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MSST

Mississippi State 38 at Louisiana 28

UL
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Caesars Superdome
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+3.2UL 45.9%Jordan Lawless 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 35 - HOME 35 · Q4 1:02
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:02 · Jordan Lawless 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Pregame prior−0.8Home team on offense−5.5Score differential−4.8Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:31: Nick Ralston 11 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Stevie Artigue Kick) — UL win probability +9.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:31: Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Lawless KICK) — MSST win probability +6.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:07: Tommy Stevens pass complete to Austin Williams for 12 yds for a TD, (Jordan Lawless KICK) — MSST win probability +8.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:21: Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 12 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down — UL win probability +35.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:45: Trey Ragas run for 17 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +5.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 7:35UL 4th & 1 at MSST 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:28MSST 4th & 7 at UL 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:16UL 4th & 3 at UL 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:03MSST 4th & 9 at UL 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:12UL 4th & 5 at MSST 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q4 15:00MSST 4th & 6 at UL 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−1.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:49UL 4th & 2 at UL 9, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:56MSST 4th & 7 at UL 39, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%−0.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 1:02MSST 4th & 12 at UL 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−11.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−36.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:27MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:17UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:18MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:31UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:31MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:07MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:3389% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
11.1%
Kylin Hill run for 20 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
11.1%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 5 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
11.1%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
11.1%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
11.1%
Tommy Stevens run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
11.7%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 31 yds for a TD, (Jordan Lawless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
11.9%
Levi Lewis pass intercepted Cameron Dantzler return for no gain to the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
11.8%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
11.8%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+6
11.8%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 6 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
11.8%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Michael Jacquet III for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 28 Tommy Stevens fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Chauncey Manac , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:3613% → 13%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
12.5%
Raymond Calais run for 26 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
12.7%
Raymond Calais run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
12.7%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
12.7%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
12.8%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Calif GossettSimilar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
12.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+7
12.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Brian Smith Jr. for 7 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 1
OPP 25
-23
13.3%
Levi Lewis run for a loss of 23 yards to the MisSt 48 Levi Lewis fumbled, recovered by MisSt Brian Cole IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
12.7%
Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+6
12.6%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
12.6%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
12.6%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
12.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+3
12.8%
Tommy Stevens run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
13.7%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Robert Hunt) to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+12
13.6%
Trey Ragas run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
14.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, broken up by Tyler WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
13.9%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
13.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 46 yds , Taury Dixon returns for no gain to the MisSt 15 Taury Dixon fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Paul BoudreauxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:0515% → 18%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
14.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+9
14.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 9 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
17.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 76 yds · 5:0783% → 81%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
16.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, delay of game (Tommy Stevens) to the MisSt 10Similar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+18
16.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 18 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
16.4%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+18
16.4%
Tommy Stevens run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Kris Moncrief) to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
15.9%
Kylin Hill run for 15 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
15.7%
Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+19
15.5%
Nick Gibson run for 19 yds to the LaLaf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
16.6%
Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
16.6%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
16.9%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Kris Moncrief for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q2 13:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
18.6%
Jordan Lawless 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
19.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 8 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+7
20.4%
Levi Lewis run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
20.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 12 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
21.0%
Levi Lewis sacked by TEAM for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 42 Levi Lewis fumbled, recovered by MisSt Erroll Thompson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 3:4582% → 85%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
17.9%
Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+12
17.4%
Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
17.4%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+14
17.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Dontea Jones for 14 yds to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
14.7%
Nick Gibson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jordan Lawless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:4117% → 29%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
16.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
17.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
17.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+11
17.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Raymond Calais for 11 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
18.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Raymond Calais for 5 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
17.9%
Trey Ragas run for 6 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
18.5%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+20
18.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 20 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
19.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the MisSt 11Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
28.9%
Nick Ralston 11 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Stevie Artigue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 3:5477% → 85%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
23.3%
Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
23.0%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
24.7%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 9 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+7
23.0%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+28
22.8%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Austin Williams for 28 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
21.2%
Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
