2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadCHSO aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreCHSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:47 · Parker White 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:29: Rico Dowdle run for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — CHSO win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- FG · Q1 2:47: Miller Braddock 41 yd FG GOOD — CHSO win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CHSO has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:06: Dakereon Joyner run for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:00: Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 60 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- FG · Q2 6:47: Parker White 47 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CHSO made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:29CHSO 4th & 16 at CHSO 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 9:20CHSO 4th & 4 at CHSO 46, down 7Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:47CHSO 4th & 8 at SC 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.6%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call2.6%68% to makePunt2.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00CHSO 4th & 11 at CHSO 24, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q2 12:13CHSO 4th & 10 at CHSO 25, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q2 6:47SC 4th & 10 at CHSO 29, up 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%58% to makePunt98.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 6:47CHSO 4th & 2 at SC 37, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%57% to convertField goal0.5%−0.140% to makePunt0.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 4:25SC 4th & 1 at SC 38, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:00CHSO 4th & 7 at CHSO 28, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 2:21CHSO 4th & 6 at SC 8, down 48Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goal0.1%90% to makePunt-0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 14:34SC 4th & 1 at SC 43, up 48Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:34CHSO 4th & 8 at CHSO 37, down 55Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 10 of 10CHSO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:29SC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:58SC Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:06SC Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:13SC Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:00SC Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:34SC Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:00SC Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:34SC Touchdown, up 54 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:49SC Touchdown, up 61 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:10CHSO Touchdown, down 56 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:35SC Touchdown, up 61 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1TD10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3199% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
98.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 9 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+5
98.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 5 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
98.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Shi Smith for 10 yds to the ChaSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+11
98.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to OrTre Smith for 11 yds to the ChaSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 2PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
98.6%
Jack Chambers sacked by Javon Kinlaw for a loss of 6 yards to the ChaSo 24Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 15
OWN 25
-1
98.6%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Ronnie Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the ChaSo 24Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
98.6%
Kyle Reighard punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3FUMBLE1 play · 10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
50
+8
98.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Nick Muse for 8 yds Nick Muse fumbled, forced by Cody Cline, recovered by ChaSo Justin McIntireSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
SCDrive 5TD6 plays · 80 yds · 1:4998% → 99%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
98.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 12 yds to the SCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
98.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 3 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+8
98.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Kyle Markway for 8 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
98.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 14 yds to the ChaSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+39
98.4%
Rico Dowdle run for 35 yds to the ChaSo 8 for a 1ST down CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, face mask (4 yards) (Craig Johnson) to the ChaSo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 6FG11 plays · 64 yds · 3:112% → 2%
Q1 5:58
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+6
98.4%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Terrence Wilson for 6 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+15
98.3%
CHAMBERS, J. pass incomplete to CABALLERO, Q., PENALTY SC pass interference (Israel Mukuamu) 15 yards to the SC26, 1ST DOWN CHSO, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7TD7 plays · 68 yds · 2:4198% → 99%
CHSODrive 8PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:062% → 2%
SCDrive 9TD8 plays · 61 yds · 2:2899% → 99%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Bryan Edwards, broken up by Tavian MontgomerySimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
98.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Kyle Markway for 9 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+17
98.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to OrTre Smith for 17 yds to the ChaSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 10 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 10PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
SCDrive 11TD2 plays · 62 yds · 0:4199% → 99%
CHSODrive 12INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+3
99.2%
Christian Reid pass intercepted R.J. Roderick return for 3 yds to the ChaSo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13FG6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3699% → 100%
Q2 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Josh Vann for no gain to the ChaSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 14INT8 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
99.6%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Kameron Brown for 20 yds to the ChaSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
99.6%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Dylan Jones for 10 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.6%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Geoffrey Wall for 5 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 5
OPP 0
0
99.5%
CHAMBERS, J. pass complete to JONES, D. for 7 yards to the SC33 (John Dixon;Sherrod Greene), PENALTY CHSO holding off-setting, PENALTY SC personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+3
99.6%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Geoffrey Wall for 3 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
99.6%
Jack Chambers pass intercepted Israel Mukuamu return for no gain to the SCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15TD12 plays · 86 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q2 4:25
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+11
99.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 11 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
99.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Josh Vann for 4 yds to the SCaro 36Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+2
99.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 2 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+24
99.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 24 yds to the ChaSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
99.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Josh Vann for 19 yds to the ChaSo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 17INT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.7%
Jack Chambers pass intercepted John Dixon return for 3 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18TD9 plays · 55 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
CHSODrive 19PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
SCDrive 20INT2 plays · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
99.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass intercepted Tavian Montgomery return for 1 yd to the ChaSo 40 CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, illegal block (Shaundre Mims) to the ChaSo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 21DOWNS14 plays · 73 yds · 6:270% → 0%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
99.9%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Christian Reid for 7 yds to the ChaSo 26Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+6
99.9%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Christian Reid for 6 yds to the ChaSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+18
99.9%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Ronnie Harris for 18 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
99.9%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Kaleb Chatmon for 6 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Jack Chambers pass incomplete to Christian Reid, broken up by Rosendo Louis Jr.Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+20
99.9%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Terrence Wilson for 20 yds to the SCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
99.8%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Geoffrey Wall for 11 yds to the SCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 6
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Jack Chambers pass incomplete to Geoffrey Wall, broken up by Jabari EllisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22TD5 plays · 92 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q3 2:05
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Keshawn Toney for no gain to the SCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 23PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
SCDrive 24TD4 plays · 70 yds · 2:24100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 25TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:390% → 0%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Ross Malmgren pass complete to Isaiah Stephens for 5 yds to the ChaSo 30Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
100.0%
Ross Malmgren pass complete to Jaquan Williams for 10 yds to the ChaSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
100.0%
Ross Malmgren pass complete to Isaiah Stephens for 6 yds to the ChaSo 46Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
100.0%
Ross Malmgren pass complete to Isaac Ross for 5 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
Ross Malmgren pass complete to Isaiah Stephens for 2 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
100.0%
Ross Malmgren pass complete to Kaleb Chatmon for 3 yds to the SCaro 36Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+32
100.0%
Ross Malmgren pass complete to Jaquan Williams for 32 yds to the SCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Ross Malmgren pass complete to Jaquan Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (Miller Braddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 26TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:00
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 60 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 0:06
Dakereon Joyner run for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
+0.4
FG · Q2 6:47
Parker White 47 yd FG GOOD
+0.3