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TEX

Texas 28 at Georgia 21

UGA
2018 · Allstate Sugar Bowl · Jan 1, 2019 · Caesars Superdome
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:05 · Ryan Bujcevski punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense−3.7Pregame prior+25.1Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:53: Sam Ehlinger run for 9 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +8.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:03: Jake Fromm pass complete to Brian Herrien for 17 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +7.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:49: Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd for a TD (Sam Ehlinger pass to Collin Johnson for Two-Point Conversion) — TEX win probability +9.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:25: Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 3 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +12.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:14: Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 5 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +16.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 6TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 7:24UGA 4th & 9 at UGA 41, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:05TEX 4th & 4 at UGA 21, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:05TEX 4th & 17 at UGA 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:37TEX 4th & 8 at UGA 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:01UGA 4th & 19 at TEX 40, down 13
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:11TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 47, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:41UGA 4th & 5 at TEX 47, down 13
    Close callPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:53TEX 4th & 6 at UGA 47, up 13
    Close callPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:26UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 19, down 13
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00TEX 4th & 1 at UGA 13, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−3.9
    85% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−16.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:49TEX 4th & 1 at UGA 1, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−4.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−16.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:30TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:43UGA 4th & 14 at UGA 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:10TEX 4th & 5 at UGA 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:35TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53TEX Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:03UGA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:49TEX Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:25UGA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:14UGA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2018% → 21%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.6%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+19
81.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 19 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
81.3%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
81.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tre Watson for 4 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+16
81.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 16 yds to the Geo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
80.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 14 yds to the Geo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
80.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Geo 11Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
80.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Geo 10Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+8
80.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 8 yds to the Geo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 2 yds · 3:0479% → 77%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.3%
Elijah Holyfield run for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Elijah Holyfield for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
78.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 11 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
78.5%
D'Andre Swift run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 38Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+3
78.0%
Jake Fromm run for 3 yds to the Geo 41Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 9
OWN 41
-14
77.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the Geo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1923% → 24%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
76.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
76.6%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Geo 25Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+4
76.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the Geo 21Similar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+37
76.0%
Cameron Dicker 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5676% → 75%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
76.4%
Elijah Holyfield run for 5 yds to the Geo 40Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
76.3%
Elijah Holyfield run for 2 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-3
75.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 39Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
74.8%
Jake Camarda punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:3826% → 28%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
50
+8
73.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 8 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+6
73.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 6 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
73.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Geo 32Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-5
72.3%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Geo 37Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-1
71.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 38 Sam Ehlinger fumbled, recovered by Texas Sam EhlingerSimilar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 12
OPP 38
0
71.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 12
OPP 38
-5
72.4%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Geo 43Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 17
OPP 43
0
72.4%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0871% → 71%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
71.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+2
71.1%
D'Andre Swift run for 2 yds to the Geo 12 D'Andre Swift fumbled, forced by Ta'Quon Graham, recovered by Texas Gerald WilbonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:5229% → 38%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
70.9%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey pass complete to Sam Ehlinger for 8 yds to the Geo 4Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 4
-5
70.3%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Devonte Wyatt and Malik Herring for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 9Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
62.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 9 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3264% → 67%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.9%
Elijah Holyfield run for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
63.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 5 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
62.8%
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
62.3%
Brian Herrien run for 8 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+12
62.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 12 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
62.1%
Elijah Holyfield run for 7 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+9
61.7%
Elijah Holyfield run for 9 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
61.6%
D'Andre Swift run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
60.0%
Jake Fromm run for no gain to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+12
58.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 12 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
59.0%
D'Andre Swift run for no gain to the Texas 17Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
66.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Brian Herrien for 17 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:1734% → 46%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
65.0%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
64.7%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
62.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 17 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
60.7%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Geo 41Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+6
60.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 6 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
59.5%
Tre Watson run for 20 yds to the Geo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
59.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-2
58.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 17Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+4
57.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 4 yds to the Geo 13Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
54.5%
Cameron Dicker 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10PUNT
15 plays · 35 yds · 3:2955% → 52%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.5%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Jeremiah HollomanSimilar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.2%
Elijah Holyfield run for 9 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
54.1%
Elijah Holyfield run for 3 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
53.7%
D'Andre Swift run for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 34 D'Andre Swift fumbled, forced by B.J. Foster, recovered by Geo Lamont GaillardSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+24
51.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 24 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
53.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole HardmanSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
52.9%
