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SC

South Carolina 20 at North Carolina 24

UNC
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.5UNC 25.2%Noah Ruggles 24 Yd Field GoalAWAY 13 - HOME 6 · Q2 1:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:50 · Noah Ruggles 24 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Pregame prior−18.6Home team on offense−4.5Garbage-time factor−2.3Score differential−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:09: Tavien Feaster 34 Yd Run (Parker White Kick) — SC win probability +2.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 7:55: Noah Ruggles 22 Yd Field Goal — UNC win probability +5.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:10: Kyle Markway 22 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Parker White Kick) — SC win probability +10.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:27: Dyami Brown 22 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Sam Howell Run for Two-Point Conversion) — UNC win probability +23.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 8:26: Beau Corrales 17 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Noah Ruggles Kick) — UNC win probability +29.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 11SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:30SC 4th & 7 at UNC 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:58UNC 4th & 4 at SC 5, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.6%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:31UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55SC 4th & 10 at UNC 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:56UNC 4th & 18 at SC 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:24SC 4th & 7 at UNC 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:50UNC 4th & 7 at SC 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:39SC 4th & 1 at SC 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:17UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:02UNC 4th & 19 at UNC 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−3.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:18SC 4th & 9 at SC 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:38UNC 4th & 1 at SC 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    25.1%−3.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−12.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:55UNC 4th & 3 at SC 5, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.1%−1.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−12.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:47SC 4th & 6 at UNC 38, up 11
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−0.9
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:43SC 4th & 1 at SC 49, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.2 ptsPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−5.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:57SC 4th & 18 at SC 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−4.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:22UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 33, up 4
    Close callPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:19UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 30, up 4
    Close callPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:11UNC 4th & 14 at midfield, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:09SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:10SC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:27UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:26UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:2481% → 79%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
19.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 7 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+16
19.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
50
+21
19.8%
Rico Dowdle run for 21 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
19.9%
Rico Dowdle run for 6 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+5
20.2%
Tavien Feaster run for 5 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
20.3%
Tavien Feaster run for 3 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
20.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for no gain to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
20.7%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
20.8%
Parker White 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:3221% → 24%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
20.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+23
20.9%
Michael Carter run for 23 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
21.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 10 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
21.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ed Montilus) to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 15
OWN 48
-3
21.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 18
OWN 45
+8
21.6%
Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+25
21.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 25 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
22.6%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the SCaro 18Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+7
23.0%
Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the SCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
23.3%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the SCaro 10Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
23.6%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the SCaro 8Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+3
23.6%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the SCaro 5Similar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
24.3%
Noah Ruggles 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4876% → 79%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
23.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 4 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Raymond Vohasek) to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
23.6%
Rico Dowdle run for 5 yds to the SCaro 49Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
23.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Josh Vann for 5 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
23.8%
Rico Dowdle run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
24.0%
Tavien Feaster run for 8 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
24.0%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
21.1%
Tavien Feaster 34 Yd Run (Parker White Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3822% → 22%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
22.1%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
22.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antonio WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+4
21.7%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+24
21.7%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds , Bryan Edwards returns for 24 yds to the NCaro 45 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3679% → 78%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
21.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 6 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 4
OPP 30
-5
21.1%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-5
21.2%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+4
21.6%
Tavien Feaster run for 4 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
21.6%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+53
22.2%
Parker White 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:5923% → 23%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
23.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 15 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
23.9%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
24.1%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+2
24.2%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
24.4%
Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 3
OPP 32
-5
25.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 37Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+15
24.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 15 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
25.4%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the SCaro 22Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-8
25.5%
Sam Howell sacked by Aaron Sterling for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 30Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 18
OPP 30
0
24.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 18
OPP 30
+47
23.0%
Noah Ruggles 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Javon KinlawSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:3277% → 79%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
23.0%
Rico Dowdle run for 4 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
22.7%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+15
23.2%
Bentley, Jake pass incomplete to Vann, Josh, PENALTY UNC personal foul (Strowbridge, Jason) 15 yards to the SOCAROLINA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOCAROLINA.Similar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
22.3%
Rico Dowdle run for no gain to the SCaro 49Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
22.2%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+26
22.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 26 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
21.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 4 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
21.9%
Rico Dowdle run for 2 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-3
21.4%
Jake Bentley sacked by Chazz Surratt and Jeremiah Gemmel for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
21.1%
Parker White 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:3421% → 25%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
20.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 14 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
21.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
22.1%
Sam Howell run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 9
50
+26
22.3%
Michael Carter run for 26 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
23.4%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the SCaro 17 Sam Howell fumbled, forced by Jaycee Horn, recovered by NCaro Sam HowellSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+2
23.5%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the SCaro 15Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+5
22.7%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the SCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
23.7%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 8Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
23.8%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the SCaro 8Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
22.7%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the SCaro 7Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
25.2%
Noah Ruggles 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1178% → 78%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 7 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
21.7%
