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LSU

LSU 40 at UCF 32

UCF
2018 · PlayStation Fiesta Bowl · Jan 1, 2019 · State Farm Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.4UCF 3.3%Cole Tracy 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 40 - HOME 24 · Q4 4:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:12 · Cole Tracy 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Home team on offense−46.3Pregame prior−0.9Score differential−17.8Garbage-time factor−10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:04: Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +9.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:38: Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 32 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +11.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:18: Cole Tracy 28 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:09: Cole Tracy 28 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:24: Taj McGowan run for 2 yds for a TD (Darriel Mack Jr. pass to Otis Anderson for Two-Point Conversion) — UCF win probability +7.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:38LSU 4th & 6 at UCF 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:55LSU 4th & 1 at UCF 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−0.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−3.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:13UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:50UCF 4th & 5 at LSU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:00LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:57LSU 4th & 10 at UCF 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:10UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:53UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:18LSU 4th & 6 at UCF 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−8.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:56UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:01UCF 4th & 10 at LSU 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−4.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:09LSU 4th & 10 at UCF 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−9.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:24UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 42, down 13
    Close callPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:12LSU 4th & 8 at UCF 8, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:39LSU 4th & 6 at UCF 39, up 8
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:56UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:39UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:27LSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:59LSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:11LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:04UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:38LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:24UCF Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.9%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5764% → 63%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
36.3%
Nick Brossette run for 11 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
36.4%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 6Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
36.6%
Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-5
36.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Saahdiq Charles) to the UCF 6Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
36.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Nick BrossetteSimilar
Q1 12:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
36.8%
Cole Tracy 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:2937% → 39%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
37.0%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+23
37.2%
Marlon Williams pass complete to Darriel Mack Jr. for 23 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
37.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
37.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+9
37.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 9 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
38.7%
Greg McCrae run for 25 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3INT TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:1162% → 56%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
38.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 14 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Nevelle Clarke) to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
38.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin Jefferson, broken up by Brandon MooreSimilar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
38.0%
Joe Burrow run for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+17
38.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 17 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
38.5%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+6
38.6%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+4
39.1%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
39.0%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
39.3%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick Dillon, broken up by Rashard CauseySimilar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+93
42.0%
Joe Burrow pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Moore return for 93 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
43.7%
UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nate Evans) to the UCF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:5357% → 59%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
42.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+15
43.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
50
+11
43.0%
Joe Burrow run for 11 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
43.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
44.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin Jefferson, broken up by Nevelle ClarkeSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+9
44.9%
Joe Burrow sacked by Kyle Gibson for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 47 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Randy Charlton) to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
44.5%
Nick Brossette run for 5 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
44.6%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Trysten Hill) to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
44.7%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
45.7%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+1
46.6%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
40.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 22 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5FUMBLE
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:1843% → 45%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.0%
Marlon Williams run for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
43.6%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
43.4%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-1
43.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Michael Colubiale for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+15
43.3%
Mack Jr., Darriel pass incomplete to Davis, Gabriel, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Alexander, Terrence) 15 yards to the UCF44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
44.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 37 Darriel Mack Jr. fumbled, forced by Devin White, recovered by LSU Michael Divinity Jr. LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Terrence Alexander) to the LSU 37. Alexander ejected.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 2:0157% → 62%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
43.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+10
42.9%
Joe Burrow run for 10 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
42.4%
Joe Burrow sacked by Eric Mitchell for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+6
43.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 6 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+49
38.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 49 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4040% → 39%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
40.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
40.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
39.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
39.0%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 58 yds, downed at the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:5360% → 69%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
39.7%
Justin Jefferson run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 17Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+19
40.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 19 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
39.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+9
38.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 9 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
38.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 8 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
38.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+5
38.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
37.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Targeting (Kyle Gibson) to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down. Gibson ejected.Similar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
36.6%
Burrow, Joe pass complete to Edwards-Helaire, Clyde for 17 yards to the UCF6, PENALTY LSU holding (Charles, Saahdiq) 10 yards to the UCF33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+33
30.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 33 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:1232% → 32%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
31.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 20 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
32.9%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+22
32.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 7 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Targeting (Grant Delpit) to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down. Delpit ejected.Similar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
33.6%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for no gain to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-6
33.5%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by JaCoby Stevens and Glen Logan for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 16
OPP 42
+11
32.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 11 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 5
OPP 31
0
32.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Michael Colubiale, broken up by JaCoby StevensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4369% → 68%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
31.2%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
31.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Clyde Edwards-HelaireSimilar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
31.5%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+33
32.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 23 LSU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Devin White) to the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -21 yds · 0:3331% → 30%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
