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NWST

Northwestern State 14 at LSU 65

LSU
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadNWST aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreNWST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:35 · Parker Pastorello punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Pregame prior+12.5Home team on offense+36.8Score differential+30.8Blowout margin+19.1Garbage-time factor+9.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:38: Shelton Eppler pass complete to David Fitzwater for 26 yds for a TD, (Scotty Roblow KICK) — NWST win probability +0.8 pts (now 2%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 53%).
  2. TD · Q2 3:27: Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:19: Joe Burrow run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cade York PAT MISSED) — LSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:36: Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:26: John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NWST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 9:49NWST 4th & 7 at LSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:30LSU 4th & 4 at NWST 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:34NWST 4th & 7 at NWST 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:06NWST 4th & 2 at NWST 48, down 10
    Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:35NWST 4th & 10 at LSU 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:04NWST 4th & 5 at NWST 21, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:58NWST 4th & 6 at NWST 29, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:50NWST 4th & 4 at NWST 31, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:04NWST 4th & 7 at LSU 20, down 37
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:55LSU 4th & 8 at midfield, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:22NWST 4th & 8 at NWST 16, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:35NWST 4th & 10 at NWST 25, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NWST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:16NWST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:38LSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:50LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:38NWST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:27LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:19LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:36LSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:26LSU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:16LSU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:12LSU Touchdown, up 50 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NWSTDrive 1DOWNS
12 plays · 40 yds · 5:060% → 0%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Jared West run for 4 yds to the NWSt 29Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.8%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Levar Gumms for 8 yds to the NWSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Quan ShortsSimilar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.7%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Gavin Landry for 4 yds to the NWSt 41Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+10
99.7%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 10 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.7%
Jared West run for 5 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
99.7%
Jared West run for 6 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.7%
Jared West run for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+2
99.7%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 2 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
99.6%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Quan ShortsSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
99.6%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Quan ShortsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:10100% → 100%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 8 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+2
99.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.6%
Joe Burrow run for 4 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+2
99.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the NWSt 49Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+9
99.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 9 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
99.5%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NWSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
99.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 11 yds to the NWSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
99.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 15Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+6
99.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 6 yds to the NWSt 9Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+1
99.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the NWSt 8Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
99.5%
Cade York 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:091% → 1%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Jared West run for 2 yds to the NWSt 27Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-14
99.4%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-14 Yards) to the NWSt 13Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+12
99.4%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Jared West for 12 yds to the NWSt 25Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+28
99.4%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Akile Davis for 28 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
99.3%
Jared West run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+4
99.3%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Akile Davis for 4 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+11
99.2%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 11 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.2%
Stadford Anderson run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+15
99.1%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
98.9%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 17 yds for a TD, (Scotty Roblow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:2399% → 99%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
99.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 21 yds to the NWSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the NWSt 45Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+15
99.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 15 yds to the NWSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
99.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 13 yds to the NWSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
98.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 8 yds to the NWSt 9Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+5
98.9%
Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the NWSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.0%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Myles Ward for 3 yds to the NWSt 28Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Akile DavisSimilar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Shelton Eppler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.0%
Parker Pastorello punt for 45 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 6 yds to the LSU 34 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:3499% → 99%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
98.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 21 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
98.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 26 yds to the NWSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
98.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 9 yds to the NWSt 21Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+9
98.8%
Lanard Fournette run for 9 yds to the NWSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
98.8%
Lanard Fournette run for 4 yds to the NWSt 8Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-6
98.8%
Lanard Fournette run for a loss of 6 yards to the NWSt 14Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+14
99.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:041% → 2%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.0%
LSU Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Breiden Fehoko) to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.9%
Shelton Eppler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
98.9%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Tanner Ash for 6 yds to the NWSt 46Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
98.8%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Gavin Landry for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
50
+17
98.7%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Corey Smallwood for 17 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
98.6%
Stadford Anderson run for 7 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+26
97.8%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to David Fitzwater for 26 yds for a TD, (Scotty Roblow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:5398% → 99%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+28
98.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 28 yds to the NWSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
98.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 19 yds to the NWSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
98.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 7 yds to the NWSt 16Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+13
