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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreLSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:50 · Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Michael Colubiale, broken up by JaCoby Stevens
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:04: Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +9.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:38: Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 32 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK) — LSU win probability +11.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:18: Cole Tracy 28 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:09: Cole Tracy 28 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:24: Taj McGowan run for 2 yds for a TD (Darriel Mack Jr. pass to Otis Anderson for Two-Point Conversion) — UCF win probability +7.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:38LSU 4th & 6 at UCF 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snapGo for it66.7%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call66.8%91% to makePunt66.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:55LSU 4th & 1 at UCF 23, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.5%71% to convertField goal55.7%−0.870% to makePunt53.3%−3.2average punt
- Q2 12:13UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snapGo for it35.2%−1.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.5%average punt
- Q2 4:50UCF 4th & 5 at LSU 31, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.9%41% to convertField goal28.7%−0.254% to makePunt27.7%−1.2average punt
- Q2 4:00LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 29, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snapGo for it68.9%−1.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.0%average punt
- Q2 1:57LSU 4th & 10 at UCF 38, up 10Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snapGo for it72.0%30% to convertField goal72.0%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call71.8%−0.2average punt
- Q3 14:10UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 33, down 3Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it38.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:53UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it24.4%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.7%average punt
- Q3 5:18LSU 4th & 6 at UCF 10, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.2% before the snapGo for it76.3%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call76.7%88% to makePunt68.0%−8.7average punt
- Q3 3:56UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 25, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it17.7%−1.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.0%average punt
- Q3 3:01UCF 4th & 10 at LSU 20, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snapGo for it18.0%−0.928% to convertField goalTheir call18.9%75% to makePunt14.4%−4.5average punt
- Q4 12:09LSU 4th & 10 at UCF 10, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snapGo for it78.8%−1.524% to convertField goalTheir call80.3%88% to makePunt70.9%−9.4average punt
- Q4 11:24UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 42, down 13Close callPunted · 15.3% before the snapGo for it14.0%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:12LSU 4th & 8 at UCF 8, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snapGo for it93.9%−0.626% to convertField goalTheir call94.5%90% to makePunt89.4%−5.1average punt
- Q4 0:39LSU 4th & 6 at UCF 39, up 8Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.8%−<0.140% to convertField goal94.9%36% to makePuntTheir call94.1%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:56UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.8%97% to makeGo for two34.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:39UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.3%97% to makeGo for two39.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:27LSU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.0%97% to makeGo for two60.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:59LSU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.5%97% to makeGo for two62.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:11LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.7%97% to makeGo for two69.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:04UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.9%97% to makeGo for two37.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:38LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.8%97% to makeGo for two72.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:24UCF Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick7.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call6.9%−0.945% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLSUDrive 1FG7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5764% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD7 plays · 69 yds · 1:2937% → 39%
Q1 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+23
37.2%
Marlon Williams pass complete to Darriel Mack Jr. for 23 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3INT TD12 plays · 60 yds · 4:1162% → 56%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
38.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 14 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Nevelle Clarke) to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
38.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin Jefferson, broken up by Brandon MooreSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+17
38.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 17 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
39.3%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick Dillon, broken up by Rashard CauseySimilar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+93
42.0%
Joe Burrow pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Moore return for 93 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD13 plays · 67 yds · 4:5357% → 59%
Q1 5:42
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+15
43.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
44.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin Jefferson, broken up by Nevelle ClarkeSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+9
44.9%
Joe Burrow sacked by Kyle Gibson for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 47 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Randy Charlton) to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
40.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 22 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5FUMBLE7 plays · 19 yds · 1:1843% → 45%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-1
43.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Michael Colubiale for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+15
43.3%
Mack Jr., Darriel pass incomplete to Davis, Gabriel, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Alexander, Terrence) 15 yards to the UCF44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
44.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 37 Darriel Mack Jr. fumbled, forced by Devin White, recovered by LSU Michael Divinity Jr. LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Terrence Alexander) to the LSU 37. Alexander ejected.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD5 plays · 63 yds · 2:0157% → 62%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
42.4%
Joe Burrow sacked by Eric Mitchell for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+6
