Try the model
LSU

LSU 45 at Texas 38

TEX
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:19 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:36: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 20 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +17.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q4 14:52: Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 26 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:09: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 44 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +20.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 9:58: Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 12 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +16.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:22: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 15 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +18.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:02TEX 4th & 2 at LSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04LSU 4th & 5 at TEX 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:04TEX 4th & 2 at LSU 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:20TEX 4th & 1 at LSU 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:50LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:35TEX 4th & 5 at LSU 40, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−1.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:41LSU 4th & 15 at TEX 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−6.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:13TEX 4th & 21 at TEX 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−3.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:08LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 34, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:10LSU 4th & 6 at TEX 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−8.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:09TEX 4th & 3 at LSU 44, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−4.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:59TEX 4th & 9 at LSU 29, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.0%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−4.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 10:29TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:30LSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:47LSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:51TEX Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:36TEX Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:52LSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:09TEX Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:58LSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:27LSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    94.8%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.4%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:22TEX Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:4829% → 30%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
29.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 19 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
29.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 8 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
29.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
29.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for no gain to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
30.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 37 yds, downed at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:5170% → 68%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
30.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+6
30.4%
Joe Burrow run for 6 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+2
30.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
30.8%
Joe Burrow run for 3 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
31.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+9
31.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+38
31.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 38 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
31.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+3
31.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 3 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
31.5%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Clyde Edwards-HelaireSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
31.6%
Cade York 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 73 yds · 2:5032% → 33%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
32.4%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Duvernay, Devin, PENALTY LSU personal foul (Lawrence, Rashard) 15 yards to the TEXAS47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
32.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
33.0%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (JaCoby Stevens) to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+8
33.1%
Devin Duvernay pass complete to Sam Ehlinger for 8 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+28
33.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 28 yds to the LSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
33.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
33.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
33.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
32.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Keaontay IngramSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:5267% → 66%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
33.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+1
33.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 4Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+8
33.6%
Joe Burrow pass intercepted Joseph Ossai return for 8 yds to the LSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5DOWNS
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:4034% → 34%
Q1 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
34.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
33.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:2267% → 65%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
33.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 9 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+3
33.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
33.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 6 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 4
OWN 21
-2
33.5%
Joe Burrow sacked by B.J. Foster for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 19Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+16
34.5%
Joe Burrow run for 16 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
33.3%
Joe Burrow sacked by B.J. Foster for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-3
33.9%
Lanard Fournette run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+9
34.7%
Lanard Fournette run for 9 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+2
35.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 44 yds , Jake Smith returns for 2 yds to the Texas 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:1235% → 41%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
34.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
35.3%
Roschon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
35.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
35.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 6 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+6
36.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 6 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
37.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
36.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+55
40.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 55 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3759% → 67%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
40.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 17 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
39.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 6
50
+24
38.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 24 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
38.1%
Fournette, Lanard rush for 1 yard to the TEXAS25, PENALTY TEXAS offside 5 yards to the TEXAS21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 5
OPP 21
+12
38.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 12 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
38.9%
Lanard Fournette run for 3 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
39.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
32.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 6 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:5035% → 39%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
35.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
34.4%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Epps, Malcolm, PENALTY LSU holding (Phillips, Jacob) 10 yards to the TEXAS38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
36.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 17 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
38.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 4 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
38.5%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-1
38.4%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by JaCoby Stevens for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
38.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:4764% → 72%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
36.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 13 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+23
35.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 23 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
34.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+20
34.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 20 yds to the Texas 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
33.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 6 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+9
33.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
32.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
32.1%
Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-11
31.9%
Joe Burrow sacked by Joseph Ossai for a loss of 11 yards to the Texas 15Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
28.5%
Cade York 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:2330% → 29%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
29.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Keaontay IngramSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-12
28.9%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by K'Lavon Chaisson for a loss of 12 yards to the Texas 14Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+11
29.2%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 55 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 11 yds to the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:2072% → 83%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
28.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 19 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
26.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 18 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
17.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 21 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0524% → 24%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4479% → 79%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
20.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
21.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Clyde Edwards-HelaireSimilar
Q3 14:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
21.5%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jake Smith at the Texas 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15TD
19 plays · 86 yds · 7:1123% → 38%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
22.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Texas 19 Keaontay Ingram fumbled, forced by Jacob Phillips, recovered by Texas Keaontay IngramSimilar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+7
22.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
22.8%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+7
22.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 7 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
22.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
22.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 11 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
23.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reese Leitao for 7 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
23.6%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
23.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
23.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 4 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+8
23.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 8 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
24.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
24.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+12
22.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 12 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
23.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 4 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+5
23.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+5
22.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
23.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the LSU 2Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:4171% → 76%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
29.1%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Saahdiq Charles) to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+41
29.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 41 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
26.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 13 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
25.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 8 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 2
OPP 18
-4
25.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 22Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
24.2%
Cade York 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2725% → 47%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
24.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 18 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
26.1%
Roschon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+17
27.0%
Sam Ehlinger run for 17 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
28.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 15 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
29.0%
Devin Duvernay run for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
29.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
46.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 20 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3961% → 82%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
38.8%
Joe Burrow run for 3 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+26
37.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 26 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
34.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+12
33.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 12 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
17.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 26 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3822% → 45%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
21.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 11 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
22.8%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Derek Kerstetter) to the Texas 31Similar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+2
21.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+16
21.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 16 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
23.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 49Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
23.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 7 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
24.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+44
45.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 44 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0563% → 85%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Lanard Fournette for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
37.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 18 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
34.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Lanard Fournette for 2 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+15
34.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 15 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
33.4%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Chase, Ja'Marr, PENALTY TEXAS roughing passer (Roach, Malcolm) 15 yards to the TEXAS24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
31.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 12 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
14.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 12 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:5317% → 26%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
17.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
16.1%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Glen Logan for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
14.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 19 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
17.4%
Ehlinger, Sam rush for 25 yards to the LSU31, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Braun, Parker) 10 yards to the TEXAS34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 20
OWN 34
-4
15.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 24
OWN 30
+13
14.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 13 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+12
13.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 12 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
16.7%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Eagles, Brennan, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Fulton, Kristian) 15 yards to the LSU30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-12
18.3%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Michael Divinity Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 22
OPP 42
0
14.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 22
OPP 42
+13
13.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 13 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
25.6%
Cameron Dicker 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:2786% → 97%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
14.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 11 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
12.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+3
10.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
10.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-7
10.1%
Joe Burrow sacked by Brandon Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+61
2.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 61 yds for a TD, (Joe Burrow pass to Ja'Marr Chase for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:003% → 22%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
2.7%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Andre Anthony for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 23Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+13
2.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 13 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
2.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 3 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+31
2.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 31 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
2.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
3.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 4 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 1
OPP 20
-9
3.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 1 yd to the LSU 20 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brennan Eagles) to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+15
2.7%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Johnson, Collin, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Harris Jr., Todd) 15 yards to the LSU15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
21.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 15 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:09
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 44 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+20.4
TD · Q4 0:22
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 15 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+18.9
TD · Q3 2:36
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 20 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com