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UAB

UAB 27 at Middle Tennessee 25

MTSU
2018 · Week 14 · Dec 1, 2018 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreUAB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:02 · Kyle Greenwell punt for 45 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Home team on offense−6.8Score differential−3.6Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0One-score game−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:08: Spencer Brown 2 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick) — UAB win probability +10.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 4:15: Andre Wilson 40 Yd pass from Tyler Johnston III (Nick Vogel Kick) — UAB win probability +9.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:20: Tyler Johnston III 3 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick) — UAB win probability +9.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:52: Zack Dobson 46 Yd pass from Brent Stockstill (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MTSU win probability +20.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. FG · Q4 3:23: Nick Vogel 28 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +26.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10UAB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:56MTSU 4th & 16 at UAB 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37UAB 4th & 2 at MTSU 12, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:35MTSU 4th & 3 at UAB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:59MTSU 4th & 3 at UAB 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.5%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:27UAB 4th & 9 at UAB 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00MTSU 4th & 4 at UAB 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:44MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00MTSU 4th & 5 at UAB 10, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−6.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:17MTSU 4th & 2 at UAB 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%−1.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−8.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:28UAB 4th & 1 at MTSU 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−4.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:21UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−2.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:02UAB 4th & 7 at MTSU 45, up 2
    Close callPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%−4.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:08MTSU 4th & 14 at UAB 16, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−7.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−18.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:57UAB 4th & 13 at UAB 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−3.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:55MTSU 4th & 14 at MTSU 12, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−10.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:23UAB 4th & 1 at MTSU 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−5.7
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−25.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:21MTSU 4th & 6 at UAB 46, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−8.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:00MTSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:08UAB Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:15UAB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:20UAB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:52MTSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    50.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:3450% → 51%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.8%
Tavares Thomas run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+44
49.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 44 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
50.0%
Chaton Mobley run for 15 yds to the UAB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
50.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for 2 yds to the UAB 12Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-1
50.3%
Brent Stockstill run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 13Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-7
50.5%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Jamell Garcia-Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the UAB 20Similar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 16
OPP 20
+37
50.5%
Crews Holt 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:5849% → 50%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
50.6%
Spencer Brown run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
50
+1
50.3%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
50.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Andre WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+16
50.6%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 16 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
50.3%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+11
50.5%
Spencer Brown run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
50.6%
Tyler Johnston III run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+5
50.6%
Tyler Johnston III run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-1
51.0%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+29
50.3%
Nick Vogel 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:0151% → 53%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
50.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for 24 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
51.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 6 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
52.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 6 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
52.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 7 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
52.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for no gain to the UAB 32Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
52.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Terelle WestSimilar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+27
51.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 27 yds to the UAB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
52.9%
Jocquez Bruce run for 1 yd to the UAB 4Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
53.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the UAB 3Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
52.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q1 2:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
53.3%
Crews Holt 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:5347% → 46%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
52.9%
Spencer Brown run for 17 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
51.9%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 47Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
52.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Hayden PittmanSimilar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
52.6%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Justin WalkerSimilar
Q1 1:27
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
53.6%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:0453% → 60%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+55
53.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for 55 yds to the UAB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
55.0%
Zack Dobson run for 3 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+3
55.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the UAB 19Similar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
55.5%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Gatlin CaseySimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+19
59.7%
Tavares Thomas 19 Yd pass from Brent Stockstill (Crews Holt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:2240% → 47%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.0%
Tyler Johnston III run for 8 yds to the UAB 33Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
59.3%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
60.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 5 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+10
60.2%
Spencer Brown run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
60.0%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
60.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Donnie Lee for 6 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
60.4%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
60.7%
Tyler Johnston III run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+3
60.2%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
60.8%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+7
61.1%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Jarrion Street for 7 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
62.1%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
61.6%
Tyler Johnston III run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
62.2%
Jarrion Street run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
63.2%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.2%
Spencer Brown 2 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0158% → 56%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
57.5%
Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
57.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 6 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
57.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
56.1%
Matt Bonadies punt for 43 yds , Andre Wilson returns for 5 yds to the UAB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:0543% → 55%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
56.6%
Tyler Johnston III run for 13 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
55.1%
Spencer Brown run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
54.6%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+40
44.9%
Andre Wilson 40 Yd pass from Tyler Johnston III (Nick Vogel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1148% → 47%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
