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ARK

Arkansas 17 at Ole Miss 31

MISS
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFUMBLETDTDTDEnd of GameTD+8.3MISS 95.3%Matt Corral pass complete to ElijahMoore for 46 yds for a TD, (Luke LoganKICK)AWAY 10 - HOME 24 · Q4 11:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:09 · Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 46 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Home team on offense+25.0Pregame prior+2.0Score differential+10.7Garbage-time factor+11.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:24: Luke Logan 33 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +4.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:34: Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +10.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q4 13:31: Octavious Cooley run for 5 yds Octavious Cooley fumbled, forced by Kamren Curl, recovered by Ark Kamren Curl , return for 69 yds, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +6.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:09: Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 46 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +8.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:03: Scottie Phillips run for 26 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:21ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34ARK 4th & 3 at MISS 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:46MISS 4th & 9 at ARK 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    68.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ARK 4th & 12 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:02MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:19ARK 4th & 8 at MISS 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:19MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:34ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:50ARK 4th & 7 at MISS 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:16ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 21, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:18MISS 4th & 1 at ARK 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−2.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−4.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:50ARK 4th & 2 at MISS 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.2%−2.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−4.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:09ARK 4th & 24 at ARK 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:58ARK 4th & 16 at MISS 20, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:34MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 29, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ARK made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 8:41MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:34MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:09MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:03MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:21ARK Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
61.3%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
61.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+13
61.3%
Mac Brown punt for 50 yds , Treylon Burks returns for 13 yds to the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
61.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
61.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
61.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:21
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
61.3%
Sam Loy punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 4:3561% → 64%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
61.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 21 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
61.3%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+5
61.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+26
61.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 26 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
61.6%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
61.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 12 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
61.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+4
61.6%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+3
61.5%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
61.6%
Matt Corral run for 11 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
61.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 2Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
61.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Ark 2Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
63.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+10
63.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 10 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
63.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Mike Woods for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+8
63.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 8 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+7
63.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 7 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
63.0%
Rakeem Boyd pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 1 yd to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+6
63.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 6 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
62.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
63.1%
Sam Loy punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
64.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
50
+9
65.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 9 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
65.7%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
65.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 32 yards to the AR7 (Jarques McClellion), PENALTY OM pass interference (Dontario Drummond) 15 yards to the OM46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 25
OWN 46
+3
65.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 22
OWN 49
+13
65.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 13 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
65.3%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
64.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jason Pellerin, broken up by Greg Brooks Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0836% → 34%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
64.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 8 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-3
63.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+9
64.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 9 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
63.7%
Ben Hicks sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+2
65.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
50
0
65.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
50
0
66.1%
Sam Loy punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
66.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 5 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+2
66.3%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+23
65.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 23 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
67.4%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
67.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-7
66.3%
Matt Corral sacked by Gabe Richardson for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 17
OWN 38
+15
65.3%
Mac Brown punt for 47 yds , Treylon Burks returns for 15 yds to the OLEMISS 47 OLE MISS Penalty, illegal block (Mac Brown) to the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:1135% → 37%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
65.4%
De'Vion Warren run for 12 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
65.8%
Ben Hicks sacked by Ryder Anderson and Jacquez Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 18
OWN 49
+30
67.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Mike Woods for 30 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
65.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
65.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
66.4%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
63.3%
Connor Limpert 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
63.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, delay of game (Matt Corral) to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
63.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 15 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
64.1%
Matt Corral run for 14 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
65.6%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 17
OWN 42
0
64.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Scottie PhillipsSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 17
OWN 42
0
63.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 17
OWN 42
0
62.5%
Mac Brown punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
65.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Ark 9Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
65.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
66.1%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
66.7%
Sam Loy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Ark 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:0667% → 73%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
67.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 9 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+6
67.1%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+23
67.3%
Matt Corral run for 23 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
67.3%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Ark 9Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
67.3%
Scottie Phillips rush for loss of 2 yards to the AR11 (Pool,Bumper;Morgan,Grant), PENALTY OM holding (Nick Broeker) 10 yards to the AR19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+1
