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ALA

Alabama 35 at Georgia 28

UGA
2018 · Week 14 · Dec 1, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:10 · Jake Camarda punt for 44 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior−25.2Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:18: Josh Jacobs run for no gain Josh Jacobs fumbled, recovered by Alab Josh Jacobs for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +12.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:39: Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 23 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +13.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:02: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 51 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +19.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:19: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 10 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +33.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:04: Jalen Hurts run for 15 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +32.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 10ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:54UGA 4th & 17 at UGA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:10UGA 4th & 9 at ALA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    26.4%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:16ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:27ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00UGA 4th & 11 at UGA 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:53ALA 4th & 20 at ALA 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−4.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:13ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:20UGA 4th & 3 at ALA 13, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%−0.8
    85% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−11.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:31UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 12, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:11UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 47, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:31ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:27UGA 4th & 4 at ALA 48, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:04UGA 4th & 11 at midfield, tied
    Close callWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.6%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:32UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%−2.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:03UGA 4th & 7 at ALA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 3:08UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:31UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:05UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:39UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:02ALA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:19ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:04ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5922% → 23%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.3%
D'Andre Swift run for 1 yd to the Geo 26Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
22.6%
D'Andre Swift run for 3 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-11
22.9%
Jake Fromm sacked by Quinnen Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the Geo 18Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+36
23.1%
Jake Camarda punt for 47 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 36 yds to the Geo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:0377% → 76%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
23.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the Geo 20Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+14
23.3%
Damien Harris run for 14 yds to the Geo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
23.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs III, broken up by Eric StokesSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-11
23.6%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by D'Andre Walker for a loss of 11 yards to the Geo 17Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 0
OPP 29
+39
24.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass intercepted Richard LeCounte return for 29 yds to the Geo 29 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Block (Juwan Taylor) to the Geo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:2724% → 26%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
24.4%
Elijah Holyfield run for 5 yds to the Geo 24Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-5
24.8%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Solomon Kindley) to the Geo 19Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
24.7%
Elijah Holyfield run for 5 yds to the Geo 24Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+19
25.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 19 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
25.8%
D'Andre Swift run for 4 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
26.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 8 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
26.6%
D'Andre Swift run for 1 yd to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
26.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
26.7%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Jeremiah Holloman, broken up by Shyheim CarterSimilar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
26.3%
Jake Camarda punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4974% → 73%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
26.3%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
26.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
27.2%
Mike Bernier punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mecole Hardman at the Geo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:0227% → 34%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
27.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 18 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
28.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 9 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
28.8%
D'Andre Swift run for 2 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
29.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole HardmanSimilar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
29.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 11 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
29.7%
Elijah Holyfield run for no gain to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
34.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 20 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0268% → 72%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.3%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+23
32.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 23 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
32.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 3 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+17
32.4%
Najee Harris run for 17 yds to the Geo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
32.1%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass sacked for loss of 4 yards to the GEORGIA33 (Walker, D'Andre), PENALTY GEORGIA personal foul (Walker, D'Andre) 15 yards to the GEORGIA14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
32.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+13
32.6%
Josh Jacobs run for 13 yds to the Geo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.9%
Tua Tagovailoa run for no gain to the Geo 1Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.0%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 7:1331% → 47%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
31.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to James Cook for 7 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
32.2%
Tyler Simmons run for 2 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+7
31.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 7 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
33.0%
Justin Fields run for 3 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
33.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 2
50
+7
34.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 7 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
35.1%
D'Andre Swift run for 4 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-1
35.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+11
36.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 11 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
37.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 8 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+5
37.8%
Elijah Holyfield run for 5 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
38.2%
Elijah Holyfield run for 7 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
46.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 9 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5856% → 53%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
43.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
44.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
45.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+16
46.6%
Mike Bernier punt for 43 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 16 yds to the Geo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:1948% → 60%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
47.7%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Mecole HardmanSimilar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+20
47.5%
D'Andre Swift run for 20 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
48.8%
D'Andre Swift run for 13 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
49.4%
Elijah Holyfield run for 1 yd to the Alab 17Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+6
50.3%
Elijah Holyfield run for 6 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
60.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 11 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3542% → 55%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
58.1%
Josh Jacobs run for 59 yds to the Geo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
55.3%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Geo 12Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+11
56.1%
Damien Harris run for 11 yds to the Geo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.2%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Eric Stokes) to the Geo 1Similar
Q2 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.8%
Josh Jacobs run for no gain Josh Jacobs fumbled, recovered by Alab Josh Jacobs for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 12 yds · 2:0550% → 50%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
49.9%
D'Andre Swift run for no gain to the Geo 6Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+2
50.4%
D'Andre Swift run for 2 yds to the Geo 8Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+6