47.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.8%
Brent Stockstill pass intercepted Chris Woolbright return for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:3556% → 65%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
44.5%
UAB Penalty, False Start (Justice Powers) to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 15
50
-10
45.6%
Tyler Johnston III sacked by Malik Manciel for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard line UAB Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 25
50
+43
45.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 43 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
44.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Rosheem Collins) to the MTnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.2%
Tyler Johnston III 3 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11END OF HALF
19 plays · 80 yds · 2:4535% → 39%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
35.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 2 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+1
35.0%
Tavares Thomas run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+15
33.8%
Stockstill, Brent pass incomplete to Thomas, Tavares, PENALTY UAB personal foul 15 yards to the MIDDLETENN28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN.Similar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
35.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 4 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+10
35.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
35.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+26
35.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 26 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
38.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
38.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 9 yds to the UAB 23Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+8
37.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 8 yds to the UAB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
38.5%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavares ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
38.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 8 yds to the UAB 7Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-3
36.1%
Jocquez Bruce run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 10Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
38.7%
Crews Holt 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0766% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
34.5%
UAB Penalty, False Start (Malique Johnson) to the UAB 20Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
35.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass intercepted Wesley Bush return for 1 yd to the UAB 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:2340% → 36%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
39.7%
Ty Lee run for 1 yd to the UAB 47Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+6
39.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 6 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+7
39.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 7 yds to the UAB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
40.3%
Zack Dobson run for 1 yd to the UAB 33Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+3
39.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+4
38.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 4 yds to the UAB 26Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 2
OPP 26
0
36.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:2067% → 70%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
32.8%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+5
31.6%
Tyler Johnston III run for 5 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
30.7%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
29.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Donnie Lee for 7 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
29.8%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
28.9%
Tyler Johnston III run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
28.3%
Tyler Johnston III run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
28.3%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
29.8%
Tyler Johnston III run for no gain to the MTnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 2:0834% → 53%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
34.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
34.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+8
31.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 8 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
32.7%
Tavares Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 46Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+46
52.9%
Zack Dobson 46 Yd pass from Brent Stockstill (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0455% → 53%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.3%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
45.0%
Lucious Stanley run for 4 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
45.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Spencer BrownSimilar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+8
47.2%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 41 yds , Ty Lee returns for 8 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3150% → 51%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
49.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 5 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
52.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
50.7%
Brent Stockstill pass intercepted Dy'jonn Turner return for no gain to the UAB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0559% → 58%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
40.9%
Jarrion Street run for 4 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
40.2%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 42Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+10
41.6%
Tyler Johnston III run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
40.1%
Tyler Johnston III run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
39.8%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-1
39.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Jarrion Street for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
42.1%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:3749% → 63%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+48
49.2%
Zack Dobson run for 48 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-6
57.6%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the UAB 38Similar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 16
OPP 38
+26
52.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 26 yds to the UAB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
57.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the UAB 9Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
57.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 2 yds to the UAB 7Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 5
OPP 7
-9
55.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for a loss of 9 yards to the UAB 16Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+33
62.8%
Crews Holt 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0539% → 37%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Andre WilsonSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
60.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kendall Parham for 17 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
57.0%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-2
56.3%
Tyler Johnston III run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 44Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-5
58.9%
Tyler Johnston III sacked by Trae Philpots for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 39Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
63.5%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:5565% → 61%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
64.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 3 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+5
64.0%
Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 2
OWN 24
-12
63.6%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Tre' Crawford for a loss of 12 yards to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
61.0%
Matt Bonadies punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22FG
5 plays · 39 yds · 2:0245% → 72%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
50
+30
54.9%
Spencer Brown run for 30 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
52.9%
Jarrion Street run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
52.9%
Tyler Johnston III run for no gain to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+4
55.3%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+28
28.3%
Nick Vogel 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:4944% → 43%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.6%
Brent Stockstill run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
43.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+16
40.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
50
+4
46.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
47.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Gatlin CaseySimilar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
46.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
43.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
10 plays · 10 yds · 1:1583% → 95%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
17.1%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
13.3%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+1
13.6%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+5
14.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (TEAM) to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
6.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 43
-1
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 3:23
Nick Vogel 28 yd FG GOOD
-26.9
TD · Q3 3:52
Zack Dobson 46 Yd pass from Brent Stockstill (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+20.2
TD · Q2 7:08
Spencer Brown 2 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com