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USM

Southern Miss 15 at Mississippi State 38

MSST
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:54 · Zac Everett punt for 43 yds, downed at the MisSt 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+21.8Home team on offense+10.4Score differential+3.1Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 11 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +3.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:42: Nick Gibson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +5.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:37: Kylin Hill run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +2.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:42: Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 28 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +3.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:31: Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 65 yds for a TD, (Jack Abraham pass to Trevor Terry for Two-Point Conversion) — USM win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 5 at USM 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:50USM 4th & 10 at MSST 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:39MSST 4th & 2 at midfield, up 14
    Close callPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:50USM 4th & 7 at USM 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:58MSST 4th & 23 at MSST 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:54USM 4th & 5 at USM 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:20USM 4th & 12 at USM 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:12MSST 4th & 2 at USM 12, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:03USM 4th & 7 at USM 15, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:04MSST 4th & 9 at USM 25, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:31MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, up 16
    Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:36MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:42MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:37MSST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:42USM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:31USM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:20MSST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
84.7%
De'Michael Harris run for 7 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
84.7%
Jaylond Adams run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
84.7%
Jack Abraham run for 4 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
84.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 4 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
84.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Cameron DantzlerSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+1
84.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 1 yd to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
84.7%
Matt Bromell punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:0984% → 85%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
83.8%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 12 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
84.0%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+11
84.0%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 11 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
84.0%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+28
84.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 28 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:4616% → 16%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.1%
Kevin Perkins run for 7 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
83.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 8 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
83.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 20 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
83.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 8 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+2
83.7%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
83.7%
Steven Anderson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
83.7%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
83.7%
Jaylond Adams run for no gain to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
83.8%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
83.6%
Andrew Stein 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:5584% → 87%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.8%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Dontea Jones for 3 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
83.8%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
83.7%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Dontea Jones for 6 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
83.9%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 18 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
84.3%
Kylin Hill run for 22 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
84.4%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 6 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+6
84.4%
Tommy Stevens run for 6 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
84.4%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
87.4%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 11 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FUMBLE
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:0414% → 13%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
85.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 18 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
85.6%
Darius Maberry run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
86.4%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+25
86.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 25 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
85.9%
Jordan Kempf run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 15
OPP 29
-7
86.5%
Jack Abraham sacked by Brian Cole II for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 22
OPP 36
-5
87.0%
Jack Abraham sacked by Marquiss Spencer for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 42 Jack Abraham fumbled, recovered by MisSt Tyler Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
88.5%
Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+10
88.4%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 10 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-1
88.4%
Nick Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 2
50
0
88.1%
Tucker Day punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ty Williams at the SoMis 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
87.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 3 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+7
87.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trevor Terry for 7 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
87.6%
Dee Baker run for 2 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
87.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to De'Michael HarrisSimilar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+1
87.7%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
87.8%
Matt Bromell punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:2989% → 88%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
50
-8
88.8%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Ty Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 18
OWN 42
-5
88.8%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Ty Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 23
OWN 37
0
88.4%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 23
OWN 37
0
88.0%
Tucker Day punt for 59 yds, downed at the SoMis 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
88.6%
Kevin Perkins run for 5 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+2
88.7%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 3
OWN 11
-2
88.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 9Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 5
OWN 9
0
88.9%
Zac Everett punt for 43 yds, downed at the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:5590% → 96%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
89.9%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+16
89.9%
Kylin Hill run for 16 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
90.0%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+10
90.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 10 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
90.5%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
96.4%
Nick Gibson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:375% → 3%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.9%
De'Michael Harris run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
94.6%
De'Michael Harris run for 10 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
96.6%
Kevin Perkins run for 12 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.7%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
95.7%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
95.5%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
95.3%
Tucker Day punt for 47 yds , Jaylond Adams returns for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
95.1%
Jack Abraham run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 18 Jack Abraham fumbled, recovered by SoMis Ray LadnerSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 19
OWN 18
-1
95.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 17Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 20
OWN 17
+8
95.4%
Darius Maberry run for 8 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 12
OWN 25
+8
95.3%
Zac Everett punt for 41 yds , Malik Dear returns for 8 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:2597% → 100%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
96.7%
Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+1
96.7%
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+9
96.7%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.8%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+22
96.8%
Kylin Hill run for 22 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
96.8%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+10
96.8%
Garrett Shrader run for 10 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
96.7%
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the SoMis 3Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.6%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:551% → 4%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Kevin Perkins for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
99.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 18 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
99.4%
Kevin Perkins run for 26 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
96.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 28 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 5:3098% → 99%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.7%
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
97.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
97.9%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+10
97.9%
Nick Gibson run for 10 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
97.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Kylin Hill for 15 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
97.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, delay of game (Garrett Shrader) to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+16
97.9%
Kylin Hill run for 16 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.9%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Geor'quarius SpiveySimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
97.9%
Lee Witherspoon run for 4 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+4
98.9%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+30
99.1%
Jace Christmann 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
98.6%
Darius Maberry run for no gain to the SoMis 12 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, offside defense (Leo Lewis) to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 5
OWN 17
+2
98.6%
Darius Maberry run for 2 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+1
98.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 1 yd to the SoMis 20Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 2
OWN 20
-5
98.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 15Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
98.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond AdamsSimilar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
98.6%
Zac Everett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 5:1299% → 100%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Kylin Hill for 4 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
99.3%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Cameron Gardner, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+7
99.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 7 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+17
99.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 17 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-7
99.4%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Eriq Kitchen for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 17
OPP 33
+4
99.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+4
99.6%
Lee Witherspoon run for 4 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
99.5%
Jace Christmann 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:331% → 4%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 10 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
96.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 65 yds for a TD, (Jack Abraham pass to Trevor Terry for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.3%
Lee Witherspoon run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
97.3%
Lee Witherspoon run for 4 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
97.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.2%
Tucker Day punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jaylond Adams at the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21INT
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
97.5%
Jack Abraham run for 4 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+20
97.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 20 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+45
97.3%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Martin Emerson return for 45 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:4798% → 100%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.4%
Lee Witherspoon run for no gain to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.7%
Lee Witherspoon run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.5%
De'Michael Harris run for 18 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.5%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.5%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted C.J. Morgan return for 9 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Robert Rivers for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
99.8%
Lee Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:42
Nick Gibson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q4 6:31
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 65 yds for a TD, (Jack Abraham pass to Trevor Terry for Two-Point Conversion)
-3.1
TD · Q2 14:55
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 11 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com