 39 yds to the Miss 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
93.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Bransen Schwebel for 1 yd to the SELa 25Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 25
-3
93.4%
Devonte Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the SELa 22Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
93.8%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Juwan Petit-FrereSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
93.9%
Austin Dunlap punt for 47 yds , Elijah Moore returns for no gain to the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:0094% → 97%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
93.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 7 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
94.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
94.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Scottie Phillips for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+13
93.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 13 yds to the SELa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
94.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 8 yds to the SELa 39Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+2
94.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the SELa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
94.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 3 yds to the SELa 34Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+7
94.1%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the SELa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
97.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 27 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 21TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:104% → 8%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
96.4%
Devonte Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the SELa 20Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 12
OWN 20
-2
96.5%
Chason Virgil sacked by Charles Wiley for a loss of 2 yards to the SELa 18Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+15
96.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Austin Mitchell for 15 yds to the SELa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
96.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Devonte Williams for 10 yds to the SELa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
96.1%
Marcus Cooper run for 2 yds to the SELa 45Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-1
96.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to CJ Turner for a loss of 1 yard CJ Turner fumbled, forced by Jacquez Jones, recovered by SELa CJ TurnerSimilar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+11
96.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 11 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Austin Mitchell, broken up by Jalen JuliusSimilar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
91.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 45 yds for a TD, (Bryce Broussard PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
93.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 14
OWN 23
-11
93.1%
Matt Corral sacked by Isaac Adeyemi-Berglund for a loss of 11 yards to the Miss 3 Matt Corral fumbled, recovered by Miss Jason Pellerin , return for 0 yards , return for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 3Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 34
OWN 3
+24
92.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 24 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
92.5%
Mac Brown punt for 49 yds , Austin Mitchell returns for no gain to the SELa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
92.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Devonte Williams for 9 yds to the SELa 33Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
92.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Devonte WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 1
OWN 33
-15
92.6%
Virgil, Chason pass complete to Mitchell, Austin for 7 yards to the SLU40, out-of-bounds (Jalen Julius), PENALTY SLU pass interference (Turner, CJ) 15 yards to the SLU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 16
OWN 18
+12
93.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Austin Mitchell for 12 yds to the SELa 30Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
93.4%
Austin Dunlap punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · -16 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.4%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
93.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario Drummond, broken up by Shawntrez SpatesSimilar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-13
93.0%
Matt Corral sacked by Isaac Adeyemi-Berglund for a loss of 13 yards to the Miss 9 Matt Corral fumbled, recovered by SELa Feletoa Ailua , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 25TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:429% → 21%
Q3 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
90.8%
Devonte Williams run for 4 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Bransen Schwebel for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26FG
15 plays · 78 yds · 5:4385% → 92%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
85.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 16 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
85.4%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-1
85.3%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+11
83.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 11 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
85.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-3
86.1%
Matt Corral sacked by Joshua Carr Jr. and Alexis Ramos for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+18
84.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 18 yds to the SELa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
86.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the SELa 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+3
86.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the SELa 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+27
86.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 19 yds to the SELa 15 for a 1ST down SE LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Donniel Ward-Magee) to the SELa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
87.1%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the SELa 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
87.1%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the SELa 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.3%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the SELa 5Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
92.1%
Luke Logan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 27INT
14 plays · 37 yds · 5:1210% → 10%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
89.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Bransen Schwebel for 11 yds to the SELa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
88.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Damien Dawson for 7 yds Damien Dawson fumbled, forced by Willie Hibbler, recovered by SELa Matt DeBlaisoSimilar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
87.8%
Devonte Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 45Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
88.0%
Cole Kelley run for 4 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
88.2%
Cole Kelley run for 2 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
88.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Austin MitchellSimilar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+5
88.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Devonte Williams for 5 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+7
89.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Javon Conner for 7 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
86.8%
Chason Virgil sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 32 Chason Virgil fumbled, recovered by SELa Chason Virgil , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+4
88.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Austin Mitchell for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
88.9%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+1
90.1%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Donta Evans return for 1 yd to the Miss 16 Donta Evans fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:3994% → 98%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
94.0%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
93.8%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+20
93.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 20 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
94.9%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
94.8%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+37
95.9%
Snoop Conner run for 37 yds to the SELa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
96.3%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the SELa 17Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
97.6%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the SELa 17Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+2
97.5%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the SELa 15Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
98.0%
Luke Logan 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
96.2%
SE LOUISIANA Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 15
OPP 34
-8
96.6%
Chason Virgil sacked by Ryder Anderson for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 23
OPP 42
0
97.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete, broken up by Keidron SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:26
Chason Virgil pass complete to Bransen Schwebel for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-12
FG · Q4 10:38
Luke Logan 22 yd FG GOOD
+5.8
TD · Q3 6:11
Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 45 yds for a TD, (Bryce Broussard PAT MISSED)
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com