67.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Ark 18Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+2
65.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 2 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
72.7%
Luke Logan 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 1:2828% → 29%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
72.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Devwah WhaleySimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
72.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+1
73.0%
Ben Hicks run for 1 yd to the Ark 23Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+49
73.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Knox for 49 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
67.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Knox for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
69.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Devwah WhaleySimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+6
71.9%
Ben Hicks run for 6 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
71.1%
Connor Limpert 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0072% → 73%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
72.5%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:4029% → 26%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
70.7%
Boyd,Rakeem rush for 3 yards to the AR15 (Lakia Henry;Ryder Anderson), PENALTY AR illegal formation 5 yards to the AR7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 15
OWN 7
0
73.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Ark 7Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 15
OWN 7
+8
73.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 8 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+6
73.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Treylon Burks for 6 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q3 14:16
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
73.6%
Sam Loy punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.0%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
74.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+13
74.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 13 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
75.4%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
75.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 7 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
75.2%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+1
74.1%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Ark 27 Matt Corral fumbled, recovered by Ark Joe Foucha , return for no gain to the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:4127% → 27%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
73.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Mike Woods for 12 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
72.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 10 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
71.0%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
71.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 8 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+5
70.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-14
70.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Mike Woods for a loss of 14 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 24
OWN 48
+14
73.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 14 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-5
73.0%
Starkel,Nick pass complete to Knox,Trey for 38 yards to the OM0, clock 05:50, PENALTY AR ineligible downfield on pass (Cheyenne O'Grady) 5 yards to the OM43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+13
74.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 13 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+1
73.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:5979% → 93%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
79.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 4 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
79.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+18
78.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 18 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
81.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 9 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+1
81.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete, broken up by Greg Brooks Jr.Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
80.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete, PENALTY AR face mask (Williams,Zach) 15 yards to the AR22, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
81.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 21 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:0010% → 12%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
89.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 3 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+10
89.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 10 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
89.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+23
88.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyson Morris for 8 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, personal foul (Jon Haynes) to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
88.3%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 42 Devwah Whaley fumbled, recovered by Miss Luke KnoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:1894% → 88%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
93.5%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
93.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 10 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
93.9%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+12
93.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 12 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+69
87.8%
Octavious Cooley run for 5 yds Octavious Cooley fumbled, forced by Kamren Curl, recovered by Ark Kamren Curl , return for 69 yds, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:1786% → 95%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
85.6%
Elijah Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+10
85.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 10 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+15
85.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario Drummond, PENALTY AR pass interference (Jarques McClellion) 15 yards to the OM49, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
87.0%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+3
87.0%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+46
95.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 46 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
93.7%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+25
93.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 25 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Trey Knox, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
93.2%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-5
93.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Dalton Wagner) to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 15
OWN 44
-9
93.8%
Nick Starkel sacked by Charles Wiley for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 24
OWN 35
0
94.0%
Sam Loy punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 3:0596% → 99%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
95.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
95.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+25
95.9%
Snoop Conner run for 25 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
96.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 8 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+26
99.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 26 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+45
99.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Mike Woods for 45 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-6
99.1%
Chase Hayden run for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 16
OPP 20
0
99.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'Grady, broken up by Donta EvansSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 16
OPP 20
0
99.2%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 16
OPP 20
0
99.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Chase HaydenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.4%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
99.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
99.4%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Mac Brown punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:061% → 3%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
99.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Mike Woods for 13 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
99.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Koilan Jackson for 13 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
99.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Chase Hayden for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+22
99.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Treylon Burks for 22 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 5 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+26
99.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 26 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Koilan Jackson for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
98.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-2
98.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:34
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q4 11:09
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 46 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
+8.3
FUMBLE · Q4 13:31
Octavious Cooley run for 5 yds Octavious Cooley fumbled, forced by Kamren Curl, recovered by Ark Kamren Curl , return for 69 yds, (Connor Limpert KICK)
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com