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FRES

Fresno State 19 at Boise State 16

BOIS
2018 · Week 14 · Dec 1, 2018 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:03 · Quinn Skillin punt for 33 yds, downed at the FrsSt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 121Home team on offense−8.1Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−4.3Pregame prior+1.0Time remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 11:07: Asa Fuller 38 Yd Field Goal — FRES win probability +5.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 8:01: Alexander Mattison 34 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth PAT blocked) — BOIS win probability +25.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:11: Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John Hightower — BOIS win probability +15.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Haden Hoggarth 23 Yd Field Goal — BOIS win probability +17.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd for a TD — FRES win probability +57.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 10FRES made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:32BOIS 4th & 7 at FRES 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:19FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:16BOIS 4th & 12 at FRES 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    56.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:52BOIS 4th & 8 at FRES 23, tied
    Close callWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.9%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−4.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:20FRES 4th & 14 at BOIS 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:11BOIS 4th & 17 at BOIS 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:07FRES 4th & 12 at BOIS 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−2.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−9.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:52BOIS 4th & 6 at FRES 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−9.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:58FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:03BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 36, down 6
    Close callPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:35FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 40, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%−3.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:53BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:31FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:23BOIS 4th & 20 at BOIS 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−6.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:10FRES 4th & 16 at FRES 49, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:59FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−2.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:08BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.6 ptsPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%−7.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:15BOIS 4th & 9 at FRES 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%−2.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%−2.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:23FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−6.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:03FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:56BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:01BOIS Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:2154% → 54%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
53.6%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
53.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+24
53.7%
Brett Rypien run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Targeting (Arron Mosby) to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST down. FRESNO ST Arron Mosby ejected for TargetingSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
53.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+1
54.0%
Brett Rypien run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
54.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
53.9%
Quinn Skillin punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:1346% → 46%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
53.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Michiah Quick for 13 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
53.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+6
53.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
53.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
53.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+4
54.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 4 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
54.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
54.2%
Brett Rypien run for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 20 Brett Rypien fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Mykal WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:0847% → 49%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
53.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
53.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+15
51.4%
Michiah Quick 15 Yd pass from Marcus McMaryion (Asa Fuller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:0352% → 56%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
51.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 10 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
51.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+11
52.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 11 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
52.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 5 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
52.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
52.0%
Brett Rypien run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
52.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+18
51.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Anthoula Kelly) to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
52.3%
Brett Rypien run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+4
52.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+6
51.6%
Brett Rypien run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
52.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-1
52.1%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
56.2%
Sean Modster 10 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:5346% → 45%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
54.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Logan Hughes) to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-4
54.2%
Michiah Quick run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+8
54.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 8 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
55.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (George Helmuth) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
55.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:4455% → 55%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
55.4%
CT Thomas run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+13
56.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
57.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the BOISEST 43 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Akilian Butler) to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 12
OWN 47
+1
56.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+1
56.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chase Blakley for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+17
55.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 17 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
57.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-5
57.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Garrett Larson) to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-2
57.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
56.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alexander MattisonSimilar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
55.1%
Quinn Skillin punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:1746% → 45%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
54.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
53.8%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-5
54.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Logan Hughes) to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+17
54.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Michiah Quick for 17 yds Michiah Quick fumbled, forced by Avery Williams, recovered by BoiSt Avery WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:0758% → 56%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
58.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+14
58.2%
CT Thomas run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
58.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (John Bates) to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+5
58.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-2
58.9%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+9
57.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 9 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 3
OPP 18
-5
56.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Chase Blakley) to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 8
OPP 23
0
56.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:3248% → 49%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
52.5%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+9
51.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 9 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
51.4%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
51.7%
McMaryion, Marcus pass incomplete to Johnson, KeeSean, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference (Williams, Avery) 15 yards to the BOISEST48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.Similar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
49.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 12 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
49.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+10
48.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
48.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 11
OPP 23
-3
49.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 14
OPP 26
0
51.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+44
50.8%
Asa Fuller 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 3:0950% → 49%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
49.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
51.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
51.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
53.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+3
53.1%
Brett Rypien run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
53.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chase BlakleySimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-7
53.4%
Brett Rypien sacked by Mykal Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 17
OWN 49
0
49.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
48.8%
Quinn Skillin punt for 43 yds, downed at the FrsSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
50.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:4653% → 59%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
46.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
45.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+29
46.3%
Marcus McMaryion run for 29 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
44.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-3
43.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+10
45.9%
McMaryion, Marcus pass incomplete to Jordan, Jamire, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Horton, Tyler) 10 yards to the BOISEST19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.Similar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
44.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
44.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
45.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
40.6%
Asa Fuller 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:0944% → 41%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
44.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+17
45.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 17 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
47.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+6
48.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
47.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
46.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-1
46.5%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+3
44.3%
Brett Rypien run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
41.0%
Haden Hoggarth 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5463% → 62%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
36.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
35.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for no gain to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-1
37.2%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Tyson Maeva for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
38.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 44 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5538% → 36%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
38.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
37.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+1
37.7%
Brett Rypien run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
35.9%
Quinn Skillin punt for 33 yds, downed at the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2867% → 68%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
33.3%
Marcus McMaryion run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
32.3%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
31.8%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
31.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4236% → 35%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
36.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 8 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
38.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
36.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 7 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
39.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-2
37.5%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
34.5%
Quinn Skillin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2268% → 69%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
30.4%
Derrion Grim run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
29.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
31.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:0836% → 32%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
35.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-10
35.4%
Brett Rypien sacked by Jasad Haynes and Mike Bell for a loss of 10 yards to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 20
OWN 22
0
32.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 20
OWN 22
0
31.7%
Quinn Skillin punt for 55 yds, downed at the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:1371% → 70%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+32
29.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 32 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
24.9%
Josh Hokit run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
24.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
25.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 11
OPP 46
-5
29.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (George Helmuth) to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
29.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds, downed at the BoiSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 3:0932% → 64%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+29
31.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Bates for 29 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
34.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
34.8%
Brett Rypien run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+6
34.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 6 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
36.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
38.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+34
64.0%
Alexander Mattison 34 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5749% → 47%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
50.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
50.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
52.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 41 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5156% → 55%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
56.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 6 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+1
59.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
56.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
55.3%
Quinn Skillin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:5750% → 53%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
49.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
50.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+14
52.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 14 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
48.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 4 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
46.8%
Michiah Quick run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 43 Michiah Quick fumbled, forced by Tyson Maeva, recovered by BoiSt Kekaula KanihoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5663% → 56%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
62.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
62.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
60.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
55.8%
Quinn Skillin punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:5250% → 50%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
49.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+16
50.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
47.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 18 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
42.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
43.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 3 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-5
42.6%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Jordan Happle for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
50.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 37 yds, downed at the BoiSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:2355% → 54%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
55.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+10
54.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
55.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
54.3%
Robert Mahone run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 29FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
64.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+10
64.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
64.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
64.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
62.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
79.4%
Haden Hoggarth 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 30TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 88%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
70.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+16
72.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 16 yds to the BoiSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
70.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the BoiSt 1Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd for a TD
-57.6
TD · Q4 8:01
Alexander Mattison 34 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth PAT blocked)
+25.3
FG · OT 0:00
Haden Hoggarth 23 Yd Field Goal
+17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com