2018 · Week 14 · Dec 1, 2018 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:21 · Joseph Charlton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Knight at the Akron 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 3:59: Nick Gasser 45 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +1.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q2 8:09: TEAM run for a loss of 24 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by SCaro Deebo Samuel for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:33: Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 5 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:33: Deltron Sands run for 6 yds to the Akron 31 — AKR win probability +1.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Will Tommie kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — SC win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7AKR made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 15:00SC 4th & 9 at AKR 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it96.0%−<0.132% to convertField goal95.9%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
- Q1 11:38AKR 4th & 18 at AKR 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q1 3:59AKR 4th & 11 at SC 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call5.6%60% to makePunt5.2%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:19AKR 4th & 11 at SC 35, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.8%−<0.127% to convertField goalTheir call5.9%45% to makePunt5.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00SC 4th & 15 at AKR 42, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snapGo for it93.9%−0.217% to convertField goal94.0%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call94.1%average punt
- Q2 8:09AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 24, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.3%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 8:09AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 47, down 18Close callPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 15:00AKR 4th & 16 at AKR 19, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q3 12:56SC 4th & 14 at SC 45, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q3 12:04AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 20, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q3 10:57AKR 4th & 10 at SC 25, down 25Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%−0.128% to convertField goal1.3%66% to makePunt0.3%−1.0average punt
- Q3 5:17AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 19, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00SC 4th & 1 at AKR 18, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%71% to convertField goal99.3%−0.279% to makePunt98.7%−0.8average punt
- Q4 14:25AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 25, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q4 12:53SC 4th & 9 at SC 38, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 11:54AKR 4th & 1 at SC 44, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%70% to convertField goal0.3%−0.327% to makePunt0.4%−0.2average punt
- Q4 10:22SC 4th & 19 at AKR 47, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 8:15AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 18, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 5:21SC 4th & 4 at SC 39, up 25Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:29SC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:01SC Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:33SC Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
97.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 3 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+10
97.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 10 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
97.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for no gain to the Akron 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
97.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 14Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 11
OWN 14
-7
97.2%
Kato Nelson sacked by Kingsley Enagbare for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 7Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 18
OWN 7
+21
97.2%
Nick Gasser punt for 42 yds , Bryan Edwards returns for 21 yds to the Akron 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3TD3 plays · 28 yds · 0:3897% → 97%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
97.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 15 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4FG13 plays · 47 yds · 5:303% → 4%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
97.1%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 13 yds to the Akron 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+13
97.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 13 yds to the SCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-3
97.0%
Kato Nelson sacked by Brad Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
97.0%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius Smith, broken up by Rashad FentonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5TD4 plays · 72 yds · 0:5896% → 96%
AKRDrive 6MISSED FG10 plays · 47 yds · 2:424% → 4%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
96.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Daishawn Brimage for 17 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
96.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 17 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
96.2%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jonah Morris, broken up by Javon KinlawSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 23 yds · 0:1996% → 96%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.2%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan Edwards, broken up by Brock BoxenSimilar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+13
96.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 13 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
96.3%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan Edwards, QB hurry by DAVIS, Jamal, PENALTY AKRON pass interference (BROWN, Kyron) 15 yards to the AKRON37, 1ST DOWN SC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-5
96.4%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Deebo Samuel, PENALTY SC false start 5 yards to the AKRON37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
96.3%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Kiel Pollard, broken up by Alvin DavisSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 37
-5
96.1%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Akron 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8FUMBLE3 plays · 30 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
96.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 13 yds to the Akron 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+9
96.1%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Daishawn Brimage for 15 yds Daishawn Brimage fumbled, forced by R.J. Roderick, recovered by SCaro Sherrod Greene , return for 9 yds to the Akron 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9INT4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
96.3%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted Denzel Butler return for 2 yds to the Akron 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10FUMBLE TD6 plays · -2 yds · 2:454% → 3%
Q2 10:54
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+13
95.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 13 yds to the Akron 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
95.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Deltron Sands for 1 yd to the Akron 24Similar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 24 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by SCaro Deebo Samuel for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to M.J. McGriff for 4 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
96.8%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to STEWART, Nate (Rashad Fenton), PENALTY SC pass interference (Rashad Fenton) 11 yards to the AKRON40, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
96.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 39Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
96.8%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett, broken up by Keisean NixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12TD11 plays · 90 yds · 4:0097% → 98%
Q2 5:33
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+19
96.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jacob August for 19 yds to the SCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+27
97.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 27 yds to the Akron 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
97.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 8 yards to the AKRON4 (LAKO, John), PENALTY AKRON substitution infraction 5 yards to the AKRON7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
98.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 5 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13END OF HALF7 plays · 33 yds · 0:493% → 3%
Q2 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+16
96.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 16 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
98.5%
Kato Nelson sacked by Kobe Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+7
98.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jeremiah Knight for 7 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
98.6%
Kato Nelson sacked by Javon Kinlaw for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 12:56
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-10
99.2%
Jake Bentley sacked by Jamal Davis II for a loss of 10 yards to the SOCAROLINA 45 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, intentional grounding (Jake Bentley) to the SCaro 45Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Joseph Charlton punt for 40 yds , Jeremiah Knight returns for no gain to the Akron 18 Jeremiah Knight fumbled, recovered by Akron Jeremiah KnightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 12:04
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
98.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jeremiah Knight, broken up by Sherrod GreeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17FUMBLE1 play · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
99.2%
Rico Dowdle run for 16 yds to the Akron 35 Rico Dowdle fumbled, forced by Zaire Jacobs, recovered by Akron Zaire JacobsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 40 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
98.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 26 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
98.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jeremiah Knight for 6 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+8
98.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 8 yds to the SCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.7%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jeremiah Knight, broken up by Israel MukuamuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19INT5 plays · 63 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
AKRDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:151% → 1%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
99.1%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 11 yds to the Akron 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
99.1%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jeremiah Knight, broken up by Josh BelkSimilar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
99.2%
Nick Gasser punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bryan Edwards at the SCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21FUMBLE3 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:23
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+4
99.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Kiel Pollard for 4 yds Kiel Pollard fumbled, forced by Brian Bell, recovered by Akron Zaire Jacobs , return for 1 yd to the Akron 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22FUMBLE4 plays · -7 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jemarulin Suggs for a loss of 2 yards Jemarulin Suggs fumbled, forced by Sherrod Greene, recovered by Akron Jemarulin SuggsSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+10
99.5%
Kato Nelson sacked by Brad Johnson and Kobe Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 47 Kato Nelson fumbled, recovered by SCaro Ernest Jones , return for 0 yards SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Javon Kinlaw) to the SCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23DOWNS11 plays · 33 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
AKRDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
99.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jemarulin Suggs for 7 yds Jemarulin Suggs fumbled, forced by Israel Mukuamu, recovered by AkronSimilar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius Smith, broken up by Brad JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Nick Gasser punt for 38 yds , Bryan Edwards returns for no gain to the SCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
AKRDrive 26DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to M.J. McGriff, broken up by R.J. RoderickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
99.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jacob August for 18 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan Edwards, broken up by Darian DaileySimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-10
99.8%
Jake Bentley sacked by Josh Ward and Jamal Davis II for a loss of 10 yards to the Akron 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 28PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 29PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:21
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Joseph Charlton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Knight at the Akron 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 30END OF GAME8 plays · 36 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to BENNETT, Mykel (Israel Mukuamu), PENALTY SC encroachment 5 yards to the AKRON40, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Will Tommie kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:33
Deltron Sands run for 6 yds to the Akron 31
-1.7
TD · Q2 1:33
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 5 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)
+1.2