2018 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2018 · Levi's Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:59 · Joel Whitford punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 1:05: Jason Shelley pass intercepted for a TD Byron Murphy return for 66 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +21.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 1:05: Peyton Henry kickoff for 53 yds , Demari Simpkins return for 15 yds to the Utah 42 — WASH win probability +8.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 0:50: Armand Shyne run for 1 yd to the Utah 43 — UTAH win probability +6.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 0:06: Jake Browning pass complete to Cade Otton for 8 yds to the Wash 14 — WASH win probability +9.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:17: Myles Gaskin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 37 — WASH win probability +6.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 9UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 8:20WASH 4th & 6 at UTAH 23, tiedClose callWent for it · 63.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.1%−<0.139% to convertField goal63.2%70% to makePunt62.3%−0.9average punt
- Q1 7:03UTAH 4th & 4 at UTAH 29, tiedClose callPunted · 36.9% before the snapGo for it37.1%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:59WASH 4th & 9 at WASH 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snapGo for it61.9%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.2%average punt
- Q1 3:48UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snapGo for it37.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.7%average punt
- Q2 12:17UTAH 4th & 7 at UTAH 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snapGo for it37.1%−0.835% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%average punt
- Q2 10:56WASH 4th & 7 at UTAH 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snapGo for it62.0%−<0.137% to convertField goal61.3%−0.723% to makePuntTheir call62.0%average punt
- Q2 9:20UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snapGo for it37.1%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.7%average punt
- Q2 5:09WASH 4th & 5 at UTAH 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.0%41% to convertField goal62.0%−<0.162% to makePunt58.1%−3.9average punt
- Q2 3:08WASH 4th & 2 at UTAH 11, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snapGo for it62.6%56% to convertField goalTheir call61.5%−1.187% to makePunt56.5%−6.1average punt
- Q3 11:17UTAH 4th & 11 at WASH 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snapGo for it34.9%−0.527% to convertField goalTheir call35.3%42% to makePunt34.8%−0.5average punt
- Q3 6:10WASH 4th & 1 at UTAH 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.5%71% to convertField goal58.5%−4.054% to makePunt56.6%−5.9average punt
- Q3 4:11WASH 4th & 12 at UTAH 32, tiedNumbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 58.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.3%−1.723% to convertField goal58.1%51% to makePunt56.2%−1.9average punt
- Q4 5:10WASH 4th & 2 at UTAH 21, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snapGo for it90.0%57% to convertField goalTheir call89.1%−0.974% to makePunt84.1%−5.9average punt
- Q4 3:24WASH 4th & 9 at UTAH 36, up 7Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snapGo for it91.8%32% to convertField goal91.8%−<0.142% to makePuntTheir call91.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 0:27UTAH 4th & 12 at WASH 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.0%24% to convertField goal7.4%−1.730% to makePunt7.0%−2.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q3 1:05WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.6%97% to makeGo for two73.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWASHDrive 1DOWNS15 plays · 52 yds · 6:3368% → 67%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
67.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 13 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
67.6%
Gaskin, Myles rush for 1 yard to the WASHINGTON42, PENALTY UTAH offside (Tupai, Maxs) 5 yards to the WASHINGTON46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+5
67.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 5 yds to the Utah 35Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+8
67.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 8 yds to the Utah 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
67.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for 2 yds to the Utah 23Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
67.4%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Hunter Bryant, broken up by Mika TafuaSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 6
OPP 23
0
67.1%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Aaron Fuller, broken up by Jaylon JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1233% → 33%
WASHDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5467% → 66%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
66.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for 1 yd to the Wash 25Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
66.4%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Drew Sample, broken up by Corrion BallardSimilar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
65.7%
Joel Whitford punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0234% → 34%
Q1 3:48
4TH & 8
OWN 49
+31
66.0%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the WASHINGTON 15 UTAH Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Pita Tonga) to the Wash 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5INT8 plays · 54 yds · 4:2866% → 67%
UTAHDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4935% → 34%
WASHDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1366% → 65%
UTAHDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2836% → 35%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
64.1%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Solomon Enis, broken up by Taylor RappSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-2
64.2%
Jason Shelley sacked by Myles Bryant for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 8Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 12
OWN 8
+6
64.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Devin Brumfield for 6 yds to the Utah 14Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+3
65.1%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 44 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for 3 yds to the Wash 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9FG12 plays · 44 yds · 5:5267% → 68%
UTAHDrive 10END OF HALF10 plays · 30 yds · 2:2633% → 36%
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
66.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 11 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+13
63.5%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 13 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-9
64.0%
Jason Shelley sacked by Taylor Rapp for a loss of 9 yards to the Wash 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11FG11 plays · 46 yds · 3:3134% → 40%
Q3 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+25
67.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 25 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+16
64.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 16 yds to the Wash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
64.0%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Demari Simpkins, broken up by Joe TryonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12DOWNS16 plays · 52 yds · 6:5162% → 60%
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+15
62.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 15 yds to the Wash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
65.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 11 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
66.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for no gain to the Utah 37Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+6
65.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Drew Sample for 6 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-10
66.7%
Browning, Jake rush for 7 yards to the UTAH23, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding (McGary, Kaleb) 10 yards to the UTAH40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+8
63.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 8 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+4
60.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 4 yds to the Utah 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13INT TD6 plays · 25 yds · 2:5943% → 26%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
56.8%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Armand Shyne for 5 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
54.6%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 10 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+66
74.1%
Jason Shelley pass intercepted for a TD Byron Murphy return for 66 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14INT4 plays · 11 yds · 0:3724% → 26%
Q3 0:20
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+10
76.3%
Shelley, Jason pass incomplete to Enis, Solomon, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding (Miller, Jordan) 10 yards to the WASHINGTON47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAH.Similar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
74.2%
Jason Shelley pass intercepted Jordan Miller return for no gain to the Wash 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15MISSED FG19 plays · 73 yds · 9:5684% → 90%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
83.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Cade Otton for 8 yds to the Wash 14Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+18
83.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Drew Sample for 18 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
85.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 5 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+6
86.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 6 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
87.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for 3 yds to the Utah 49Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 2
OPP 32
-10
88.7%
Gaskin, Myles rush for loss of 1 yard to the UTAH33, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding (Harris, Nick) 10 yards to the UTAH42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
90.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jacob Kizer for 8 yds to the Utah 21Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+1
90.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 1 yd to the Utah 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16INT3 plays · 4 yds · 0:3515% → 13%
WASHDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5393% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18DOWNS12 plays · 51 yds · 2:3611% → 8%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
89.1%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 5 yds to the Utah 12Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+7
89.1%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 7 yds to the Utah 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+14
89.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 14 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
88.5%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 11 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+5
85.1%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 5 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
85.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to TJ Green for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 41Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-1
87.0%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 42Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
92.0%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Siaosi Mariner, broken up by Byron MurphySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:05
Jason Shelley pass intercepted for a TD Byron Murphy return for 66 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)
+21.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:06
Jake Browning pass complete to Cade Otton for 8 yds to the Wash 14
+9.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:05
Peyton Henry kickoff for 53 yds , Demari Simpkins return for 15 yds to the Utah 42
+8.3