2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadBCU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreBCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:12 · Barret Pickering 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:37: Devine Ozigbo run for 14 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK) — BCU win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- FG · Q1 8:28: Uriel Hernandez 28 yd FG GOOD — BCU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:55: Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK) — NEB win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:02: Maurice Washington run for 8 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK) — NEB win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 10:47BCU 4th & 1 at BCU 30, down 7Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:28BCU 4th & 11 at NEB 11, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.122% to convertField goalTheir call0.7%87% to makePunt0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:08BCU 4th & 4 at BCU 31, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 10:05BCU 4th & 5 at midfield, down 25Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 0:12NEB 4th & 8 at BCU 12, up 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%86% to makePunt99.4%−0.3average punt
- Q3 8:59NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 9, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 4:43NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 21, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q3 2:56BCU 4th & 15 at BCU 10, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 13:30BCU 4th & 1 at BCU 43, down 42Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:04NEB 4th & 26 at NEB 25, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 10:36BCU 4th & 16 at BCU 34, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.115% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:37NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:08NEB Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:55NEB Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:02NEB Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:39NEB Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1TD9 plays · 65 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
99.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 19 yds to the BthCk 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
99.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 9 yds to the BthCk 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+4
99.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 4 yds to the BthCk 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+8
99.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds to the BthCk 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
99.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 13 yds to the BthCk 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
99.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for 14 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 2PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · 9 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q1 10:47
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+77
99.6%
Javaunie Francis punt for 47 yds , JD Spielman returns for 77 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 3FG9 plays · 64 yds · 2:190% → 1%
NEBDrive 4TD7 plays · 76 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q1 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+40
99.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 40 yds JD Spielman fumbled, forced by Tydarius Peters, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+18
99.5%
Maurice Washington run for 18 yds to the BthCk 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
99.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 13 yds to the BthCk 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
NEBDrive 6TD8 plays · 69 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q1 5:21
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+9
99.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 9 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+11
99.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 11 yds to the BthCk 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 7INT11 plays · 52 yds · 2:551% → 1%
Q1 2:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.5%
David Israel pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for 6 yds to the BthCk 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.5%
David Israel pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for 3 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-4
99.4%
David Israel pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
50
+26
99.4%
David Israel pass complete to Jimmie Robinson for 26 yds to the Neb 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
99.4%
David Israel pass intercepted Peyton Newell return for no gain to the Neb 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8INT7 plays · 32 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
99.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 4 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 15
OPP 49
-4
99.5%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Tydarius Peters for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 47Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 19
OWN 47
-3
99.5%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Marquis Hendrix for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 22
OWN 44
+15
99.5%
Adrian Martinez pass intercepted Tydarius Peters return for 15 yds to the BthCk 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 10:05
2ND & 5
50
-6
99.0%
David Israel sacked by Mohamed Barry for a loss of 6 yards to the BthCk 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10TD7 plays · 74 yds · 2:4499% → 100%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Bryan Reimers for 9 yds to the BthCk 45Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+37
99.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 37 yds to the BthCk 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.3%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Vernon Walker IIISimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Maurice Washington run for 8 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 11FUMBLE7 plays · 25 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q2 3:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
99.8%
David Israel pass complete to Steffon Francois for 11 yds to the BthCk 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.8%
David Israel pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 11 yds Jonathon Thomas fumbled, forced by JoJo Domann, recovered by Neb Deontai Williams , return for 5 yds to the BthCk 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12FG9 plays · 33 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
99.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 7 yds to the BthCk 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 14PUNT16 plays · 36 yds · 4:580% → 0%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+18
99.8%
David Israel pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for 18 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
99.8%
David Israel pass incomplete to Jonathon Thomas, broken up by Dedrick Young IISimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+16
99.8%
David Israel pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for 16 yds to the Neb 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
99.8%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, false start (Dwayne Brown) to the Neb 13Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-21
99.9%
David Israel sacked by Luke Gifford for a loss of 21 yards to the Neb 34Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 34
-5
99.8%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Neb 39Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Uriel Hernandez punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:59
4TH & 6
OWN 9
+82
99.9%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 73 yds, downed at the NEBRASKA 18 BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Tydarius Peters) to the BthCk 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 16INT9 plays · 68 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
99.9%
David Israel pass incomplete to Keavon Mitchell, broken up by JoJo DomannSimilar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+40
99.9%
David Israel pass complete to Steffon Francois for 40 yds to the BthCk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+19
99.9%
David Israel run for 4 yds to the Neb 29 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, personal foul (Lamar Jackson) to the Neb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-9
99.9%
David Israel sacked by Ben Stille for a loss of 9 yards to the Neb 23Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 19
OPP 23
0
99.9%
David Israel pass incomplete to Steffon Francois, broken up by Deontai WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 19
OPP 23
0
99.9%
David Israel pass intercepted, touchback. Deontai Williams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-6
99.9%
Noah Vedral sacked by Kevin Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the Neb 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
99.9%
David Israel pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 17 yards to the BCU32, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BCU ineligible downfield on pass (Cedric Jackson) 5 yards to the BCU10, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19TD5 plays · 36 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:30
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Uriel Hernandez punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
99.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Miles Jones for 21 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-16
100.0%
Noah Vedral sacked by Kevin Thompson for a loss of 16 yards to the Neb 25 Noah Vedral fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 26
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Keavon Mitchell at the BthCk 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
100.0%
David Israel sacked by N/A for a loss of 6 yards to the BthCk 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23INT8 plays · 53 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:02
Maurice Washington run for 8 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 12:37
Devine Ozigbo run for 14 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)
-0.1
FG · Q1 8:28
Uriel Hernandez 28 yd FG GOOD
-0.1