43.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 6 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+49
38.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 49 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4040% → 39%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
40.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD11 plays · 78 yds · 4:5360% → 69%
Q2 11:22
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+19
40.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 19 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+9
38.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 9 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
38.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 8 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
37.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Targeting (Kyle Gibson) to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down. Gibson ejected.Similar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
36.6%
Burrow, Joe pass complete to Edwards-Helaire, Clyde for 17 yards to the UCF6, PENALTY LSU holding (Charles, Saahdiq) 10 yards to the UCF33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+33
30.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 33 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9DOWNS8 plays · 44 yds · 2:1232% → 32%
Q2 6:27
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+22
32.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 7 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Targeting (Grant Delpit) to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down. Delpit ejected.Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-6
33.5%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by JaCoby Stevens and Glen Logan for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 16
OPP 42
+11
32.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 11 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 5
OPP 31
0
32.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Michael Colubiale, broken up by JaCoby StevensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4369% → 68%
Q2 4:00
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+33
32.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 23 LSU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Devin White) to the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -21 yds · 0:3331% → 30%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
30.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 13
OWN 13
-22
29.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by Patrick Queen for a loss of 22 yards to the UCF 13 UCF Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Darriel Mack Jr.) to the UCF 13Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 31
OWN 17
0
30.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Justin Jefferson at the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 29 yds · 1:1370% → 71%
UCFDrive 13TD13 plays · 95 yds · 1:4730% → 42%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+16
30.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 16 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
29.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 17 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
30.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by Rashard Lawrence for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+16
31.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 16 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
33.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Greg McCrae for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-6
32.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by Rashard Lawrence for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 14
OPP 32
+32
42.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3941% → 40%
LSUDrive 16TD5 plays · 73 yds · 1:2361% → 73%
UCFDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3628% → 26%
Q3 11:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
26.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Justin Jefferson at the LSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18FG18 plays · 69 yds · 6:2772% → 86%
Q3 11:02
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+5
28.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+14
28.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 14 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
25.7%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Jefferson, Justin, PENALTY UCF pass interference (Causey, Rashard) 15 yards to the UCF30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
24.2%
Brossette, Nick rush for 5 yards to the UCF9, PENALTY LSU illegal formation 5 yards to the UCF19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+11
22.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 11 yds to the UCF 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19FUMBLE5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1521% → 20%
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
20.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by Glen Logan and Tyler Shelvin for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+54
19.6%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 54 yds , Justin Jefferson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 20 Justin Jefferson fumbled, recovered by UCF Jacob HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20FG6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5225% → 25%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21FG11 plays · 62 yds · 5:3679% → 95%
Q3 1:19
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+37
21.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 37 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
16.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 15 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+10
16.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 10 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:3916% → 16%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
16.3%
Mack Jr., Darriel pass incomplete to Davis, Gabriel, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Kirklin, Jontre) 15 yards to the UCF40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
16.2%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Justin Jefferson at the LSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23FG13 plays · 78 yds · 7:0595% → 97%
Q4 6:16
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+42
2.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 42 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24TD15 plays · 75 yds · 1:483% → 11%
Q4 3:58
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
2.7%
Mack Jr., Darriel pass sacked for loss of 15 yards to the UCF5 (Thornton, Ray;Phillips, Jacob), PENALTY LSU face mask (Phillips, Jacob) 15 yards to the UCF35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
2.7%
LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Phillips) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.1%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds for a TD (Darriel Mack Jr. pass to Otis Anderson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 1:4198% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:154% → 4%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:38
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 32 yds for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q2 0:04
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+9.4
FG · Q4 12:09
Cole Tracy 28 yd FG GOOD
-8.6