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DUKE

Duke 3 at Alabama 42

ALA
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:36 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:02: Miller Forristall 27 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +1.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:13: Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:34: Major Tennison 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:18: Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen Waddle, broken up by Leonard Johnson — ALA win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:32: DeVonta Smith 8 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:57ALA 4th & 13 at ALA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:49DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:28DUKE 4th & 1 at ALA 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:25ALA 4th & 3 at DUKE 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:51DUKE 4th & 10 at ALA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:24DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:18DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:22ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:11DUKE 4th & 3 at ALA 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.1
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:11DUKE 4th & 3 at ALA 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:56DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 30, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:59ALA 4th & 3 at DUKE 42, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:16ALA 4th & 2 at DUKE 30, up 32
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:15DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 36, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:32ALA 4th & 1 at DUKE 40, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 10:02ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:13ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:34ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:32ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:36ALA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:51ALA Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4998% → 98%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
98.4%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+2
98.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerome Ford for 2 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-6
98.2%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Koby Quansah for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 19Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 13
OWN 19
+3
98.2%
Will Reichard punt for 39 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 3 yds to the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:012% → 2%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
98.2%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+4
98.1%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
98.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+35
98.1%
Austin Parker punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the ALABAMA 12 DUKE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Alab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:1898% → 98%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
98.1%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+3
98.0%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Alab 26 Jerome Ford fumbled, forced by Edgar Cerenord, recovered by Duke Tre HornbuckleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:432% → 2%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
97.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
97.9%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+5
97.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
97.7%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
97.7%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun, broken up by Patrick Surtain IISimilar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+7
97.7%
Deon Jackson run for 7 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 1
OPP 7
0
97.6%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Alab 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5MISSED FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:5798% → 97%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
97.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 10 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
97.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-5
97.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 12Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 15
OWN 12
-6
97.5%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass complete to Waddle, Jaylen for 30 yards to the ALABAMA42, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Owens, Chris) 6 yards to the ALABAMA6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 21
OWN 6
+16
97.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 16 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+11
97.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 11 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
97.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 14 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
97.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 5 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
97.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+10
97.1%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 10 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
97.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to John Metchie for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+2
97.0%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
96.8%
Will Reichard 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:263% → 4%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
96.7%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+16
96.5%
Brittain Brown run for 16 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
96.3%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Alab 47Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
96.1%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-5
96.0%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Jacob Monk) to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
96.0%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott BraceySimilar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
96.1%
Austin Parker punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:4496% → 96%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
96.2%
Jerome Ford run for 7 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
96.2%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
96.0%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
96.0%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass complete to Harris, Najee for 54 yards to the DUKE15, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Neal, Evan) 10 yards to the ALABAMA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+8
95.9%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+9
95.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
95.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 4 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
95.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
95.7%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+4
95.5%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
95.4%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+15
95.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 15 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
96.3%
Miller Forristall 27 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:344% → 4%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
95.9%
Quentin Harris sacked by Terrell Lewis for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
95.9%
Austin Parker punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:5896% → 97%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+39
95.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 39 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
96.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 9 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 1
OPP 28
0
95.9%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+1
95.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
95.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 24 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:494% → 4%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.5%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
96.4%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
96.4%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
96.4%
Austin Parker punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4697% → 96%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
96.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 9 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
96.7%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-2
96.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
96.3%
Will Reichard punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 1:024% → 4%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
96.3%
Quentin Harris run for 8 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+37
96.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 37 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
95.7%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+15
96.0%
Harris, Quentin pass incomplete to Young, Aaron, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Jobe, Josh) 15 yards to the ALABAMA19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
95.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 3 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
95.8%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
96.4%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+30
95.8%
AJ Reed 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:495% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.3%
DUKE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
95.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 4 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+20
95.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 20 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
95.0%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+10
94.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 10 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
94.4%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
94.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+5
94.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 5 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+2
94.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 2 yds to the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:2895% → 98%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
95.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 8 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
95.3%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
95.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Miller Forristall for 6 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+19
95.2%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Personal Foul (Edgar Cerenord) to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
95.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+18
95.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 18 yds to the Duke 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
95.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 10 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.1%
Robinson Jr., Brian rush for loss of 4 yards to the DUKE5, PENALTY DUKE 12 men on the field 0 yards to the DUKE1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
Major Tennison 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Brittain Brown for 3 yds Brittain Brown fumbled, forced by Patrick Surtain II, recovered by Alab Trevon DiggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:4698% → 99%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
98.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen Waddle, broken up by Leonard JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+15
98.1%
Najee Harris run for 15 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
98.1%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Trevon McSwain) to the Duke 8Similar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 5
OPP 8
+8
99.4%
DeVonta Smith 8 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron Young, broken up by Josh JobeSimilar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
99.2%
Jackson, Deon rush for 2 yards to the DUKE27, PENALTY DUKE personal foul (Monk, Jacob) 12 yards to the DUKE13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+12
99.0%
Deon Jackson run for 12 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.2%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+60
99.2%
Austin Parker punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the ALABAMA 19 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Christopher Allen) to the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 4:13100% → 100%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 10Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+14
99.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 14 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
99.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+21
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 21 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 6 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
99.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+21
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 21 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Jerry Jeudy 21 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:330% → 0%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Harris, Quentin pass incomplete to Young, Aaron, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Jobe, Josh) 15 yards to the DUKE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21MISSED FG
15 plays · 44 yds · 5:56100% → 100%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 14 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 9 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Major Tennison for 8 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
99.9%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Mac Jones run for no gain to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
DUKE Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 5 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+4
99.9%
Mac Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+9
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerome Ford for 9 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+48
99.9%
Will Reichard 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
100.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 1 yd to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Austin Parker punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+1
99.9%
Keilan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Keilan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
100.0%
Jerome Ford run for 37 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24INT
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:030% → 0%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
100.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 8 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+6
100.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 6 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+15
100.0%
Harris, Quentin pass incomplete to Philyaw-Johnson, Damond, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Carter, Scooby) 15 yards to the DUKE49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
100.0%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 9
50
+7
100.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
100.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Quentin Harris pass intercepted, touchback. Jordan Battle return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:34
Major Tennison 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Will Reichard Kick)
+3
TD · Q3 7:32
DeVonta Smith 8 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Will Reichard Kick)
+1.3
TD · Q2 5:13
Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com