21.2%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
21.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Austin Williams for 3 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+3
22.0%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 3 yds to the LaLaf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
21.2%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
14.9%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Lawless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:2020% → 16%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
20.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
20.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
20.5%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 5
OPP 47
-1
19.4%
N/A run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
15.8%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 10 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.6%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
18.8%
Trey Ragas run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
19.1%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 40 LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 21
OWN 25
-5
18.4%
LOUISIANA Penalty, substitution infraction (Shane Vallot) to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 26
OWN 20
0
18.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 26
OWN 20
+4
18.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 4 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 24
-3
17.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 7:5383% → 92%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 25
OWN 21
0
17.4%
Rhys Byrns punt for 44 yds , Malik Dear returns for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
10.8%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
10.1%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+10
10.4%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 10 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
10.0%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
10.0%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
10.0%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 9 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+8
9.8%
Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+18
9.8%
Kylin Hill run for 18 yds to the LaLaf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.2%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Lawless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16FUMBLE
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:0011% → 13%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
10.8%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Brian Smith Jr. LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+22
10.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 22 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
11.2%
Raymond Calais run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
11.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
50
0
12.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
50
+19
12.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 19 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
12.9%
Raymond Calais run for 12 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
13.1%
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds to the MisSt 12 Trey Ragas fumbled, forced by Marquiss Spencer, recovered by MisSt Cameron DantzlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:5391% → 93%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
9.1%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+19
9.1%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 19 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
8.9%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 7 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+11
8.4%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 11 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
8.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 25 yards to the LA22 (Pedescleaux, Ka), PENALTY MSSTATE holding (Dareuan Parker) 10 yards to the MSSTATE43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 20
OWN 43
0
8.6%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Cameron GardnerSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 20
OWN 43
0
8.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for no gain to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+14
8.8%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 14 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
7.2%
Tucker Day punt for 42 yds, downed at the LaLaf 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
9.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
9.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+7
9.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 7 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+40
9.2%
Rhys Byrns punt for 43 yds , Malik Dear returns for 40 yds to the LaLaf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
1.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Austin Williams for 12 yds for a TD, (Jordan Lawless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:0310% → 10%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
9.7%
Raymond Calais run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+19
10.0%
Raymond Calais run for 19 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
11.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 1 yd to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Korey Charles) to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
12.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, broken up by Tyler WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
11.7%
Levi Lewis run for 10 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
12.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 16 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
12.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
12.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.0%
Levi Lewis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.3%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
4.3%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
4.1%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 19 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
3.9%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
4.0%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell, broken up by Terik MillerSimilar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
4.1%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
4.4%
Tucker Day punt for 38 yds, downed at the LaLaf 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22TD
15 plays · 99 yds · 0:0021% → 60%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
20.5%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+19
20.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Trey Ragas for 19 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jamal BellSimilar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
20.7%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
20.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 7 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
21.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Raymond Calais for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+17
20.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 17 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
24.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+10
24.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 10 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
25.9%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jamal BellSimilar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
25.7%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+5
23.6%
Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Johnson, Neal, PENALTY MSSTATE offside defense 5 yards to the MSSTATE41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
25.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+12
24.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 12 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
59.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 12 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23FG
13 plays · 23 yds · 1:4335% → 54%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
64.9%
Trey Ragas run for 17 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
42.5%
Kylin Hill run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
40.7%
Tommy Stevens run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
40.4%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
36.7%
Tommy Stevens run for no gain to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+2
39.0%
Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 7
OPP 14
-5
42.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+37
45.9%
Jordan Lawless 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24END OF HALF
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0055% → 61%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+32
54.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 32 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
65.0%
Levi Lewis run for no gain to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
64.8%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
61.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Brian Smith Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-61.2
TD · Q4 7:21
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 12 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down
+35.2
TD · Q2 4:31
Nick Ralston 11 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Stevie Artigue Kick)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com