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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreTA&M score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:52: Justyn Ross 30 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (B.T. Potter Kick) — CLEM win probability +1.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:57: B.T. Potter 29 Yd Field Goal — CLEM win probability +3.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:33: Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick) — CLEM win probability +4.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:50: Lyn-J Dixon 4 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick) — CLEM win probability +4.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:06: Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +2.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TA&M made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 14:07TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snapGo for it14.7%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.8%average punt
- Q1 10:26CLEM 4th & 9 at TA&M 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.3% before the snapGo for it84.2%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call84.3%56% to makePunt84.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:05TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q1 6:51CLEM 4th & 14 at CLEM 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snapGo for it82.4%−0.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.8%average punt
- Q1 3:23TA&M 4th & 1 at CLEM 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.7%70% to convertField goal18.0%−0.628% to makePunt18.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:18TA&M 4th & 10 at CLEM 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snapGo for it20.0%−0.427% to convertField goalTheir call20.4%83% to makePunt18.5%−1.9average punt
- Q2 4:57CLEM 4th & 8 at TA&M 12, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snapGo for it79.4%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call79.6%86% to makePunt76.8%−2.8average punt
- Q2 3:26TA&M 4th & 17 at TA&M 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snapGo for it14.7%−1.813% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%average punt
- Q3 14:17CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 26, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snapGo for it88.8%−0.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.6%average punt
- Q3 12:10TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.3%−0.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q3 10:04CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 33, up 14Close callPunted · 90.5% before the snapGo for it91.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.3%−0.9average punt
- Q3 8:22TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.926% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q3 2:50TA&M 4th & 9 at CLEM 48, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q4 14:35CLEM 4th & 10 at TA&M 44, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.130% to convertField goal98.1%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call98.4%average punt
- Q4 0:06TA&M 4th & 2 at CLEM 2, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%48% to convertField goal1.0%−0.294% to makePunt0.4%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TA&M made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q2 10:52CLEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.9%97% to makeGo for two80.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:33CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.7%97% to makeGo for two88.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:50CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:06TA&M Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.0%−0.197% to makeGo for two2.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:4814% → 14%
Q1 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Jalen Wydermyer) to the TexAM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2MISSED FG9 plays · 43 yds · 3:3286% → 85%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
85.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 2 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
85.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 3 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+14
85.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 14 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+24
85.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 24 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-1
85.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1415% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1084% → 83%
TA&MDrive 5FG19 plays · 48 yds · 7:2717% → 21%
CLEMDrive 6TD10 plays · 82 yds · 3:1380% → 83%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
79.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 9 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
79.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Justyn Ross, broken up by Myles JonesSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+27
79.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 27 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
80.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 5 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7FUMBLE6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5817% → 18%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
83.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 10 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
82.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 7 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
82.0%
Kellen Mond run for 8 yds to the TexAM 46 Kellen Mond fumbled, forced by Nolan Turner, recovered by Clem James SkalskiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8FG10 plays · 34 yds · 3:5283% → 85%
Q2 8:21
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+7
82.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Lyn-J Dixon for 7 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
83.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for no gain to the TexAM 14Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-16
83.0%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by Bobby Brown III for a loss of 16 yards to the TexAM 30 CLEMSON Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Trevor Lawrence) to the TexAM 30Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 26
OPP 30
+18
81.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 18 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 1:2515% → 15%
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
84.9%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jashaun Corbin, broken up by Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-8
85.2%
Kellen Mond sacked by Xavier Thomas and A.J. Terrell for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 18Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+70
85.5%
Braden Mann punt for 60 yds , Derion Kendrick returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 17 CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Block (Andrew Booth Jr.) to the Clem 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD13 plays · 89 yds · 2:3784% → 92%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
84.4%
Lawrence, Trevor pass complete to Ross, Justyn for 36 yards to the CLEMSON47, PENALTY CLEMSON ineligible downfield on pass (Simpson, John) 5 yards to the CLEMSON6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+14
84.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 14 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
84.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 6 yds to the Clem 47Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+1
85.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Lyn-J Dixon for 1 yd to the Clem 48Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
85.3%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXASAM roughing passer (Madubuike, Justin) 15 yards to the TEXASAM31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+29
85.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 29 yds to the TexAM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3790% → 89%
Q3 14:17
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
89.0%
Will Spiers punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the TexAM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5911% → 10%
CLEMDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5790% → 90%
Q3 11:30
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+9
90.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 9 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+2
90.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 2 yds to the Clem 33Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
90.4%
Will Spiers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the TexAM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3710% → 10%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
89.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 18 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
89.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 4 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
90.4%
Braden Mann punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Derion Kendrick at the Clem 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16TD8 plays · 83 yds · 2:2691% → 98%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
91.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Justyn Ross, broken up by Myles JonesSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
91.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 8 yds to the Clem 25 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Demani Richardson) to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+14
92.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 14 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
92.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 14 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
92.5%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete to Higgins, Tee, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Blades, Elijah) 15 yards to the TEXASAM13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 2:543% → 3%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
96.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 16 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
96.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 10 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
97.2%
Kellen Mond sacked by K'Von Wallace for a loss of 10 yards to the TexAM 41Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+16
97.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 16 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-5
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexAM Kellen MondSimilar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
97.5%
Braden Mann punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Derion Kendrick at the Clem 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 45 yds · 3:0798% → 99%
Q3 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+8
97.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 8 yds to the Clem 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+25
98.5%
Lyn-J Dixon run for 10 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Charles Oliver) to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for no gain to the TexAM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19INT10 plays · 69 yds · 4:591% → 1%
Q4 13:05
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+12
98.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 12 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
98.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 16 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
98.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 16 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+15
98.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 15 yds to the Clem 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
98.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 4 yds to the Clem 12Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+1
98.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 1 yd to the Clem 11Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
98.8%
Kellen Mond pass intercepted Tanner Muse return for no gain to the Clem 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20INT8 plays · 63 yds · 3:2299% → 99%
TA&MDrive 21TD19 plays · 91 yds · 5:351% → 3%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
99.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 9 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 8 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+24
99.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 9 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Roughing Passer (K'Von Wallace) to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+16
99.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 16 yds to the Clem 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
99.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 7 yds to the Clem 19Similar
Q4 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
99.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 6 yds to the Clem 2Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney Davis, broken up by Tanner MuseSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon Ausbon, broken up by A.J. TerrellSimilar
Q4 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22END OF GAME2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:50
Lyn-J Dixon 4 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick)
+4.9
TD · Q2 0:33
Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick)
+4.7
FG · Q2 4:57
B.T. Potter 29 Yd Field Goal
+3.2