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CIN

Cincinnati 35 at Virginia Tech 31

VT
2018 · Postseason · Dec 31, 2018 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:53 · Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior−9.5Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:16: Michael Warren II run for 40 yds for a TD (Ryan Jones KICK) — CIN win probability +14.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:52: Ryan Willis pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +21.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:44: Hayden Moore run for 19 yds for a TD (Ryan Jones KICK) — CIN win probability +27.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:32: Ryan Willis run for 5 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +29.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:29: Michael Warren II run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Jones KICK) — CIN win probability +52.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:25VT 4th & 2 at CIN 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:34VT 4th & 5 at VT 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:36CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:42CIN 4th & 10 at VT 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53VT 4th & 4 at VT 8, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:10CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:23VT 4th & 12 at CIN 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:04CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:21VT 4th & 1 at CIN 10, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%−3.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−12.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:07VT 4th & 6 at VT 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:05CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 29, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−3.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:48VT 4th & 1 at CIN 3, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.7%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−7.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−27.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:44CIN 4th & 8 at VT 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:45VT 4th & 6 at VT 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−3.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:22VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:46CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:04VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:16CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:52VT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:44CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:32VT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:29CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:1838% → 41%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
37.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 6 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
37.8%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
38.1%
Steven Peoples run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
50
+6
38.3%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-10
38.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VTech 46Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+13
38.6%
Ryan Willis run for 13 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-1
38.9%
Deshawn McClease run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+20
39.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 20 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
39.6%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
39.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+21
41.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 21 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3059% → 61%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
40.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
40.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Kyle Trout) to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+2
41.5%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+26
41.8%
Michael Warren II run for 26 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
41.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jerron RollinsSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
41.7%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+38
39.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Charles McClelland for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4640% → 40%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
40.1%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
40.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-1
40.2%
Ryan Willis sacked by Marquise Copeland and Bryan Wright for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 27Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+4
39.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 48 yds , Aulden Knight returns for 4 yds to the Cincy 31 CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
13 plays · 44 yds · 4:4360% → 59%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
40.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 14 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
40.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
39.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
40.0%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
40.8%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
40.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+2
40.9%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+22
41.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 22 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
40.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Garrett Campbell) to the VTech 47Similar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 20
OPP 47
0
40.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+10
40.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Michael Warren II for 10 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
40.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Michael Warren IISimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
41.5%
James Smith punt for 35 yds, downed at the VTech 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3842% → 42%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
42.2%
Steven Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 1Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+6
42.4%
Ryan Willis run for 6 yds to the VTech 7Similar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+1
41.9%
Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the VTech 8Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 4
OWN 8
0
41.7%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:0960% → 65%
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
50
+8
40.5%
Tavion Thomas run for 8 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+1
40.4%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
40.7%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
40.7%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+32
40.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 32 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.4%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the VTech 1Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.0%
Michael Warren II run for no gain Michael Warren II fumbled, forced by Dax Hollifield, recovered by Cincy Kahlil Lewis for a TD (Ryan Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 4:0437% → 51%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
37.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
37.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 7 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
38.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 4 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
38.5%
Deshawn McClease run for 9 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
39.1%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
39.1%
Deshawn McClease run for 6 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
39.3%
Steven Peoples run for 3 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+23
39.6%
Tre Turner run for 23 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
40.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Dalton KeeneSimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
40.1%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q2 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.3%
Steven Peoples run for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.9%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 4:4355% → 53%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
45.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 7Similar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 5
OWN 7
-3
45.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Garrett Campbell) to the Cincy 4Similar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 8
OWN 4
+5
45.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 5 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+2
45.9%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 1
OWN 11
-5
45.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 6Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+6
47.0%
Hayden Moore run for 6 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
45.6%
Michael Warren II run for 10 yds to the Cincy 30 Michael Warren II fumbled, recovered by Cincy Kahlil Lewis for a 1ST down , return for 8 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
45.0%
Tavion Thomas run for no gain to the Cincy 30 Tavion Thomas fumbled, recovered by Cincy Hayden MooreSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
45.3%
Hayden Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
45.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 6
OWN 34
-2
46.8%
James Smith punt for 40 yds , Bryce Watts returns for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 1:3449% → 49%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
48.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
50
+17
51.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 17 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
53.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 12 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+1
52.2%
Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+6
50.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Phil Patterson for 6 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 7
OPP 18
-5
50.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+41
49.0%
Brian Johnson 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
45.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4456% → 54%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
