Try the model
MSU

Michigan State 6 at Oregon 7

ORE
2018 · Postseason · Dec 31, 2018 · Levi's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:59 · William Przystup punt for 42 yds , Ugochukwu Amadi returns for 9 yds to the Oregn 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factor
+14.5+7.30−7.3−14.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Home team on offense−12.2Pregame prior+1.3Score differential−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.8Garbage-time factor−5.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 11:19: Dillon Mitchell 28 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Adam Stack Kick) — ORE win probability +24.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:05: Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 35 — MSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:34: Brian Lewerke pass incomplete — ORE win probability +7.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:32: CJ Verdell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 30 — ORE win probability +12.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:00: Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 42 — MSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 8 of 11MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 14:30ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:34MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:31ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:28MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:28ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:26MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:11ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:09ORE 4th & 10 at MSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:38MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:40ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:30MSU 4th & 1 at ORE 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−1.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−6.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:43ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:21MSU 4th & 10 at ORE 38, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:57MSU 4th & 10 at ORE 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−9.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:39ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−1.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:19MSU 4th & 10 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:47ORE 4th & 13 at ORE 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−3.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:17MSU 4th & 7 at ORE 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−13.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 6, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−3.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:59MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−2.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:48MSU 4th & 7 at ORE 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−4.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:34MSU 4th & 9 at ORE 32, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 10.9 ptsWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.2%−10.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    41.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−16.3
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:11ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−7.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 11:19ORE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1656% → 56%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
56.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
56.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q1 14:36
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
56.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q1 14:30
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+2
56.4%
Blake Maimone punt for 37 yds , Jalen Nailor returns for 2 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4144% → 43%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
56.4%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-10
56.4%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Troy Dye for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+6
56.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
56.7%
William Przystup punt for 46 yds, downed at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:4657% → 57%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
56.6%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
56.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 2 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
56.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 10 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
56.7%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
56.9%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
56.9%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
56.6%
Blake Maimone punt for 36 yds, downed at the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:0343% → 44%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
56.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 18Similar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+2
56.7%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+12
56.7%
LJ Scott run for 12 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+1
56.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
56.4%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
56.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 5 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
56.1%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
56.4%
William Przystup punt for 36 yds, downed at the Oregn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:5057% → 56%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
56.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 9 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+3
57.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 3 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
56.9%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
57.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-8
57.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
56.1%
Tom Snee punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen Nailor at the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5544% → 43%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
56.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
56.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+2
57.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 2 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
57.2%
William Przystup punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ugochukwu Amadi at the Oregn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0657% → 56%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
56.8%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+7
56.8%
Justin Herbert run for 7 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
56.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Ryan BaySimilar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
56.3%
Tom Snee punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:0044% → 46%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
56.3%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
55.8%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
55.2%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
55.1%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 5
50
+25
55.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 25 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
54.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+2
54.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 2 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+8
54.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 8 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
54.1%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Jevon Holland return for no gain to the Oregn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:2157% → 57%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
57.0%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+14
56.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 14 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
57.2%
CJ Verdell run for 8 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+21
58.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 21 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
59.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to CJ VerdellSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
59.0%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
58.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
56.8%
Tom Snee punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0744% → 43%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
55.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
55.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-6
56.6%
Brian Lewerke sacked by La'Mar Winston Jr. and Justin Hollins for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
57.4%
William Przystup punt for 47 yds, downed at the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4858% → 58%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
57.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 4 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
58.9%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+2
58.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 2 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+3
57.5%
Tom Snee punt for 38 yds , Jalen Nailor returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12DOWNS
13 plays · 56 yds · 5:0945% → 47%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
55.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 15
OWN 16
-1
55.6%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+10
54.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+15
55.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 15 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
52.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
53.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 7 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+10
52.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 10 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
51.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 11 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
50.2%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+5
49.7%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the Oregn 24 Connor Heyward fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
50.7%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
52.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3258% → 56%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-8
57.8%
Justin Herbert sacked by Jacub Panasiuk and - Team for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 18
OWN 15
0
57.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+15
55.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 15 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
55.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jalen Nailor at the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:1747% → 48%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
53.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
51.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 3 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+10
50.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 10 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
49.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 10 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
49.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for no gain to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
49.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
50.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
52.4%
William Przystup punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
57.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:4846% → 53%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
54.0%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
53.7%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+17
54.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 17 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
51.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+10
51.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
50.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+14
50.7%
LJ Scott run for 14 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
49.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 11 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
49.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
49.1%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for no gain to the Oregn 16Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
51.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
47.0%
Matt Coghlin 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4549% → 46%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
48.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 4 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 15
0
48.9%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
47.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+5
46.3%
Blake Maimone punt for 40 yds , Jalen Nailor returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5656% → 52%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
50
+1
43.7%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Oregn 49Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-1
43.6%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 10
50
0
45.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 10
50
0
47.7%
William Przystup punt for 49 yds, downed at the Oregn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:0548% → 44%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
47.9%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 2Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
47.6%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+7
45.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 7 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
48.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 5 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-8
48.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 1 yd to the Oregn 18 OREGON Penalty, Illegal Block (-9 Yards) to the Oregn 9Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 13
OWN 9
0
46.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 13
OWN 9
0
45.0%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 13
OWN 9
0
44.0%
Blake Maimone punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Nailor at the Oregn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:5259% → 67%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
41.3%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+2
40.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
40.9%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
40.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 17 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
39.0%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Oregn 18Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+2
38.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 2 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
40.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
33.1%
Matt Coghlin 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21Uncategorized
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4538% → 35%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
37.9%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 4
OWN 12
0
38.4%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 12
-6
36.3%
Justin Herbert sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 6
0
34.9%
Blake Maimone punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jalen Nailor at the MchSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4870% → 67%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
30.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
30.3%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-5
30.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 14
OWN 41
+3
31.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 11
OWN 44
+9
32.9%
William Przystup punt for 42 yds , Ugochukwu Amadi returns for 9 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:4038% → 69%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
37.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 15 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
39.2%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+18
41.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 18 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
42.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 9 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+4
44.8%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
68.9%
Dillon Mitchell 28 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Adam Stack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24MISSED FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0340% → 41%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
59.6%
Jalen Nailor run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+26
57.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 26 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
54.4%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Justin Hollins for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+7
57.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
56.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
59.2%
Matt Coghlin 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:3364% → 67%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
63.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 7 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+16
67.4%
CJ Verdell run for 16 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
69.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
70.2%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
70.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
67.4%
Justin Herbert run for no gain to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 33 yds · 4:3143% → 38%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.4%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
58.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
54.3%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
53.7%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
55.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+2
53.2%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
52.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 6 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+5
52.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
50.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
53.1%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-2
54.9%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 32 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 9
OPP 32
0
62.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27FUMBLE
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:2175% → 75%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
74.6%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+2
73.1%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+2
71.8%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+4
75.2%
Blake Maimone punt for 32 yds , Jalen Nailor returns for 4 yds to the MchSt 42 Jalen Nailor fumbled, recovered by MchSt , return for 4 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 28Uncategorized
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:1036% → 35%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
64.1%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
65.4%
Jalen Nailor run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+34.6
TD · Q4 11:19
Dillon Mitchell 28 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Adam Stack Kick)
+24.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:32
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 30
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com