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ORE

Oregon 21 at Auburn 27

AUB
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+67AUB 96.8%Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williamsfor 26 yds for a TD, (Anders CarlsonKICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 27 · Q4 0:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:09 · Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 187Home team on offense+27.2Score differential+2.2Garbage-time factor+16.7Pregame prior+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:11: Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 20 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +3.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:23: Darrian Felix run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK) — ORE win probability +14.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:20: Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 11 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +14.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:48: Joey Gatewood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +31.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:09: Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +67.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 9 of 10ORE made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:13ORE 4th & 1 at AUB 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:34AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:42ORE 4th & 2 at AUB 2, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:17AUB 4th & 9 at ORE 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:16ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:31AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:41AUB 4th & 7 at ORE 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:05ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 20, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:52ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−1.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:08AUB 4th & 21 at ORE 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−2.4
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:51AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:02AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 36, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:31ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 21, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−2.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:48ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 48, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:15AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 38, down 8
    Close callPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:44ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:30ORE 4th & 1 at AUB 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    46.7%−12.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−12.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:31AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:14ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−3.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:21AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.1%−8.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:13ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:11ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:23ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:20AUB Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:48AUB Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:09AUB Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:3145% → 46%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
55.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 9 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+2
55.1%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
55.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Bryan AddisonSimilar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
55.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 8 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
55.1%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
50
0
55.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 10
50
+47
55.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 47 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
55.0%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Aub 2Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
54.9%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 4Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.6%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3154% → 53%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
53.9%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Prince Tega Wanogho) to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
53.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
53.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+29
52.9%
Arryn Siposs punt for 46 yds , Jevon Holland returns for 29 yds to the Aub 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:4648% → 49%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
52.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 6 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+8
52.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 8 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
51.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Bryan AddisonSimilar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
51.8%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+11
51.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 11 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
51.4%
Travis Dye run for 13 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
51.3%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 4Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
51.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the Aub 2Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
50.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Bryan AddisonSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
51.3%
Camden Lewis 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4FG
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:1653% → 56%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+38
53.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Will Hastings for 38 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
54.0%
Bo Nix run for 19 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
54.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
54.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
53.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to JaTarvious WhitlowSimilar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
55.5%
Anders Carlson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5747% → 51%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+52
53.1%
CJ Verdell run for 37 yds to the AUBURN 38 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Daniel Thomas) to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
52.8%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
49.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 20 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6INT
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:2649% → 49%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
49.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 8 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
49.3%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
49.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 8 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
49.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+7
49.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
49.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
49.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Oregn 43Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
49.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
48.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Harold Joiner for 28 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
49.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+2
48.8%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Thomas Graham Jr. return for 2 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:1254% → 55%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
46.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to CJ VerdellSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+14
46.4%
CJ Verdell run for 14 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
45.6%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+1
45.0%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
44.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for no gain to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 3
OWN 33
-5
45.2%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Daewood Davis) to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+3
45.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 52 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 3 yds to the Aub 31 AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Aub 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:3844% → 42%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
44.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 17Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+21
44.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sal Cannella for 21 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
44.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
43.1%
Matthew Hill run for 7 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-5
43.2%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Marquel Harrell) to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
42.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+81
41.5%
Arryn Siposs punt for 49 yds , Jevon Holland returns for 81 yds to the Aub 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 0
OPP 9
+83
38.6%
Justin Herbert run for a loss of 5 yards to the Auburn 14, Justin Herbert fumbled, recovered by Aub Big Kat Bryant , return for 83 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FG
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2545% → 44%
Q2 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
45.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 4Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
44.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 7 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Aub Bo NixSimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
42.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Jay Jay WilsonSimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
44.0%
Anders Carlson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:2758% → 57%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.1%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-13
42.0%
