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NMSU

New Mexico State 10 at Alabama 62

ALA
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:26 · Payton Theisler punt for 41 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 7 yds to the Alab 32 ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Alab 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Pregame prior+29.7Home team on offense+35.3Score differential+29.1Blowout margin+16.6Garbage-time factor+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 23 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:08: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 10 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:12NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:15ALA 4th & 2 at NMSU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:13NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:48ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 27, up 14
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:29NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:29ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 19, up 14
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:07NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 33, down 21
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:31NMSU 4th & 19 at NMSU 26, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:04ALA 4th & 7 at NMSU 30, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:43NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 33, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:03ALA 4th & 2 at NMSU 47, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:40ALA 4th & 5 at NMSU 31, up 45
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:26NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 25, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:07NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 26, down 55
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:03ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 14, up 55
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:00NMSU 4th & 1 at ALA 26, down 55
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    -0.1%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:43ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 28, up 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:47ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:08ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:08ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:49ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:20ALA Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:59NMSU Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:19ALA Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:13ALA Touchdown, up 54 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.9%
Henry Ruggs III run for 75 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-2
99.8%
Payton Theisler punt for 50 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 25 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Alab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 4:07100% → 100%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 17 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+22
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 22 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+1
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+12
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 12 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+8
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+3
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 21 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:350% → 0%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 35 yds, downed at the Alab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.7%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
99.7%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Skyler DeLong punt for 37 yds, downed at the NMxSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
99.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-1
99.7%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 55 yds, downed at the Alab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+7
99.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 7 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 3
OWN 19
0
99.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 3
OWN 19
+36
99.6%
Skyler DeLong punt for 41 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the ALABAMA 40 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:090% → 0%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.6%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.6%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line Jason Huntley fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.7%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
99.7%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+19
99.6%
Najee Harris run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-1
99.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+23
99.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 23 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.7%
Josh Adkins sacked by Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+12
99.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 12 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 3 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+39
99.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 39 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
99.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+3
99.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
99.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-5
99.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Participation (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 13
OPP 25
0
99.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+15
99.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 15 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 10 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12INT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:180% → 0%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.8%
Josh Adkins run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 15 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.8%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+10
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tevis Abraham for 10 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 12
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 12
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Patrick Surtain II return for no gain to the Alab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+29
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 29 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 12 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 10 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+25
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 25 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-11
99.9%
Josh Adkins sacked by LaBryan Ray for a loss of 11 yards to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 19
OWN 26
+24
99.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 31 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 24 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:21100% → 100%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
99.9%
Will Reichard 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:120% → 0%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 9 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-3
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+22
99.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the ALABAMA 30 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:58100% → 100%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 2 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+9
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 3 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+5
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
Drew Dan run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 13 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+44
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 44 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the Alab 4Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins run for no gain to the Alab 4Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Jason Huntley 4 Yd pass from Josh Adkins (Dylan Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+23
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 23 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+7
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 14 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 19 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:240% → 0%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 12 yds Naveon Mitchell fumbled, forced by Keilan Robinson, recovered by Alab Josh Jobe , return for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+49
99.9%
Will Reichard 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
100.0%
Josh Adkins sacked by Christopher Allen for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 41 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 7 yds to the Alab 32 ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Alab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
100.0%
Keilan Robinson run for 74 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for no gain to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 65 yds, downed at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
100.0%
Keilan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+3
100.0%
Keilan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 2
OWN 17
-3
100.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 14Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
100.0%
Skyler DeLong punt for 44 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27FG
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
100.0%
Josh Foley run for 23 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
100.0%
Josh Foley run for 2 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
100.0%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+7
100.0%
Matt Romero pass complete to Eli Anderson for 7 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+43
100.0%
Dylan Brown 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Keilan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
100.0%
Keilan Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 23Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
100.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Giles Amos for 5 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Skyler DeLong punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29END OF GAME
16 plays · 65 yds · 7:200% → 0%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
100.0%
Josh Foley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+10
100.0%
Matt Romero run for 10 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
100.0%
Josh Foley run for 7 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
100.0%
Josh Foley run for 6 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
100.0%
Eli Anderson run for 2 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+9
100.0%
Matt Romero pass complete to Eli Anderson for 9 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
100.0%
Eli Anderson run for 6 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
100.0%
Josh Foley run for 2 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+3
100.0%
Josh Foley run for 3 yds to the Alab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
100.0%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+9
100.0%
Drew Dan run for 9 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
100.0%
Eli Anderson run for 2 yds to the Alab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
100.0%
Matt Romero run for no gain to the Alab 2Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
100.0%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
100.0%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:00
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 23 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 10:08
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 10 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
+0.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com