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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreMIZ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:11 · Tucker McCann 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:58: Sean Chambers run for 75 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +13.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:21: Trey Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +25.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:29: Tyler Badie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +17.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:01: Cooper Rothe 20 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +11.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:19: Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 53 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +21.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 8MIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 15:00WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snapGo for it14.8%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.8%average punt
- Q1 9:04WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 34, down 7Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it16.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:46MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt83.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:19WYO 4th & 16 at WYO 35, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snapGo for it14.7%−0.715% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.4%average punt
- Q2 15:00MIZ 4th & 15 at MIZ 14, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snapGo for it83.8%−1.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.0%average punt
- Q2 9:09WYO 4th & 2 at MIZ 2, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 15.6% before the snapGo for it15.7%48% to convertField goalTheir call14.9%−0.794% to makePunt12.0%−3.6average punt
- Q2 7:54MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 32, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snapGo for it76.6%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.8%average punt
- Q2 2:11MIZ 4th & 5 at WYO 5, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snapGo for it65.9%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call66.0%92% to makePunt60.2%−5.8average punt
- Q3 15:00MIZ 4th & 1 at WYO 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.9%70% to convertField goal48.2%−4.632% to makePunt49.4%−3.5average punt
- Q3 4:21MIZ 4th & 5 at WYO 42, down 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 16.0% before the snapGo for it17.3%42% to convertField goal14.8%−2.530% to makePuntTheir call16.1%−1.2average punt
- Q4 15:00WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 35, up 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 90.2% before the snapGo for it91.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.0%−1.5average punt
- Q4 13:29WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 34, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 76.3% before the snapGo for it77.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.1%−1.6average punt
- Q4 11:20MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 3, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snapGo for it15.9%−1.927% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.9%average punt
- Q4 7:01WYO 4th & 3 at MIZ 3, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snapGo for it88.1%44% to convertField goalTheir call86.9%−1.293% to makePunt81.0%−7.1average punt
- Q4 3:36WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 42, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snapGo for it84.3%−3.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.4%average punt
- Q4 0:41MIZ 4th & 12 at WYO 26, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.1%23% to convertField goal8.8%−2.364% to makePunt5.2%−5.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 9:04MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.2%97% to makeGo for two83.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:19MIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.3%97% to makeGo for two84.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:15WYO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.7%97% to makeGo for two31.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:58WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.7%97% to makeGo for two40.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:21WYO Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.1%97% to makeGo for two82.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:29MIZ Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.5%97% to makeGo for two20.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:19MIZ Touchdown, down 7 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call15.4%−0.197% to makeGo for two15.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2TD13 plays · 65 yds · 4:3186% → 85%
WYODrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4TD11 plays · 74 yds · 4:2785% → 86%
Q1 7:46
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+13
15.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 13 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
15.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Kam Scott for 29 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
15.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 19 yds Johnathon Johnson fumbled, forced by Tyler Hall, recovered by Misso Johnathon Johnson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+10
15.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 10 yds to the Wyom 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 3:19
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-5
14.4%
WYOMING Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Wyom 35Similar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 16
OWN 35
+7
14.2%
Ryan Galovich punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 19 , Richaud Floyd returns for 7 yds to the Misso 42 MISSOURI Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 1:1886% → 85%
WYODrive 7FG12 plays · 53 yds · 5:3716% → 18%
MIZDrive 8FUMBLE TD5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1583% → 78%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 4 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
16.9%
WYOMING Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
21.8%
Kelly Bryant run for a loss of 5 yards Kelly Bryant fumbled, forced by Esaias Gandy, recovered by Wyom C.J. Coldon , return for 30 yds, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 7:54
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+14
22.7%
Tucker McCann punt for 43 yds , Austin Conway returns for 14 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10TD2 plays · 61 yds · 0:1424% → 32%
MIZDrive 11FG16 plays · 70 yds · 4:0470% → 73%
Q2 6:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
30.9%
Bryant, Kelly pass complete to Badie, Tyler for no gain to the MU28 (HALLIBURTON, A.), PENALTY WYO offside 5 yards to the MU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
29.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jalen Knox for 13 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+32
28.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 32 yds to the Wyom 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13FUMBLE11 plays · 66 yds · 1:4357% → 60%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
43.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tyler Badie for 9 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
41.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 7 yds to the Wyom 46Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+5
39.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 5 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+35
39.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Kam Scott for 35 yds to the Wyom 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+73
40.2%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the Wyom 6 Larry Rountree III fumbled, forced by Ben Wisdorf, recovered by Wyom Alijah Halliburton , return for 79 yds to the Wyom 0 MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul (Alijah Halliburton) to the Wyom 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14FG1 play · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15INT17 plays · 58 yds · 4:4653% → 45%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jalen Knox for 4 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
47.7%
Bryant, Kelly pass incomplete to Knox, Jalen, PENALTY WYO offside 5 yards to the MU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
46.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 7 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
44.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tyler Badie for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+32
42.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jalen Knox for 32 yds to the Wyom 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
42.7%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Jalen Knox, broken up by Logan WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
52.7%
Bryant, Kelly pass complete to Okwuegbunam, A. for 2 yards to the WYO0, clock 10:14, PENALTY MU pass interference 15 yards to the WYO17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
0
54.8%
Kelly Bryant pass intercepted, touchback. Cassh Maluia return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16TD12 plays · 80 yds · 5:4357% → 86%
Q3 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
57.1%
Sean Chambers pass incomplete to Austin Conway, broken up by Jarvis WareSimilar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+13
60.4%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Jackson Marcotte for 13 yds to the Misso 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+15
60.4%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Austin Conway for 15 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.4%
VALLADAY, X. rush for no gain to the MU1 (Garrett, Cale), PENALTY MU offside 0 yards to the MU1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
84.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 28 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
82.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 3 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-3
82.5%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Javaree Jackson and Josiah Hall for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5688% → 90%
MIZDrive 19TD4 plays · 29 yds · 1:1012% → 30%
WYODrive 20PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q4 11:20
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+6
81.8%
Tucker McCann punt for 44 yds , Austin Conway returns for 6 yds to the Misso 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22FG9 plays · 38 yds · 3:2483% → 94%
Q4 10:25
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+26
82.3%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 26 yds to the Misso 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:429% → 32%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tyler Badie for 6 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
89.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 16 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
67.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 53 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24PUNT12 plays · 17 yds · 2:4383% → 89%
Q4 3:36
3RD & 5
50
-10
90.4%
CHAMBERS, Sean rush for 3 yards to the MU47 (Garrett, Cale), PENALTY WYO holding 10 yards to the WYO40, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25DOWNS11 plays · 49 yds · 1:3813% → 11%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
86.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jalen Knox for 13 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
84.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 5 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
83.5%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Johnathon Johnson, broken up by Keyon BlankenbakerSimilar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+20
84.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 20 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
81.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 7 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+6
79.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tyler Badie for 6 yds to the Wyom 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-6
79.5%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Josiah Hall for a loss of 6 yards to the Wyom 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 26END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:21
Trey Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+25.8
TD · Q4 6:19
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 53 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
-21.9
TD · Q4 13:29
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
-17.3