Tavien Feaster run for no gain to the SCaro 32Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
22.3%
Tavien Feaster run for 2 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+15
21.8%
Joseph Charlton punt for 59 yds for a 1ST down , Dazz Newsome returns for 15 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (R.J. Roderick) to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2224% → 23%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
24.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 5 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
25.4%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
24.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
23.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
21.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:5824% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
24.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
23.9%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:28
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-4
23.1%
Sam Howell sacked by Javon Kinlaw for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 16Similar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+56
22.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bryan Edwards at the UNC 38 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the SCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4478% → 77%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
22.5%
Rico Dowdle run for 17 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
21.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 5
50
0
21.0%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Shi SmithSimilar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 5
50
-4
21.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 46Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+12
23.5%
Joseph Charlton punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNC 37 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:2326% → 34%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
26.0%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+26
27.0%
Javonte Williams run for 26 yds to the SCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
28.7%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the SCaro 20Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-5
28.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Beau Corrales) to the SCaro 25Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+7
29.0%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the SCaro 18Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
27.8%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the SCaro 17Similar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+5
26.7%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the SCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
29.5%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 10Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+5
29.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 5 yds to the SCaro 5Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
28.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Carl TuckerSimilar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
34.1%
Noah Ruggles 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15TD
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:3272% → 84%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
28.5%
Tavien Feaster run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+3
27.4%
Tavien Feaster run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-5
27.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Sadarius Hutcherson) to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+15
29.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Kyle Markway for 15 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
26.2%
Tavien Feaster run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
26.3%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Shi SmithSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
15.9%
Kyle Markway 22 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Parker White Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:0218% → 20%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.1%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
17.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+25
16.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 25 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-12
19.6%
Sam Howell sacked by Jaycee Horn for a loss of 12 yards to the NCaro 42 Sam Howell fumbled, forced by Jaycee Horn, recovered by SCaro Javon Kinlaw , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1584% → 83%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
15.6%
Bentley, Jake pass incomplete, PENALTY SOCAROLINA holding 10 yards to the SOCAROLINA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 20
OWN 48
-5
15.9%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 43Similar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 25
OWN 43
+6
16.3%
Rico Dowdle run for 6 yds to the SCaro 49Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 19
OWN 49
-1
16.2%
Rico Dowdle run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 48Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 20
OWN 48
+14
16.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 14 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
17.0%
Joseph Charlton punt for 36 yds, downed at the NCaro 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
7 plays · 98 yds · 2:2016% → 44%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+20
16.3%
Antonio Williams run for 20 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
16.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
16.7%
Antonio Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+22
17.9%
Antonio Williams run for 22 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
18.9%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+7
20.4%
Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
44.1%
Dyami Brown 22 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Sam Howell Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4066% → 68%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
33.9%
Jake Bentley run for 9 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+7
32.2%
Tavien Feaster run for 7 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
31.4%
Tavien Feaster run for 2 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
31.5%
Tavien Feaster run for 3 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
29.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 4 yds to the SCaro 49Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
31.7%
Joseph Charlton punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
7 plays · 95 yds · 3:0935% → 73%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
35.2%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 3Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+8
34.4%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+31
33.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 31 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
37.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 23 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
42.6%
Javonte Williams run for 10 yds to the SCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
43.0%
Rontavius Groves run for 8 yds to the SCaro 17Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+17
72.6%
Beau Corrales 17 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2937% → 32%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.7%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Shi SmithSimilar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
63.0%
Rico Dowdle run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 23Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-6
66.2%
Jake Bentley sacked by Aaron Crawford for a loss of 6 yards to the SCaro 17Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
67.8%
Joseph Charlton punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:3574% → 80%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
73.6%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
74.0%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-12
75.0%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Marcus McKethan) to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+18
77.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 18 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
80.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 48 yds , Bryan Edwards returns for 4 yds to the SCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3529% → 34%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
70.9%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
71.3%
Jake Bentley run for 3 yds to the SCaro 26Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+15
73.7%
Bentley, Jake pass incomplete to Smith, Shi, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Hollins, DeAndre) 15 yards to the SOCAROLINA41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOCAROLINA.Similar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
68.8%
Jake Bentley run for 2 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
68.9%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-24
65.9%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted Myles Wolfolk return for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 34 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Shi Smith) to the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2884% → 86%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.0%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
87.1%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
87.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+38
86.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds , Bryan Edwards returns for 38 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 25INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:3621% → 21%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
78.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Josh Vann for 11 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
76.6%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Shi SmithSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
75.9%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Josh VannSimilar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+42
79.5%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted Myles Wolfolk return for 42 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2692% → 94%
Q4 1:37
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-2
92.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 47Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-3
94.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 14
50
-3
93.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
86.6%
Jake Bentley sacked by Chazz Surratt and Tomari Fox for a loss of 10 yards to the SCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:26
Beau Corrales 17 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Noah Ruggles Kick)
+29.6
TD · Q4 14:27
Dyami Brown 22 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Sam Howell Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+23.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com