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STAN

Stanford 23 at California 13

CAL
2018 · Week 14 · Dec 1, 2018 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.5CAL 7.6%Jet Toner 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 16 - HOME 6 · Q4 3:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:43 · Jet Toner 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Home team on offense−32.3Garbage-time factor−12.8Score differential−11.6Pregame prior−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:37: K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 46 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +3.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:58: Greg Thomas 24 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +3.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:01: Jet Toner 19 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +6.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:27: Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +6.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:10: Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 11 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +3.7 pts (now 5%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 11STAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:15STAN 4th & 5 at CAL 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:15CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:37CAL 4th & 5 at STAN 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:58CAL 4th & 1 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.9%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:14CAL 4th & 4 at STAN 23, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:14STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:58CAL 4th & 5 at STAN 7, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:51STAN 4th & 13 at STAN 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 8 at STAN 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:39STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:34CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:12STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:30CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:30STAN 4th & 17 at STAN 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−4.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:50CAL 4th & 6 at STAN 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−12.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:43STAN 4th & 1 at CAL 3, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    63% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%−3.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−11.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:37CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.4%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:27CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 45, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:37STAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 2:27STAN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:10CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4557% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
42.7%
Bryce Love run for 13 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
42.7%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 25Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+3
42.7%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+8
42.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 8 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
42.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 4 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
42.7%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+22
42.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 22 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
42.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Bryce Love for 15 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
42.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 10 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
42.7%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Cal 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
42.7%
K.J. Costello run for 4 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
42.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
43.7%
Jet Toner 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.8%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
44.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 11 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
44.3%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
44.0%
Chase Garbers sacked by Michael Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
43.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah Hawkins, broken up by Kendall WilliamsonSimilar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+21
43.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 54 yds , Michael Wilson returns for 21 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 2:1256% → 60%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
44.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+17
44.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 17 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
43.5%
Bryce Love run for 8 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+46
40.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 46 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
41.2%
Jeremiah Hawkins run for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+16
41.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 16 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
41.2%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
41.5%
Chase Garbers run for 10 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
41.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Maurice WaysSimilar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
41.7%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
41.9%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
41.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:3360% → 60%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
39.8%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+4
39.8%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
40.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
39.4%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
39.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by Chris PalmerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
39.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+10
40.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 43 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 10 yds to the Cal 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:4439% → 41%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
38.6%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
38.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 1
50
0
39.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 1
50
+3
38.3%
Malik McMorris run for 3 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
39.2%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+8
39.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 8 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+9
39.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Malik McMorris for 9 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
40.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 5 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
40.0%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Stanf 23Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
39.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
40.9%
Greg Thomas 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.3%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 26Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
39.5%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
39.8%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 23Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
40.3%
Trevor Speights run for 4 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
40.7%
Jake Bailey punt for 45 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for no gain to the Cal 27 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Elijah Hicks) to the Cal 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8FG
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3938% → 44%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
38.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
38.0%
Chase Garbers run for 8 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+62
37.9%
Patrick Laird run for 62 yds to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
41.7%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Stanf 12Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
41.7%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
40.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q2 4:58
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
44.3%
Greg Thomas 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
42.5%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 18Similar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 15
OWN 18
0
42.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Michael Wilson, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+2
42.9%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 13
OWN 20
0
43.9%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 20Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 13
OWN 20
0
44.7%
Jake Bailey punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3044% → 46%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
43.9%
Chase Garbers sacked by Bobby Okereke and Gabe Reid for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+3
42.8%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+14
42.1%
Chase Garbers run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
50
+6
46.1%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+4
45.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Malik McMorris for 4 yds Malik McMorris fumbled, forced by Bobby Okereke, recovered by Stanf Sean Barton , return for 4 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 1:2162% → 69%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
37.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Connor WedingtonSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
38.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Trevor SpeightsSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+15
39.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 15 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
36.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trevor Speights for 8 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 2
OPP 31
-1
35.5%
K.J. Costello sacked by Lone Toailoa for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+31
37.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 31 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
37.7%
STANFORD Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 6Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
31.0%
Jet Toner 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.7%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.8%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
36.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
38.9%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+2
38.3%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
37.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
35.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 31 yds, downed at the Stanf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
33.8%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+5
33.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 5 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
33.3%
K.J. Costello run for 5 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
32.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby Parkinson, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
33.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+4
34.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Bryce Love for 4 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
34.7%
Jake Bailey punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
34.8%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
35.0%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
36.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Paulson AdeboSimilar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
34.0%
Steven Coutts punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
31.0%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+11
30.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 11 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
29.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 4
50
-9
28.8%
K.J. Costello sacked by Tevin Paul for a loss of 9 yards to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+7
31.4%
Dorian Maddox run for 7 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
31.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
32.4%
Patrick Laird run for 8 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
34.3%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
33.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Paulson AdeboSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
32.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 2 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+4
32.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 4 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
31.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 41 yds , Michael Wilson returns for no gain to the Stanf 23 Michael Wilson fumbled, recovered by Stanf Michael WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
30.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 20Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+3
30.6%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-7
31.1%
K.J. Costello sacked by Alex Funches for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 16 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 17
OWN 16
0
32.4%
Jake Bailey punt for 84 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19INT
6 plays · 46 yds · 0:0129% → 36%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
29.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 5 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
29.9%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+25
28.9%
Chase Garbers run for 10 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
33.9%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+11
34.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 11 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
35.8%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted, touchback. Paulson Adebo return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
24.8%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Stanf 23 Bryce Love fumbled, forced by Jordan Kunaszyk, recovered by Cal Siulagisipai FuimaonoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5935% → 30%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
34.9%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
34.9%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Stanf 19Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
32.7%
Chase Garbers run for no gain to the Stanf 19Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
29.7%
Greg Thomas 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22FG
17 plays · 77 yds · 7:0776% → 92%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
23.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 9 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
22.4%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
22.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 5 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-1
22.4%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+15
23.2%
Costello, K.J. pass incomplete to Arcega-Whiteside, JJ, PENALTY CAL roughing passer (Paul, Tevin) 15 yards to the STAN49, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
20.7%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+24
20.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 24 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
19.5%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+5
19.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+4
20.3%
K.J. Costello run for 4 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
19.5%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Cal 11Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-2
10.4%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 13Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+10
11.0%
Bryce Love run for 10 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+21
7.6%
Jet Toner 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
6.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
6.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+9
6.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 9 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+5
7.2%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+43
7.7%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted Paulson Adebo return for 43 yds to the Cal 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 2:172% → 5%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
2.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 15 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
2.3%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
2.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 5 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
2.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Maurice WaysSimilar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+12
2.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 12 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
2.4%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Ryan Gibson) to the Stanf 48Similar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+13
2.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 13 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
2.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+6
2.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 6 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
2.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 4 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-4
2.8%
Chase Garbers sacked by Gabe Reid for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+12
1.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Ray Hudson for 12 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
1.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 6 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
4.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 11 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:01
Jet Toner 19 yd FG GOOD
-6.7
TD · Q4 2:27
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)
-6.1
FG · Q2 4:58
Greg Thomas 24 yd FG GOOD
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com