30.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 13
OWN 13
-22
29.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by Patrick Queen for a loss of 22 yards to the UCF 13 UCF Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Darriel Mack Jr.) to the UCF 13Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 35
OWN 13
+4
29.0%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 31
OWN 17
0
30.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Justin Jefferson at the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:1370% → 71%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
30.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 15 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
29.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 14 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
28.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
28.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
29.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
29.4%
Josh Growden punt for 33 yds, downed at the UCF 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
13 plays · 95 yds · 1:4730% → 42%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+16
30.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 16 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
29.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 17 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
30.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by Rashard Lawrence for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+10
29.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 10 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+5
29.5%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Rashard Lawrence) to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+12
30.3%
Greg McCrae run for 12 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
31.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+16
31.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 16 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
33.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Greg McCrae for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-6
32.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by Rashard Lawrence for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 14
OPP 32
+32
42.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
40.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3941% → 40%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
43.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 14:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
41.5%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Otis Anderson, broken up by Todd Harris Jr.Similar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
39.6%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 42 yds , Justin Jefferson returns for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:2361% → 73%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
39.1%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+16
40.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 16 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
38.0%
Nick Brossette run for 24 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
26.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 32 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3628% → 26%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.9%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
28.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
27.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
26.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Justin Jefferson at the LSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18FG
18 plays · 69 yds · 6:2772% → 86%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
28.1%
Joe Burrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+5
28.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+14
28.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 14 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
26.3%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Garrett Brumfield) to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+11
27.7%
Nick Brossette run for 11 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
26.0%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+7
26.3%
Joe Burrow run for 7 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
25.7%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Jefferson, Justin, PENALTY UCF pass interference (Causey, Rashard) 15 yards to the UCF30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
25.4%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Pat Jasinski) to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+11
25.1%
Nick Brossette run for 11 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
24.2%
Brossette, Nick rush for 5 yards to the UCF9, PENALTY LSU illegal formation 5 yards to the UCF19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+3
22.6%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 12
OPP 16
0
21.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Jacob PhillipsSimilar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+11
22.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 11 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-5
22.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Damien Lewis) to the UCF 10Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
14.5%
Cole Tracy 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1521% → 20%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
20.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by Glen Logan and Tyler Shelvin for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+54
19.6%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 54 yds , Justin Jefferson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 20 Justin Jefferson fumbled, recovered by UCF Jacob HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20FG
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5225% → 25%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
25.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Michael ColubialeSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
24.8%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-5
23.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Jordan Johnson) to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
22.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
24.6%
Matthew Wright 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 5:3679% → 95%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
20.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-3
20.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+37
21.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 37 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
16.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 15 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
15.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+10
16.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 10 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
14.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
15.0%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
13.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q4 12:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
5.3%
Cole Tracy 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:3916% → 16%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
16.3%
Mack Jr., Darriel pass incomplete to Davis, Gabriel, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Kirklin, Jontre) 15 yards to the UCF40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
17.0%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
17.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
16.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
16.2%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Justin Jefferson at the LSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23FG
13 plays · 78 yds · 7:0595% → 97%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
4.9%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+6
4.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 6 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+10
3.9%
Nick Brossette run for 10 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
3.6%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+9
3.1%
Nick Brossette run for 9 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
2.8%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+6
2.7%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+42
2.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 42 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
1.8%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
1.8%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
1.6%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 4:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
3.3%
Cole Tracy 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 1:483% → 11%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.9%
UCF Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
2.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
2.7%
Mack Jr., Darriel pass sacked for loss of 15 yards to the UCF5 (Thornton, Ray;Phillips, Jacob), PENALTY LSU face mask (Phillips, Jacob) 15 yards to the UCF35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
2.7%
LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Phillips) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
50
0
2.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
50
+8
2.7%
Otis Anderson run for 8 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+12
3.1%
Otis Anderson run for 12 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
3.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-5
3.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+11
3.0%
Greg McCrae run for 11 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+22
3.1%
Greg McCrae run for 22 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
4.0%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the LSU 2Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
4.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 2:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.1%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds for a TD (Darriel Mack Jr. pass to Otis Anderson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:4198% → 98%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
2.4%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+3
1.9%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+2
1.4%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 1
OPP 34
-5
1.8%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
1.7%
Josh Growden punt for 27 yds, downed at the UCF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:154% → 4%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
3.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
3.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+1
3.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass intercepted JaCoby Stevens return for 1 yd to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:38
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 32 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q2 0:04
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+9.4
FG · Q4 12:09
Cole Tracy 28 yd FG GOOD
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com