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MSST

Mississippi State 22 at Iowa 27

IOWA
2018 · Outback Bowl · Jan 1, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:23 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:18: Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 15 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +9.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:26: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MSST win probability +13.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:08: Nick Fitzgerald run for 33 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +17.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:55: Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 8 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +22.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:51: Miguel Recinos 40 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +10.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:33MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:27IOWA 4th & 22 at IOWA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:10MSST 4th & 2 at IOWA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    64.1%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:37MSST 4th & 2 at IOWA 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:39IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:45MSST 4th & 9 at IOWA 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:02IOWA 4th & 3 at MSST 26, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.9%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:06MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:14MSST 4th & 16 at IOWA 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:58IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:05IOWA 4th & 12 at MSST 47, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−2.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:30IOWA 4th & 1 at MSST 11, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%−5.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−21.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:34MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 30, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:44IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 19, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−3.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:04MSST 4th & 3 at IOWA 3, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%−3.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−19.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:33IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:51IOWA 4th & 2 at MSST 22, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%−2.9
    72% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−24.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:06MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.9 ptsPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%−6.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:22IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 24, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−1.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:25MSST 4th & 5 at IOWA 32, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−9.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−8.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 7:55IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:18IOWA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:26MSST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:08MSST Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:55IOWA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0770% → 70%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
29.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+2
30.0%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
30.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
30.4%
Tucker Day punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kyle Groeneweg at the Iowa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:5830% → 31%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
30.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 26Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+1
30.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 13
OWN 27
-9
30.9%
Nate Stanley sacked by Chauncey Rivers and Jeffery Simmons for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 18Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 22
OWN 18
0
31.1%
Colten Rastetter punt for 47 yds , Malik Dear returns for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:4069% → 67%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
31.2%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+16
31.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 16 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
31.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 4 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
31.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+4
31.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+3
32.1%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
31.6%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
31.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+1
32.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 1 yd to the Iowa 26Similar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+44
32.7%
Jace Christmann 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4133% → 33%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
33.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 28Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+5
32.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 5 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+2
32.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 2 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
32.8%
Colten Rastetter punt for 12 yds , Aaron Brule returns for no gain to the Iowa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FG
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:4667% → 68%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
32.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
32.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+4
33.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
32.9%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+4
32.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
32.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 30Similar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 15
OPP 30
0
33.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+6
33.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 6 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
33.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
32.1%
Jace Christmann 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 5:2833% → 38%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.2%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+12
33.1%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 24 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
33.7%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
34.4%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for no gain to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+9
33.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
34.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 2 yds to the IOWA 48 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
36.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
36.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+7
35.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 7 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
38.1%
Miguel Recinos 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4664% → 64%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
35.2%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
34.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Devonta JasonSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-1
35.2%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
35.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
36.4%
Tucker Day punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kyle Groeneweg at the Iowa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
44.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 75 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:4455% → 54%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
44.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-3
44.8%
Nick Gibson run for 12 yds to the MisSt 34 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Nick Gibson) to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 13
OWN 19
-6
45.6%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 13 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, forced by A.J. Epenesa, recovered by IowaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:3748% → 58%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
48.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Toren Young for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+15
58.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 15 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 4:5444% → 36%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
55.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
56.5%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
58.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
58.3%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
59.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
59.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 2 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+1
60.2%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 7
OPP 36
-9
60.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Iowa 36 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Iowa 46Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 16
OPP 46
0
63.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
64.3%
Tucker Day punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1165% → 63%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
65.0%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
65.0%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
64.0%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
63.2%
Colten Rastetter punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2338% → 35%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
62.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
62.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-10
63.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tommy Champion) to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 20
OWN 37
+8
65.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 8 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14INT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:2262% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
62.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
65.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the Iowa 43Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+12
66.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 12 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
67.4%
Nate Stanley sacked by Montez Sweat and Johnathan Abram for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+46
67.1%
Nate Stanley pass intercepted Willie Gay Jr. return for 46 yds to the Iowa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0539% → 52%
Q3 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
61.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Iowa 6Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
61.5%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the Iowa 1Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
34.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 33 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:5041% → 42%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
40.7%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
42.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Toren Young for 3 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+15
44.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mark McLaurin) to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
46.3%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-5
46.6%
Nate Stanley sacked by Jeffery Simmons and Willie Gay Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
43.5%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
41.5%
Colten Rastetter punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 3:1660% → 61%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
40.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 19Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+10
41.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
39.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
38.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
38.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+4
38.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Chauncey Golston return for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:3550% → 70%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
50.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 12 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
50.6%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
50.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 7 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+2
48.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 2 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+3
47.1%
Nate Stanley run for 3 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
69.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 8 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1534% → 31%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.7%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
65.7%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
66.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q3 0:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
68.8%
Tucker Day punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4465% → 63%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
65.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 19Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
65.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Mekhi SargentSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
63.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. HockensonSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+9
63.0%
Colten Rastetter punt for 42 yds , Malik Dear returns for 9 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22FG
5 plays · 49 yds · 2:2737% → 44%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+51
63.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 51 yds to the Iowa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
60.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 2Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
61.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 3Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
64.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Iowa 3Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
55.8%
Jace Christmann 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1962% → 60%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.1%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 26Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
62.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Mekhi SargentSimilar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
60.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 4 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
60.1%
Colten Rastetter punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24INT
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:3642% → 48%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+34
57.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 34 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
51.7%
Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+3
51.7%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Iowa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+28
52.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Jake Gervase return for 28 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25FG
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:3465% → 85%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
64.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 20 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
68.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 22 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
71.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 4 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
71.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Mekhi Sargent for 4 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
74.3%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
84.6%
Miguel Recinos 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4021% → 19%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Aeris WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.4%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
78.4%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
80.9%
Tucker Day punt for 54 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 4 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3086% → 88%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
85.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+2
87.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 2 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+1
88.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 1 yd to the Iowa 24Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
87.6%
Colten Rastetter punt for 45 yds, downed at the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:4815% → 15%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
85.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 7 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+7
82.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 7 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
83.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
84.1%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+15
85.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 15 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
82.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
83.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+5
84.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 5 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
85.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
94.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:55
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 8 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)
+22.4
TD · Q3 11:08
Nick Fitzgerald run for 33 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
-17.9
TD · Q3 11:26
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com