43.8%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
42.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Malick MbodjSimilar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
44.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Michael Warren IISimilar
Q3 14:04
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+6
46.0%
James Smith punt for 47 yds , Bryce Watts returns for 6 yds to the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:3649% → 56%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
48.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 19 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
50.9%
Ryan Willis run for 9 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
52.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 6 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+26
52.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 26 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
53.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Braxton Pfaff) to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+10
52.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 10 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-4
53.7%
Deshawn McClease run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 18Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+8
52.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Deshawn McClease for 8 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+28
56.4%
Brian Johnson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 0:5447% → 64%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
52.8%
Michael Warren II run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
50
0
50.0%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
50
+9
50.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 9 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+1
50.0%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
50.2%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
36.2%
Michael Warren II run for 40 yds for a TD (Ryan Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0340% → 38%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
42.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 9 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
43.2%
Deshawn McClease run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 39Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+5
40.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 5 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
41.0%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
38.4%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5763% → 61%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
37.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
37.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Michael Warren IISimilar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
39.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Charles McClelland for 9 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
39.2%
James Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bryce Watts at the VTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16TD
15 plays · 72 yds · 4:0740% → 65%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
39.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 8 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+8
42.3%
Jalen Holston run for 8 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
42.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
40.8%
Jalen Holston run for 13 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
44.0%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
42.5%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+14
41.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jalen Holston for 14 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
45.0%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
43.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+18
40.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 18 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
43.1%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the Cincy 4Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
43.2%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 8Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
41.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cameron Jefferies) to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
43.3%
Jalen Holston run for no gain to the Cincy 2Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5741% → 73%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.3%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
59.0%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 0:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+20
60.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Trent Cloud for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
50
+3
54.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 3 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-5
54.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Kyle Trout) to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+6
57.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Trent Cloud for 6 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 14:29
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+10
57.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dax Hollifield) to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
56.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Trent CloudSimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
56.5%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+9
57.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Trent Cloud for 9 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
54.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 6 yds to the VTech 19Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
27.5%
Hayden Moore run for 19 yds for a TD (Ryan Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:4542% → 73%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
41.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+2
37.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 2 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+47
43.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 40 yds to the VATECH 13 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Targeting (Tyrell Gilbert) to the Cincy 6 for a 1ST down. Gilbert ejected.Similar
Q4 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
44.0%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.1%
Ryan Willis run for 5 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2736% → 35%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.7%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
64.1%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
65.4%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Dylan Rivers return for 18 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5173% → 69%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
73.4%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
73.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Dalton KeeneSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+7
72.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 7 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-13
69.4%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 13 yards to the Cincy 16 Ryan Willis fumbled, recovered by Cincy Bryan WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:5737% → 37%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
62.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 11 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
62.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
63.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Kyle Trout) to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+16
64.0%
Hayden Moore run for 16 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
60.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Caleb Farley) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
50
0
56.6%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 10
50
+2
58.6%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
58.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 6:44
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
62.6%
James Smith punt for 46 yds, downed at the VTech 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3769% → 73%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
68.5%
Jalen Holston run for 7 yds to the VTech 9Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+5
68.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cortez Broughton) to the VTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
70.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 5 yds to the VTech 19Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
70.3%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 3
OWN 21
-10
69.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Dalton Keene) to the VTech 11Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 13
OWN 11
+7
72.1%
Ryan Willis run for 7 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+2
72.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 48 yds , Aulden Knight returns for 2 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:0737% → 93%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+31
63.2%
Michael Warren II run for 31 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
56.1%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+10
60.4%
Hayden Moore run for 10 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
59.4%
Michael Warren II run for 12 yds to the VTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
6.8%
Michael Warren II run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:4125% → 24%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
24.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 8 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
26.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Hezekiah GrimsleySimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+15
24.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cameron Jefferies) to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
26.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Hezekiah GrimsleySimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-4
24.2%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted James Wiggins return for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
6.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:29
Michael Warren II run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Jones KICK)
-52.6
TD · Q4 10:32
Ryan Willis run for 5 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
+29.1
TD · Q4 12:44
Hayden Moore run for 19 yds for a TD (Ryan Jones KICK)
-27.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com