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TOL

Toledo 24 at Kentucky 38

UK
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+3.7UK 71.8%Chance Poore 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 17 · Q3 11:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:33 · Chance Poore 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior+11.6Home team on offense+4.4Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:31: Mitchell Guadagni run for 21 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +6.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:01: Asim Rose run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK) — UK win probability +9.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:33: Chance Poore 46 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +3.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:17: Terry Wilson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 32 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK) — UK win probability +9.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:26: Kavosiey Smoke run for 40 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK) — UK win probability +9.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:09UK 4th & 15 at UK 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:38TOL 4th & 9 at UK 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:37UK 4th & 1 at UK 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:25UK 4th & 12 at UK 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:36TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:01TOL 4th & 6 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:21UK 4th & 4 at TOL 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:53UK 4th & 1 at UK 18, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:33UK 4th & 4 at TOL 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:27TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:17TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 33, down 10
    Close callPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:07TOL 4th & 11 at UK 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:07UK 4th & 15 at UK 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 37, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:36UK 4th & 3 at UK 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:45TOL 4th & 7 at UK 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:32TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:15TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:31TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:01UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:17UK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:26UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:32UK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:02TOL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:4525% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
75.4%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
75.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 1 yd to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+39
75.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 39 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
75.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Jamari BrownSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
75.4%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+10
75.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Nick Kovacs for 10 yds to the Kent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.8%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
74.0%
Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-4
74.1%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 30Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-5
73.9%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
73.9%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
73.9%
Max Duffy punt for 55 yds, downed at the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
73.2%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 2 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
73.2%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+19
73.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 19 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
72.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Danzel McKinley-Lewis) to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+7
73.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 7 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
72.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 10 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
72.8%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-2
72.8%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
72.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
73.1%
Bailey Flint punt for 41 yds, downed at the Kent 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4TD
17 plays · 97 yds · 6:4271% → 74%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
70.8%
Asim Rose run for 9 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 1
OWN 12
-2
70.8%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 10Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+14
70.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 14 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
70.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 6 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
71.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 5 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
71.0%
Asim Rose run for 7 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
71.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 2 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
71.4%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
71.1%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
71.5%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+8
71.0%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 7
50
+21
71.6%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 21 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
72.0%
Terry Wilson run for 7 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+15
72.0%
[SHOT], Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Jordan Hendy) 15 yards to the TOLEDO7, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
72.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, offside defense (4 Yards) to the Toled 3Similar
Q1 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
72.0%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.6%
Justin Rigg 0 Yd fumble recovery (Chance Poore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2429% → 38%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+28
70.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 28 yds to the KENTUCKY 44 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
69.7%
[SHOT], M. Guadagni pass incomplete to Devin Maddox, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal formation 5 yards to the UK49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 15
OPP 49
-2
70.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 17
OWN 49
+9
70.6%
Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+17
69.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 17 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
68.7%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+21
62.5%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 21 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
64.7%
Asim Rose run for 6 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-8
65.5%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 19 Terry Wilson fumbled, recovered by KentSimilar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+3
63.9%
Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 12
OWN 22
+1
63.7%
Max Duffy punt for 56 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 1 yd to the Toled 23 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Toled 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
63.2%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-5
63.1%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by T.J. Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 11Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 12
OWN 11
-5
63.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Bryce Mitchell) to the Toled 6Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 17
OWN 6
+1
64.2%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 7Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 16
OWN 7
0
64.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Lynn Bowden Jr. at the Kent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 0:5962% → 73%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
62.0%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Keaton Upshaw) to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+29
60.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 29 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
64.2%
Asim Rose run for 21 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
73.4%
Asim Rose run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
67.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
67.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+22
68.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 22 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
65.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+7
66.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 6
50
0
65.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Brandin EcholsSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 6
50
0
67.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 26 yds, downed at the Kent 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
