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UK

Kentucky 27 at Penn State 24

PSU
2018 · Vrbo Citrus Bowl · Jan 1, 2019 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Max Duffy punt for 33 yds , KJ Hamler returns for no gain to the PnSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Pregame prior+0.0Home team on offense−32.0Score differential−5.3Garbage-time factor−13.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:38: Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK) — UK win probability +11.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:48: Miles Butler 28 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +8.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:35: Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK) — UK win probability +16.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:37: Trace McSorley run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +18.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:00: Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +22.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 14:15PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:23UK 4th & 2 at PSU 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:50PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:48UK 4th & 1 at UK 12, up 3
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:07PSU 4th & 1 at UK 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:00PSU 4th & 13 at UK 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:19UK 4th & 4 at UK 28, up 3
    Close callPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:45PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:30UK 4th & 12 at UK 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:56PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:41UK 4th & 10 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:21PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 42, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:43UK 4th & 13 at UK 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:51PSU 4th & 5 at UK 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−6.3
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:05UK 4th & 2 at UK 28, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:53PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−2.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:48UK 4th & 9 at PSU 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−11.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:24UK 4th & 1 at UK 28, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%−3.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:46UK 4th & 8 at UK 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−2.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:12PSU 4th & 7 at UK 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−11.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:01UK 4th & 6 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:56PSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:38UK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:35UK Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:37PSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:00PSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4073% → 73%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Miles SandersSimilar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.9%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 14:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
72.8%
Johnathan Thomas run for no gain to the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2FG
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5227% → 28%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
72.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 16 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
72.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the PnSt 17Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
72.4%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+8
72.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 8 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+28
72.2%
Miles Butler 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3172% → 72%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.3%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
72.1%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
71.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
71.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 71 yds, downed at the Kent 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0028% → 28%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
71.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+1
71.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 11Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+1
71.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 12Similar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
71.6%
Max Duffy punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:4772% → 70%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
71.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+23
71.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 23 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
71.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
71.9%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the Kent 31Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+9
71.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 9 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+3
71.1%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
71.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
71.6%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 6
OPP 15
-7
70.8%
Trace McSorley sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 22Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+40
69.5%
Jake Pinegar 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4030% → 30%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
70.1%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
70.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 23Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+5
70.0%
Terry Wilson run for 5 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
70.1%
Max Duffy punt for 67 yds, downed at the PnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:3369% → 62%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
69.0%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the PnSt 5Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-2
68.8%
McSorley, Trace pass complete to Johnson, Juwan for 15 yards to the PENNST20, PENALTY PENNST ineligible downfield on pass (Gonzalez, Steven) 2 yards to the PENNST3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+6
68.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Nick Bowers for 6 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 6
OWN 9
-7
67.8%
Trace McSorley sacked by Kash Daniel for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 2Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 13
OWN 2
+58
61.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 56 yds , Lynn Bowden Jr. returns for 58 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4863% → 70%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
62.8%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+20
62.8%
Trace McSorley run for 20 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
63.5%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+41
63.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 41 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Nick Bowers for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:1733% → 34%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+21
67.1%
Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 21 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
66.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+14
65.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 14 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
64.8%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
64.8%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for no gain to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-2
65.2%
Terry Wilson sacked by Kevin Givens for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
66.4%
Max Duffy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3366% → 65%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
66.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
66.0%
Journey Brown run for 4 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 6
OWN 18
-4
65.5%
Trace McSorley sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
64.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1536% → 36%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
50
0
63.6%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 10
50
0
63.6%
Asim Rose run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 10
50
0
64.2%
Terry Wilson run for no gain to the 50 yard line Terry Wilson fumbled, forced by Micah Parsons, recovered by Kent Adrian Middleton , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 10
50
0
64.4%
Max Duffy punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:2065% → 65%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
64.5%
Miles Sanders run for 11 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
64.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+12
64.3%
Trace McSorley run for 12 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
64.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-1
64.4%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+10
62.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 10 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
64.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by David Bouvier at the Kent 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:3837% → 37%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
62.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 13Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 14
OWN 13
-7
63.1%
Wilson, Terry pass complete to Bowden Jr., Lynn for 11 yards to the KENTUCKY24, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (Wolfe, Mason) 7 yards to the KENTUCKY6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 21
OWN 6
+15
63.4%
Terry Wilson run for 15 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-7
62.8%
Terry Wilson sacked by Shareef Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 14Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 13
OWN 14
+1
63.4%
Max Duffy punt for 39 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 1:5265% → 63%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
65.0%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Illegal Participation (5 Yards) to the Kent 47Similar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+12
65.4%
Trace McSorley run for 12 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
66.6%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
66.5%
Ricky Slade run for 12 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
66.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
66.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 5 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
62.9%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the Kent 18Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
62.7%
Jake Pinegar 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Josh AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4640% → 39%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
60.5%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
59.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to David Bouvier for 4 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
59.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 28Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
60.6%
Max Duffy punt for 65 yds, downed at the PnSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
59.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:2142% → 58%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
57.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 32 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
54.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+18
53.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 8 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Targeting (Cam Brown) to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST down. Cam Brown EjectedSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
53.8%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+9
53.7%
Terry Wilson run for 9 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
42.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:4443% → 38%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.0%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
43.3%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
42.8%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
42.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-4
40.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by T.J. Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+10
38.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 52 yds , Lynn Bowden Jr. returns for 10 yds to the Kent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 6:0459% → 78%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
41.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 10 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
40.2%
Terry Wilson sacked by Tariq Castro-Fields for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+10
40.7%
Terry Wilson run for 10 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
38.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
36.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 4 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+8
35.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 8 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+30
32.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 18 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Micah Parsons) to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
32.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
30.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 3
OPP 4
-6
30.7%
Tavin Richardson run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 10Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
22.2%
Miles Butler 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:1130% → 30%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
29.8%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+8
30.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 8 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
29.9%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Lonnie Johnson Jr. return for 24 yds to the Kent 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:5680% → 96%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+54
20.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 54 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
4.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:588% → 27%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
7.7%
KJ Hamler run for 11 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
7.7%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
7.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Justin Shorter for 12 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
7.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
7.0%
Ricky Slade run for 7 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+6
7.3%
Trace McSorley run for 6 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
6.9%
Trace McSorley run for 7 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+24
7.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 24 yds to the Kent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
7.7%
Ricky Slade run for 4 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.6%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0485% → 87%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
14.7%
Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
14.1%
Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+1
14.2%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
12.8%
Max Duffy punt for 32 yds, downed at the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:2421% → 44%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
21.4%
Trace McSorley sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-3
19.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+24
15.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 24 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
19.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 20 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
21.2%
Trace McSorley run for 6 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+18
43.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1172% → 70%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
27.1%
Terry Wilson sacked by Kevin Givens for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
28.4%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
30.1%
Max Duffy punt for 48 yds, downed at the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 3:3335% → 41%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Justin Shorter for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
33.5%
Ricky Slade run for 4 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+17
32.9%
Trace McSorley run for 17 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
37.0%
Trace McSorley sacked by DeAndre Square for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+25
31.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Nick Bowers for 25 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
38.2%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
38.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+13
34.5%
Miles Sanders run for 13 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
36.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
36.5%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
34.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
40.6%
Jake Pinegar 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 27PUNT
14 plays · 25 yds · 4:1173% → 93%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
24.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
22.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
15.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+6
11.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
10.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 46Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
10.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+3
8.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 6
50
0
6.7%
Max Duffy punt for 33 yds , KJ Hamler returns for no gain to the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:00
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+22.7
TD · Q4 13:37
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+18.9
TD · Q3 1:35
Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
-16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com