98.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 13 yds to the NWSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the NWSt 3Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:141% → 2%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.6%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to David Fitzwater for 15 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.5%
Stadford Anderson run for 3 yds to the NWSt 43Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
98.4%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 5 yds to the NWSt 48Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
98.2%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to David FitzwaterSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
98.3%
Parker Pastorello punt for 37 yds, downed at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
98.3%
Joe Burrow pass intercepted Dylan Wilson return for 8 yds to the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 11MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:172% → 2%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
97.9%
Shelton Eppler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
97.9%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Levar GummsSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
98.0%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Quan ShortsSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
98.2%
Scotty Roblow 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2798% → 98%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
98.3%
Joe Burrow run for 9 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+16
98.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 16 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
98.3%
Joe Burrow sacked by O'Shea Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 39
-16
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 39 LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:1798% → 99%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+48
98.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 48 yds to the NWSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
98.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 13 yds to the NWSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
98.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 8 yds to the NWSt 5Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
98.7%
Joe Burrow run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cade York PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:002% → 2%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
98.5%
Shelton Eppler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
98.5%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Akile Davis for 5 yds to the NWSt 21Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
98.5%
Shelton Eppler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 5
OWN 21
+26
98.5%
Parker Pastorello punt for 38 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 26 yds to the NWSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:2199% → 100%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
98.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the NWSt 24Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+4
98.6%
Joe Burrow run for 4 yds to the NWSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
98.7%
Joe Burrow run for 8 yds to the NWSt 12Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+1
98.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the NWSt 11Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+5
98.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the NWSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:321% → 1%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Jared West run for no gain to the NWSt 25Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Levar GummsSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.4%
Shelton Eppler run for 4 yds to the NWSt 29Similar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Parker Pastorello punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:1999% → 100%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+65
99.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 65 yds to the NWSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
99.4%
John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 14Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+10
99.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 10 yds to the NWSt 4Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Stadford Anderson run for 5 yds to the NWSt 30Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Stadford Anderson run for 1 yd to the NWSt 31Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Akile DavisSimilar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+22
99.9%
Parker Pastorello punt for 46 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 22 yds to the LSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.9%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 9 yds to the NWSt 46Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+6
99.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the NWSt 35Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+7
99.9%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Tory Carter for 7 yds to the NWSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
99.9%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 18 yds to the NWSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
99.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 10 yds to the NWSt 1Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 20DOWNS
14 plays · 55 yds · 5:060% → 0%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Stadford Anderson run for no gain to the NWSt 25Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 20Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+13
99.9%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 13 yds to the NWSt 33Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
99.9%
Stadford Anderson run for 6 yds to the NWSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+27
99.9%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to David Fitzwater for 27 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 5 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
Stadford Anderson run for 1 yd to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+5
99.9%
Stadford Anderson run for 5 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Akile DavisSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
100.0%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 3 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
100.0%
Shelton Eppler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 7
OPP 20
0
100.0%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Levar GummsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
100.0%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Devonta Lee for 28 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
100.0%
John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+7
100.0%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 8
50
0
100.0%
Myles Brennan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 8
50
0
100.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NWSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 22PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-6
100.0%
Bryce Rivers sacked by Cameron Lewis and Travez Moore for a loss of 6 yards to the NWSt 8Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 16
OWN 8
0
100.0%
Trevor Morgan run for no gain to the NWSt 8Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 16
OWN 8
+8
100.0%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Trevor Morgan for 8 yds to the NWSt 16Similar
Q4 7:22
4TH & 8
OWN 16
+54
100.0%
Parker Pastorello punt for 38 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 54 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Bryce Rivers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Trevor Morgan run for 1 yd to the NWSt 26Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
100.0%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Trevor Morgan for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 25Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Parker Pastorello punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:13100% → 100%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
100.0%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 9 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+3
100.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
50
+9
100.0%
Myles Brennan run for 9 yds to the NWSt 41Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
100.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the NWSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
100.0%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 2 yds to the NWSt 37Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+35
100.0%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 35 yds to the NWSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
JaQuan Jackson run for 2 yds to the NWSt 27Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
100.0%
Kaleb Fletcher run for 1 yd to the NWSt 28Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
100.0%
Kaleb Fletcher run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:36
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 5:38
Shelton Eppler pass complete to David Fitzwater for 26 yds for a TD, (Scotty Roblow KICK)
-0.8
TD · Q2 3:27
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
+0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com