Elijah Holyfield run for 4 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+7
52.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 7 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
54.3%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Jeremiah HollomanSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
54.1%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Jeremiah HollomanSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-9
52.1%
Jake Fromm sacked by Russell Hine for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 19
OPP 40
0
52.3%
Jake Camarda punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Lil'Jordan Humphrey at the Texas 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:3553% → 56%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
47.0%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+8
45.5%
Tre Watson run for 8 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 3
OWN 16
-1
43.9%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 15Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
44.0%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 52 yds, downed at the Geo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
46.6%
GEORGIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:0551% → 47%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
50.6%
Elijah Holyfield run for 11 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
51.4%
Elijah Holyfield run for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 49Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+2
49.9%
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+22
47.0%
Jake Fromm pass intercepted P.J. Locke III return for 22 yds to the Texas 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3460% → 61%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
40.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
40.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Andrew Beck for 5 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+3
39.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
39.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:2444% → 39%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
43.6%
Elijah Holyfield run for 11 yds to the Geo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
43.5%
D'Andre Swift run for 10 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
43.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 6 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
43.4%
D'Andre Swift run for 3 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
41.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Brian Herrien for 3 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
41.1%
Jake Fromm pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
40.4%
Brian Herrien run for 5 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
40.7%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to D'Andre SwiftSimilar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
38.7%
Jake Camarda punt for 41 yds, downed at the Texas 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
12 plays · 47 yds · 3:3766% → 75%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
34.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 5Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+6
33.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+6
32.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 6 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
29.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+8
28.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
28.0%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
26.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tre Watson for 2 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+10
26.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 10 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
25.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
24.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 4 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
23.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
24.7%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1931% → 29%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
31.3%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Jeremiah HollomanSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+3
30.8%
D'Andre Swift run for 3 yds to the Geo 14Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+5
28.8%
Jake Fromm run for 5 yds to the Geo 19Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
28.5%
Jake Camarda punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Lil'Jordan Humphrey at the Texas 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18TD
16 plays · 70 yds · 5:2677% → 97%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
22.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
21.4%
Tre Watson run for 13 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+35
19.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 35 yds to the Geo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
17.6%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Geo 18Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+2
17.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 2 yds to the Geo 16Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+3
16.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Geo 13Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
18.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Geo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
16.3%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Geo 16Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 15
OPP 16
0
16.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+5
16.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Geo 11Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+10
16.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 10 yds to the Geo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Geo 1Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Geo 1Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Geo 1Similar
Q4 11:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd for a TD (Sam Ehlinger pass to Collin Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:074% → 16%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
3.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 22 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
4.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 5 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+6
4.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 6 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
4.1%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+31
3.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 31 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 3 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:5191% → 93%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Andrew BeckSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
9.3%
Tre Watson run for 12 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
7.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
7.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-6
6.9%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Devonte Wyatt for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
6.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:418% → 7%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
7.5%
Jake Fromm sacked by Gary Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 11Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 14
OWN 11
0
6.6%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Tyler SimmonsSimilar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 14
OWN 11
0
6.5%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Tyler SimmonsSimilar
Q4 6:43
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
6.5%
Jake Camarda punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Lil'Jordan Humphrey at the Texas 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22MISSED FG
13 plays · 37 yds · 5:1894% → 98%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
6.0%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
5.3%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Texas 41Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
5.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 6 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
4.7%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
4.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+16
3.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 16 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
2.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-1
2.5%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 31Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+3
2.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 3 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+45
1.7%
Cameron Dicker 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 0:481% → 18%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
1.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 3 yds to the Geo 31 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards, Davante Davis ejected for targeting) to the Geo 46 for a 1ST down. Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
1.2%
TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Texas 39 for a 1ST down; Anthony Cook ejected for Targeting. Similar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
1.5%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Jeremiah HollomanSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-10
1.5%
GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+22
1.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 22 yds to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
1.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 17 yds to the Texas 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 5 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24Uncategorized
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:14
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 5 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+16
TD · Q4 10:25
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 3 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q4 11:49
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd for a TD (Sam Ehlinger pass to Collin Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)
-9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com