Try the model
UL

Louisiana 19 at App State 30

APP
2018 · Week 14 · Dec 1, 2018 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDFGFGEnd of GameTD+11.1APP 89.8%Zac Thomas run for 35 yds for a TD(Chandler Staton KICK)AWAY 16 - HOME 27 · Q4 11:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:43 · Zac Thomas run for 35 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+7.5Home team on offense+18.6Garbage-time factor+8.9Score differential+4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:17: Zac Thomas run for 25 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +4.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:34: Andre Nunez run for 8 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +9.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q3 0:00: Chandler Staton 42 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +2.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:43: Zac Thomas run for 35 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +11.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:01: Kyle Pfau 24 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +2.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 9 of 9UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 10:13UL 4th & 2 at APP 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.7%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:02UL 4th & 9 at UL 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:25APP 4th & 9 at APP 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:57UL 4th & 1 at UL 16, down 4
    Close callPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:30APP 4th & 15 at APP 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:34UL 4th & 4 at UL 36, down 4
    Close callPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:36APP 4th & 7 at APP 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:17UL 4th & 9 at APP 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:09APP 4th & 14 at APP 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:19APP 4th & 7 at UL 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−4.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:24APP 4th & 1 at APP 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.4%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:00UL 4th & 5 at APP 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−7.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00APP 4th & 11 at UL 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−11.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:43APP 4th & 1 at UL 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%−5.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−6.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:23UL 4th & 3 at APP 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:01UL 4th & 7 at APP 7, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.5%−1.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−4.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:09APP 4th & 5 at UL 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−2.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:23UL 4th & 4 at APP 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:56APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:17APP Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:34UL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:43APP Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:4216% → 18%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
84.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+27
83.9%
Trey Ragas run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Anthony Flory) to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
83.7%
Ryheem Malone run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+6
83.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Matt Barnes for 6 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+20
83.2%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 20 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
83.0%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+1
82.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+5
82.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 5 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
82.4%
Kyle Pfau 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4017% → 17%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
83.2%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
83.2%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Johnny LumpkinSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
83.3%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
83.4%
Rhys Byrns punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2783% → 83%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
83.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 6 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-5
83.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
82.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+48
82.5%
Clayton Howell punt for 48 yds , Ryheem Malone returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1917% → 17%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
83.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
82.8%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Johnny LumpkinSimilar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+6
83.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 6 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+3
83.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 48 yds , Clifton Duck returns for 3 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1783% → 82%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
82.5%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
82.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
-6
82.1%
Zac Thomas sacked by Kris Moncrief for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 15
OWN 34
+7
81.6%
Clayton Howell punt for 55 yds , Earnest Patterson returns for 7 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:4718% → 18%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
82.3%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+3
82.3%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+8
82.3%
Levi Lewis run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
81.6%
Raymond Calais run for no gain to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
81.6%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+6
81.7%
Levi Lewis run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 0:34
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
81.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2481% → 80%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
80.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 8 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+3
81.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
80.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
80.6%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
80.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
79.9%
Clayton Howell punt for 46 yds , Earnest Patterson returns for no gain to the LaLaf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 5:1319% → 22%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
80.7%
Andre Nunez run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+10
80.5%
Trey Ragas run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
79.9%
Trey Ragas run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
79.4%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+10
80.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 10 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
80.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+8
80.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 8 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
79.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-2
79.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+2
80.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
77.8%
Kyle Pfau 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5080% → 85%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
79.7%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+21
79.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 21 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
80.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+7
80.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+13
80.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 13 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
81.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+9
81.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
81.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
81.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Noah Hannon) to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+25
85.3%
Zac Thomas run for 25 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1816% → 17%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
83.9%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
83.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+8
83.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 8 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
82.4%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
82.9%
Andre Nunez pass intercepted Josh Thomas return for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2685% → 84%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
84.6%
Zac Thomas sacked by LaDarrius Kidd for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+1
84.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+1
84.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
84.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Earnest Patterson at the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0416% → 15%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.4%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Trey RagasSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
84.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:3685% → 86%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.6%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+48
84.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 48 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
86.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
86.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-1
85.3%
Zac Thomas sacked by Bennie Higgins and Garrald McDowell for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
85.9%
Chandler Staton 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:2616% → 26%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
84.3%
Trey Ragas run for 20 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
83.3%
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+1
83.2%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the AppSt 8Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
73.7%
Andre Nunez run for 8 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4378% → 77%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
78.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
78.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
76.9%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the AppSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:2428% → 31%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
72.2%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 15
OPP 39
-5
74.5%
LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (Rico Robinson) to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 20
OPP 44
-5
74.6%
LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 49Similar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+6
74.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 19
OPP 43
+13
74.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 13 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+19
72.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 19 yds to the AppSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
71.0%
Levi Lewis run for 1 yd to the AppSt 10Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+4
70.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
71.7%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
69.5%
Kyle Pfau 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:5572% → 76%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
72.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 15 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
73.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+17
74.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chaiziere Malbrue) to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
75.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
74.9%
Dominique Heath run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+10
74.5%
Zac Thomas run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
75.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devin Papenheim) to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+1
74.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 19
OPP 32
+8
73.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 8 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
73.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+42
75.8%
Chandler Staton 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:5827% → 32%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
72.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
71.0%
Andre Nunez run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 3
50
-5
68.5%
LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (Max Mitchell) to the LaLaf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 1:2279% → 90%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
79.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
79.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
78.8%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+35
89.8%
Zac Thomas run for 35 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:2911% → 12%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
88.7%
Trey Ragas run for 21 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
87.2%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
88.8%
Andre Nunez run for 1 yd to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+2
89.1%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+7
90.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 7 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
88.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 9 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+5
88.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the AppSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
88.6%
Trey Ragas run for 10 yds to the AppSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
88.4%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the AppSt 7Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
89.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the AppSt 3Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
90.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 7Similar
Q4 6:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
88.0%
Kyle Pfau 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:3893% → 96%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
92.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 34 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
94.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+6
94.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
94.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-1
95.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
95.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
96.2%
Chandler Staton 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:294% → 5%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
95.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 20 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
95.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 6 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
94.5%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
94.9%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Trey RagasSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
95.3%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24Uncategorized
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:4197% → 97%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
97.1%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
97.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+10
97.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 10 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
97.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 15
OPP 49
-2
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:43
Zac Thomas run for 35 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q3 10:34
Andre Nunez run for 8 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q2 3:17
Zac Thomas run for 25 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com