70.0%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 21 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
71.8%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 8 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-2
72.5%
Kavosiey Smoke run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
71.9%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
70.6%
Max Duffy punt for 46 yds, downed at the Toled 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
66.7%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+9
66.8%
Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
65.8%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
67.4%
Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+4
67.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 4 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+2
66.4%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
65.7%
Max Duffy punt for 53 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for no gain to the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
63.3%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 34 Bryant Koback fumbled, forced by Joshua Paschal, recovered by Kent Yusuf CorkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2871% → 72%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
71.0%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-3
70.9%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+9
68.1%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 9 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
71.8%
Chance Poore 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
69.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (Mitchell Guadagni) to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+5
70.1%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-10
70.1%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Joshua Paschal for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 16Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 20
OWN 16
+11
71.4%
Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+6
72.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 46 yds , Josh Ali returns for 6 yds to the Kent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:2372% → 85%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
71.6%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+4
71.5%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+15
72.0%
[SHOT], Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Chris Mcdonald) 15 yards to the TOLEDO47, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
74.1%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 17 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
74.9%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+32
84.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 32 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.8%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
82.8%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
83.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Lynn Bowden Jr. at the Kent 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:0084% → 85%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+40
83.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 40 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
85.2%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Justin RiggSimilar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
85.1%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 2 yds Lynn Bowden Jr. fumbled, forced by Saeed Holt, recovered by Toled Nate GivhanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:5818% → 22%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
82.2%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 19 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
80.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, targeting (Chris Oats) to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
79.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
79.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 7 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-8
80.6%
Carter Bradley sacked by DeAndre Square and Jamar Watson for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 29Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+46
78.3%
Evan Davis 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.1%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
81.5%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
81.3%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-2
81.1%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 32Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-15
80.0%
[SHOT], Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey for 28 yards to the TOLEDO40 (Kahlil Robinson), PENALTY UK illegal use of hands (Logan Stenberg) 15 yards to the UK17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 28
OWN 17
+13
79.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 13 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
78.8%
Max Duffy punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
79.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 12 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
79.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
79.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Nick Kovacs for 8 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
78.1%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+58
80.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 58 yds , Lynn Bowden Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
85.2%
Asim Rose run for 6 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+3
85.3%
Asim Rose run for 3 yds to the Kent 13Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 1
OWN 13
-2
84.7%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 11Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 3
OWN 11
+5
83.6%
Max Duffy punt for 61 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 5 yds to the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
81.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
50
+3
79.0%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
79.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Brandin EcholsSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
79.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
82.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, downed at the Kent 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 1:5186% → 96%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
86.2%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
86.0%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+17
85.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 17 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.7%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.5%
Terry Wilson run for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+30
86.1%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 30 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
95.9%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 40 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.4%
Carter Bradley run for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
95.1%
Carter Bradley pass intercepted DeAndre Square return for 3 yds to the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:0997% → 100%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
96.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 12 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+4
97.1%
Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
97.1%
[SHOT], Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Justin Rigg, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Kahlil Robinson) 6 yards to the TOLEDO2, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.1%
Asim Rose run for no gain to the Toled 2Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 2 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.4%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.4%
Carter Bradley sacked by Calvin Taylor Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+1
99.5%
Carter Bradley run for 1 yd to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 28FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
99.6%
Terry Wilson sacked by Terrance Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+6
99.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Christopher Rodriguez Jr. for 6 yds Christopher Rodriguez Jr. fumbled, forced by Daniel Bolden, recovered by Toled Dyontae Johnson , return for 3 yds to the Kent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 29TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:221% → 3%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.5%
Ronnie Jones run for 9 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
99.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Brandin EcholsSimilar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+15
99.4%
Ronnie Jones run for 15 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
99.4%
[SHOT], Carter Bradley sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UK22 (Jamin Davis), PENALTY UK face mask (Jamin Davis) 7 yards to the UK7, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.4%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Drew Rosi, broken up by Jamari BrownSimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.1%
Carter Bradley run for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
98.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
98.5%
Team run for no gain to the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:17
Terry Wilson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 32 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q4 8:26
Kavosiey Smoke run for 40 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q2 6:01
Asim Rose run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com