2018 · Rose Bowl Game · Jan 1, 2019 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreWASH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:27 · Drue Chrisman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:23: Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 19 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:23: J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:17: Myles Gaskin pass complete to Drew Sample for 2 yds for a TD OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +3.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:42: Myles Gaskin run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +6.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:42: Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Browning intercepted ) — WASH win probability +16.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 13:15OSU 4th & 17 at OSU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snapGo for it67.7%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.8%average punt
- Q1 11:49WASH 4th & 11 at WASH 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snapGo for it32.0%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%average punt
- Q1 9:37OSU 4th & 1 at WASH 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.8%71% to convertField goal67.5%−0.354% to makePunt67.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 7:40WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it30.4%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.4%average punt
- Q1 6:16OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 35, up 7Close callPunted · 69.6% before the snapGo for it69.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:19WASH 4th & 3 at OSU 21, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snapGo for it30.4%51% to convertField goalTheir call30.1%−0.374% to makePunt27.6%−2.8average punt
- Q2 9:50WASH 4th & 5 at OSU 48, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snapGo for it25.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.6%average punt
- Q2 7:52OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 27, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snapGo for it74.6%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.0%average punt
- Q2 4:26WASH 4th & 9 at OSU 37, down 11Close callPunted · 22.3% before the snapGo for it22.1%32% to convertField goal22.0%−0.140% to makePuntTheir call21.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:21OSU 4th & 9 at WASH 38, up 11Close callPunted · 79.6% before the snapGo for it79.4%−<0.132% to convertField goal79.4%38% to makePuntTheir call79.0%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:00WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 13, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snapGo for it18.3%−1.040% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.3%average punt
- Q3 10:25WASH 4th & 17 at OSU 43, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.1%−1.415% to convertField goal10.7%−0.928% to makePuntTheir call11.6%average punt
- Q3 3:08WASH 4th & 4 at OSU 22, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%47% to convertField goal1.5%−0.172% to makePunt-0.2%−1.8average punt
- Q3 1:55OSU 4th & 13 at OSU 20, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.519% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q4 12:17WASH 4th & 2 at OSU 2, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%48% to convertField goal0.9%−0.394% to makePunt-0.0%−1.2average punt
- Q4 10:27OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 31, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.1%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q4 9:00WASH 4th & 6 at OSU 48, down 18Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.2%average punt
- Q4 8:12OSU 4th & 8 at midfield, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.4%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q4 4:57OSU 4th & 12 at OSU 37, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snapGo for it92.7%−0.723% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.4%average punt
- Q4 3:49WASH 4th & 8 at WASH 17, down 11Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.2%32% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:50OSU 4th & 10 at OSU 47, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snapGo for it94.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WASH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:04OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.0%97% to makeGo for two69.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:23OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.4%97% to makeGo for two73.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:14OSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.2%97% to makeGo for two87.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:23OSU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:17WASH Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.9%97% to makeGo for two2.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:42WASH Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.8%97% to makeGo for two6.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 1:4568% → 68%
Q1 14:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-1
67.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 19Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-1
67.6%
Dwayne Haskins sacked by Ryan Bowman for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 18Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
67.5%
Drue Chrisman punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1133% → 32%
OSUDrive 3TD11 plays · 77 yds · 2:2668% → 70%
WASHDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0731% → 31%
OSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0970% → 69%
Q1 7:02
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+6
69.3%
Haskins, Dwayne pass complete to Dobbins, J.K. for 6 yards to the OHIOST37, PENALTY WASHINGTON substitution infraction 6 yards to the OHIOST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
69.3%
Drue Chrisman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6FG13 plays · 55 yds · 4:5131% → 33%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
69.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jordan Chin for 15 yds to the Wash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
69.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
68.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 5 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-10
68.4%
Browning, Jake rush for 14 yards to the OHIOST14, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding (Adams, Trey) 10 yards to the OHIOST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+9
69.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 9 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+8
69.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 8 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5668% → 75%
Q1 0:40
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+32
67.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 32 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+8
68.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Mike Weber for 8 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+8
68.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 8 yds to the Wash 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
69.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 4 yds to the Wash 14Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+19
74.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 19 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8PUNT12 plays · 27 yds · 2:2827% → 27%
Q2 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 5 yds to the Wash 30Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
73.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 6 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
73.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Ty Jones for 8 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+5