Herbert, Justin rush for 1 yard to the OREGON27, PENALTY OREGON personal foul (Johnson III, Johnny) 13 yards to the OREGON13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+13
42.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 13 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-6
41.7%
Justin Herbert sacked by Jeremiah Dinson for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
42.6%
Blake Maimone punt for 54 yds , Christian Tutt returns for no gain to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:2440% → 42%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
40.4%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Hastings, Will, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Pickett, Nick) 15 yards to the AUBURN41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
41.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
40.9%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Cannella, Sal, PENALTY OREGON offside (Faoliu, Austin) 5 yards to the AUBURN46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
42.4%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Jevon Holland return for 2 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3560% → 59%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.7%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
38.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Travis DyeSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
39.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Josh DelgadoSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+41
41.0%
Blake Maimone punt for 53 yds for a 1ST down , Christian Tutt returns for 41 yds to the AUBURN 30 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Blake Maimone) to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 2 yds · 0:3945% → 38%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
44.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to JaTarvious WhitlowSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
44.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+13
42.5%
Bo Nix run for 13 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-8
44.7%
Bo Nix sacked by Sampson Niu for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 18
OPP 21
-3
42.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 21
OPP 24
0
39.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 21
OPP 24
+42
37.8%
Anders Carlson 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
36.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:0939% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
38.8%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
38.7%
Shaun Shivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 19Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
38.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the Aub 19Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+7
36.9%
Bo Nix run for 7 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+21
35.6%
Arryn Siposs punt for 48 yds , Jevon Holland returns for 21 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:2366% → 82%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
34.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Josh DelgadoSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+20
33.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 20 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
32.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 1 yd to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+6
32.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 6 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+5
33.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 5 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
32.2%
Darrian Felix run for 1 yd to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+1
31.8%
Justin Herbert run for 1 yd to the Aub 19Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+13
32.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 13 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
18.0%
Darrian Felix run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:1723% → 21%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
23.1%
Kam Martin run for 7 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
23.5%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.0%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
21.8%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
21.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
20.7%
Arryn Siposs punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2682% → 82%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-9
18.4%
Justin Herbert sacked by Zakoby McClain for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 11 OREGON Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Justin Herbert) to the Oregn 11Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+3
18.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+7
18.5%
Justin Herbert run for 7 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+9
18.4%
Blake Maimone punt for 46 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 9 yds to the Aub 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:0622% → 36%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
22.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 5 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
21.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 6 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+36
21.3%
Eli Stove run for 36 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
36.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 11 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:2372% → 73%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
27.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Josh Delgado for 9 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
26.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 3 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
26.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 3 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+3
26.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 3 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
27.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2229% → 27%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
29.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 8 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
31.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
29.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+1
32.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-1
30.8%
Shaun Shivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
27.4%
Arryn Siposs punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2374% → 76%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
25.7%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
23.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Spencer WebbSimilar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+2
24.5%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+11
24.1%
Blake Maimone punt for 56 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 11 yds to the Aub 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:4726% → 60%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
25.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+21
24.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sal Cannella for 21 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
28.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+31
29.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 31 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
31.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Matthew Hill for 1 yd to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+8
31.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 8 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+7
28.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.4%
Joey Gatewood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:1253% → 59%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
45.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 8 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
44.9%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Dallas Warmack) to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+14
44.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 14 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
40.0%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
50
0
39.2%
Justin Herbert run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
50
+5
38.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 5 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+4
37.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-1
40.7%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5356% → 49%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
56.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the Aub 42Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
53.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
51.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
49.2%
Arryn Siposs punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:1258% → 60%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
42.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 4 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+6
41.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 6 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
39.0%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-7
37.4%
Justin Herbert sacked by Tyrone Truesdell and Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+7
40.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 7 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
40.0%
Blake Maimone punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 28TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 1:5653% → 97%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
52.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 5 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
50.1%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
49.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Sal CannellaSimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+3
44.7%
Bo Nix run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
50
0
46.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
50
+9
43.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Spencer Nigh for 9 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
39.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
39.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
39.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+13
29.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 13 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
96.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
82.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:09
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+67
TD · Q4 9:48
Joey Gatewood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+31.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com