49.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 6 yds to the Geo 14Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 2
OWN 14
+5
49.3%
Camarda, Jake punt 52 yards to the ALABAMA34, downed, PENALTY ALABAMA running into kicker 5 yards to the GEORGIA19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
51.6%
D'Andre Swift run for no gain to the Geo 19Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
52.1%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to D'Andre SwiftSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-1
51.2%
Elijah Holyfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 18Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
50.2%
Jake Camarda punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:0150% → 46%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.5%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
51.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry Jeudy, broken up by D'Andre WalkerSimilar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-10
53.0%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Channing Tindall for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 15 ALABAMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
54.0%
Mike Bernier punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Mecole Hardman at the Geo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 1:0755% → 70%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
55.4%
Elijah Holyfield run for 7 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+21
56.4%
Elijah Holyfield run for 21 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
70.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 23 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1932% → 30%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 7 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
66.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-3
67.8%
Josh Jacobs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
70.5%
Mike Bernier punt for 46 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:4771% → 75%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.4%
D'Andre Swift run for 5 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
72.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (James Cook) to the Geo 25Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+55
73.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 55 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
75.2%
D'Andre Swift run for no gain to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
76.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 7 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
76.3%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
75.2%
Rodrigo Blankenship 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16INT
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:2627% → 30%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
73.5%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+23
74.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 23 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
72.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
73.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 12 yds Jerry Jeudy fumbled, forced by D'Andre Walker, recovered by Alab Jerry Jeudy for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
72.1%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass incomplete to Smith, DeVonta, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Stokes, Eric) 15 yards to the GEORGIA28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
70.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass intercepted J.R. Reed return for no gain to the Geo 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1179% → 81%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
78.5%
Elijah Holyfield run for 2 yds to the Geo 5Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+3
79.2%
Elijah Holyfield run for 3 yds to the Geo 8Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+4
79.0%
D'Andre Swift run for 4 yds to the Geo 12Similar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
80.5%
Jake Camarda punt for 60 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:1722% → 41%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
78.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 9 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+8
78.1%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
78.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 4 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+51
59.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 51 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4268% → 76%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.9%
Jake Fromm run for 3 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
67.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 11 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
72.5%
Elijah Holyfield run for no gain to the Geo 39Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
75.1%
Jake Fromm run for 8 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
76.1%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole Hardman, broken up by Shyheim CarterSimilar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
75.7%
Jake Camarda punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:3132% → 29%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
68.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 17 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
67.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
67.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
69.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete, broken up by D'Andre WalkerSimilar
Q4 14:31
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
70.8%
Mike Bernier punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:5577% → 79%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
76.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 7 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+12
78.3%
Jayson Stanley run for 12 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
80.4%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Terry Godwin, broken up by Anfernee JenningsSimilar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
80.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 6 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
80.5%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Tyler SimmonsSimilar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
78.9%
Jake Camarda punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 6:5926% → 60%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
74.2%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 18Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+13
75.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 13 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
74.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
75.2%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+13
77.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 13 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
74.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
74.6%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+23
73.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 23 yds to the Geo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
70.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 2 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+10
70.1%
Jalen Hurts run for 10 yds to the Geo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
70.4%
Damien Harris run for 9 yds to the Geo 9Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 1
OPP 9
0
71.2%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the Geo 9Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
76.7%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Geo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
75.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the Geo 5Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
75.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Lester Cotton Sr.) to the Geo 10Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
73.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q4 5:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
40.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 10 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:0653% → 52%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
52.8%
Justin Fields run for 1 yd to the Geo 25Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+26
52.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 26 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
60.0%
Elijah Holyfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 11
50
0
57.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 11
50
0
55.5%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole Hardman, broken up by Shyheim CarterSimilar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 11
50
+2
51.6%
Justin Fields run for 2 yds to the Alab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:5559% → 96%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
40.9%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+1
41.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 8
50
+19
42.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 19 yds to the Geo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
37.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 16 yds to the Geo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
4.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 15 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25Uncategorized
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:4814% → 12%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
14.3%
Jake Fromm pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
13.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 8 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
15.0%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+4
13.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 4 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
15.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 5 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-2
18.0%
Jake Fromm sacked by LaBryan Ray for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
14.0%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley Ridley, broken up by Jared MaydenSimilar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+10
12.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 10 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:19
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 10 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-33.7
TD · Q4 1:04
Jalen Hurts run for 15 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-32.7
TD · Q3 3:02
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 51 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-19.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com