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CSU

Colorado State 34 at Arkansas 55

ARK
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFUMBLEEnd of GameFG-4.3ARK 76.4%Cayden Camper 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 27 - HOME 34 · Q3 5:45
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:45 · Cayden Camper 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior+10.2Home team on offense+5.4Score differential+1.8Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:31: Collin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:07: Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +8.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:26: Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 75 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +16.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  4. TD · Q4 8:52: Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +20.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:32: Nick Starkel pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 62 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +9.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:00CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:02ARK 4th & 11 at CSU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:41ARK 4th & 2 at CSU 4, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−5.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:41CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 19, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:31ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:11CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:41ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:04CSU 4th & 6 at ARK 28, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−5.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:45CSU 4th & 3 at ARK 3, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−10.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:45ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:40ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:35CSU 4th & 6 at ARK 32, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%−1.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:52CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:31CSU 4th & 28 at CSU 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:42CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:00ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:54ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:59ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 3:27CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:31CSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:07ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:26CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:52ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:32ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1822% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.0%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
77.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4278% → 78%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
77.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Treylon Burks for 38 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
77.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
77.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+6
77.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Mike Woods for 6 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
77.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 24 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Cameron Butler for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
77.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 7 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
77.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete, broken up by Hayden HenrySimilar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+7
77.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 18 , Treylon Burks returns for 7 yds to the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 3:3477% → 79%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
77.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
77.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Chase Harrell, broken up by Logan StewartSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+17
77.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 17 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
77.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
77.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
50
+4
77.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 4 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
77.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+24
77.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 24 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
77.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
77.5%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+14
78.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Chase Harrell for 14 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
78.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the ColSt 19Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
78.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
78.1%
Collin Hill pass incomplete, broken up by Montaric BrownSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
78.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2078% → 81%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Chase Harrell, broken up by Marshaun CameronSimilar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
77.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Trey Knox, PENALTY CSU pass interference (A. Neal) 16 yards to the AR41, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
81.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 59 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3220% → 24%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+34
79.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 34 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
79.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 6 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+19
79.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 19 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
79.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 14Similar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+34
79.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 34 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
79.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 14Similar
Q1 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
76.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 14 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:2578% → 78%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
78.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+9
77.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyson Morris for 9 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+9
77.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyson Morris for 9 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+25
78.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 25 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
79.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
79.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to De'Vion Warren, broken up by Tywan FrancisSimilar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-4
78.8%
Nick Starkel sacked by Jan-Phillip Bombek for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+54
78.4%
Connor Limpert 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:0221% → 21%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 6 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
78.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
78.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 38 Marvin Kinsey Jr. fumbled, forced by McTelvin Agim, recovered by Ark Montaric BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:1380% → 84%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
79.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
79.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
79.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
79.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+15
79.6%
Chase Hayden run for 15 yds to the ColSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
79.6%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the ColSt 10Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
79.6%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+6
79.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Chase Hayden for 6 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+22
83.6%
Connor Limpert 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Adam Prentice for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
82.9%
Marcus McElroy run for no gain to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
83.1%
Collin Hill sacked by Grant Morgan for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 19Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
83.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 47 yds , Treylon Burks returns for no gain to the Ark 35 Treylon Burks fumbled, TEAM return for 1 yd to the Ark 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 85%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
84.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 8 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-3
84.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 40 Rakeem Boyd fumbled, forced by Cam'ron Carter, recovered by ColSt Cam'ron CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:5518% → 25%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
82.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Adam Prentice for 5 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+15
81.7%
C. Hill pass incomplete to Tr. McBride, PENALTY AR pass interference (Joe Foucha) 15 yards to the AR20, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
81.7%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Montaric BrownSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
81.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for no gain to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+19
82.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 19 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.9%
Collin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
78.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Trey Knox, broken up by Dajon OwensSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
78.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+6
77.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Chase Hayden for 6 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
77.4%
Sam Loy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.9%
Dante Wright run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
77.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
77.8%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
78.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 39 yds , Treylon Burks returns for 1 yd to the Ark 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
78.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Mike Woods for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
78.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
79.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
79.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
78.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete, broken up by Jalen BatesSimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
77.7%
Sam Loy punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 2:3722% → 27%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
77.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 21 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
76.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+7
75.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 7 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
75.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marcus McElroy for 7 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
74.6%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+8
74.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
73.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Trey McBride for 4 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
73.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Marvin Kinsey Jr.Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
74.7%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Marvin Kinsey Jr.Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
72.6%
Cayden Camper 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.1%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:5372% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
72.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Treylon Burks for 10 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete, broken up by Rashad AjayiSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
73.0%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Trey Knox, PENALTY CSU pass interference (R. Ajayi) 15 yards to the CSU47, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
74.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 8 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+8
74.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 8 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+27
75.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Treylon Burks for 27 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Trey Knox, broken up by Dajon OwensSimilar
Q3 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20FG
17 plays · 72 yds · 7:2218% → 24%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
81.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Trey McBride for 10 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
81.2%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
81.5%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+15
82.1%
C. Hill pass complete to D. Wright for 15 yards to the AR43, fumble forced by Greg Brooks Jr., fumble by D. Wright recovered by AR De'Jon Harris at AR43, PENALTY AR roughing passer (Joe Foucha) 15 yards to the AR43, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
80.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+5
79.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
79.3%
Patrick O'Brien run for 3 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
79.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+8
80.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 8 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
79.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 8 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+2
79.3%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
79.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 9Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
79.3%
Patrick O'Brien run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 11Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+8
80.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to EJ Scott for 8 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
76.4%
Cayden Camper 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.8%
De'Vion Warren run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
81.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 4 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
81.2%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to De'Vion Warren, broken up by Anthony HawkinsSimilar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
80.5%
Sam Loy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 1:4422% → 38%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
78.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the ColSt 28Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-3
78.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+75
62.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 75 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:4664% → 60%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
66.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
65.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-4
61.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Ricky Stromberg) to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
59.9%
Sam Loy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24MISSED FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:5543% → 46%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
57.2%
Marcus McElroy run for 3 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+13
56.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 13 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
53.8%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+12
53.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 12 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
53.3%
Dante Wright run for 1 yd to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+3
51.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
53.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+50
54.4%
Cayden Camper 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:4362% → 89%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
61.8%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
61.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 12 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
65.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Treylon Burks for 17 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
66.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 20 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
67.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
67.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+6
66.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the ColSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
67.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q4 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante Wright, broken up by LaDarrius BishopSimilar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.6%
Patrick O'Brien run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
82.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
84.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 2:1087% → 97%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
87.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+9
86.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 9 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
87.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+62
96.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 62 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28FUMBLE TD
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:014% → 1%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Cameron Butler for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
95.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
95.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-10
96.1%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Gabe Richardson for a loss of 10 yards to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+25
99.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for a loss of 1 yard for a TD Marvin Kinsey Jr. fumbled, forced by Hayden Henry, recovered by Ark LaDarrius Bishop , return for 25 yds, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · -18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
99.4%
D. Wright rush for 3 yards to the CSU35 (Greg Brooks Jr.), PENALTY CSU illegal block (Tr. McBride) 15 yards to the CSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 25
OWN 17
-7
99.4%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by T.J. Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 10Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 32
OWN 10
0
99.4%
Marcus McElroy run for no gain to the ColSt 10Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 32
OWN 10
+4
99.5%
Patrick O'Brien run for 4 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 28
OWN 14
0
99.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 30Uncategorized
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
99.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:52
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)
+20.8
TD · Q3 2:26
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 75 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)
-16.3
TD · Q4 5:32
Nick Starkel pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 62 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com