73.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Robert Landers) to the OhSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3875% → 74%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
74.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 1 yd to the OhSt 23Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
74.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for no gain to the OhSt 23Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+9
74.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 9 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+52
73.7%
Drue Chrisman punt for 52 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10PUNT10 plays · 43 yds · 3:1825% → 23%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.7%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Myles Gaskin WASHINGTON Penalty, Illegal Touching (Jared Hilbers) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
75.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 4 yds to the Wash 24Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+16
75.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 16 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
73.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 11 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
73.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for no gain to the OhSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 59 yds · 2:5676% → 79%
WASHDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:1622% → 20%
OSUDrive 13TD8 plays · 57 yds · 0:3980% → 86%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
80.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 10 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
80.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 19 yds to the Wash 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
81.5%
Haskins, Dwayne pass incomplete to Victor, Binjimen, PENALTY WASHINGTON pass interference (Miller, Jordan) 15 yards to the WASHINGTON13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
81.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Luke Farrell for 9 yds to the Wash 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Rashod Berry for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 32 yds · 4:2213% → 11%
Q3 11:08
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-7
86.1%
Jake Browning sacked by Jashon Cornell for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD7 plays · 80 yds · 1:5292% → 98%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
91.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 19 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
92.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 5 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+6
92.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 6 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
93.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 11 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+34
93.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 34 yds to the Wash 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17DOWNS13 plays · 56 yds · 5:043% → 2%
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
97.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 7 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
97.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 4 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+16
97.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Cade Otton for 16 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
97.5%
Jake Browning sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+9
98.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 9 yds to the OhSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
WASHDrive 19TD11 plays · 66 yds · 4:192% → 5%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
98.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 24 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-1
98.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Drew Sample for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 41Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+10
98.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 10 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
98.5%
Browning, Jake pass incomplete to Bryant, Hunter, PENALTY OHIOST holding (White, Brendon) 10 yards to the OHIOST21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+10
98.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for 10 yds to the OhSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
98.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 6 yds to the OhSt 2Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.0%
Myles Gaskin pass complete to Drew Sample for 2 yds for a TD OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4197% → 97%
Q4 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
97.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
96.9%
Haskins, Dwayne pass incomplete to Victor, Binjimen, PENALTY WASHINGTON offside (Potoa'e, Benning) 5 yards to the OHIOST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
97.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 2 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.0%
Drue Chrisman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 23 yds · 1:224% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3998% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 23TD4 plays · 66 yds · 1:183% → 11%
OSUDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3692% → 93%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
91.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 14 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-6
93.6%
Dwayne Haskins sacked by Ben Burr-Kirven for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 37Similar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
92.8%
Drue Chrisman punt for 48 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for no gain to the Wash 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:467% → 5%
OSUDrive 26PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:4396% → 96%
Q4 2:50
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+24
96.1%
Drue Chrisman punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OHIOST 29 WASHINGTON Penalty, Running Into Kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 27TD12 plays · 71 yds · 1:533% → 21%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
96.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 7 yds to the Wash 36Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+11
96.5%
Browning, Jake pass incomplete to Sample, Drew, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (White, Brendon) 11 yards to the WASHINGTON47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+17
96.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 17 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
95.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 3 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+9
95.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 9 yds to the OhSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
95.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 13 yds to the OhSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+2
95.3%
Browning, Jake pass incomplete to Jones, Ty, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Okudah, Jeffrey) 2 yards to the OHIOST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q4 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.3%
Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Browning intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:42
Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Browning intercepted )
-16
TD · Q4 6:42
Myles Gaskin run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)
-6.6
TD · Q2 12:23
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 19 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
+6.1