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Oklahoma 34 at Alabama 45

ALA
2018 · Capital One Orange Bowl - CFP Semifinal · Dec 29, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:10 · Kyler Murray pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 10 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior+8.2Home team on offense+25.0Score differential+9.4Garbage-time factor+6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.8Time remaining+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:03: Charleston Rambo 49 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +8.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:08: DeVonta Smith 10 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +6.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:31: CeeDee Lamb 10 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +6.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:08: Jerry Jeudy 13 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:23: Kyler Murray 8 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +6.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:51OU 4th & 16 at OU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:08OU 4th & 15 at OU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:05OU 4th & 4 at OU 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:44ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:40OU 4th & 2 at ALA 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:30OU 4th & 5 at ALA 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:25ALA 4th & 6 at OU 20, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:42OU 4th & 6 at ALA 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:06ALA 4th & 10 at OU 47, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:10OU 4th & 5 at OU 25, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:54ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:54ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:33ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:01ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:48OU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:03OU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:08ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:31OU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:08ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:23OU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5185% → 85%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
85.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 50 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
85.0%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Okla 24Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
84.9%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Okla 20Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+15
84.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for 15 yds to the Okla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
84.7%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Okla 1Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.6%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Okla 1Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.0%
Damien Harris 1 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5915% → 15%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
84.8%
Kyler Murray run for 3 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-4
84.7%
Kyler Murray sacked by Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 25Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 11
OWN 25
-5
84.8%
Kyler Murray sacked by Christian Miller for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 20Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
84.8%
Austin Seibert punt for 35 yds, downed at the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:5185% → 87%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
84.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+1
85.0%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
84.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 7 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+13
84.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 13 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
85.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 11 yds to the Okla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
84.9%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Okla 8Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 4
OPP 8
-2
84.9%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Kenneth Murray and Curtis Bolton for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 10Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
86.8%
Henry Ruggs III 10 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:3214% → 14%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
86.1%
Kyler Murray run for 8 yds to the Okla 23Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+3
86.1%
Trey Sermon run for 3 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
86.1%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Marquise BrownSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
86.2%
Trey Sermon run for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 21Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 15
OWN 21
0
86.2%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Marquise BrownSimilar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 15
OWN 21
0
86.4%
Austin Seibert punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:1287% → 91%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
87.1%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+40
87.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 40 yds to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
87.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 10 yds to the Okla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
87.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Okla 1Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.5%
Damien Harris 1 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2010% → 9%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
90.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 18 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
90.3%
Kennedy Brooks run for 9 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-3
90.0%
Kyler Murray run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 48Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
90.5%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Myles TeaseSimilar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
90.8%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Myles TeaseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 2:0091% → 96%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
91.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jalen Hurts for 9 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+8
91.1%
Josh Jacobs run for 8 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
91.3%
Josh Jacobs run for no gain to the Okla 31Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
91.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 4 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+27
95.8%
Josh Jacobs 27 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:574% → 8%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
95.6%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Carson Meier for 39 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
95.4%
Kennedy Brooks run for 2 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+32
95.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 32 yds to the Alab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.2%
Trey Sermon 2 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 25
OWN 20
-10
92.1%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dru Samia) to the Okla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5692% → 92%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
92.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
92.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for no gain to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
92.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+5
92.1%
Mike Bernier punt for 34 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:098% → 11%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
50
0
91.9%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Marquise BrownSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
50
+11
92.5%
Kyler Murray run for 11 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
92.4%
Trey Sermon run for 7 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
92.2%
Trey Sermon run for 1 yd to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
92.6%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Grant Calcaterra, broken up by Anfernee JenningsSimilar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+17
92.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 17 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
92.3%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
92.1%
Kyler Murray run for 1 yd to the Alab 9Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
92.5%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Grant CalcaterraSimilar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
89.1%
Austin Seibert 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11FG
19 plays · 55 yds · 6:5091% → 97%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
90.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 9 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
91.0%
Josh Jacobs run for 7 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-10
91.3%
Jacobs, Josh rush for 12 yards to the OKLAHOMA45, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Wills Jr., Jedrick) 10 yards to the ALABAMA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+12
91.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 12 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+7
91.2%
Josh Jacobs run for 7 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
91.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 11 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
91.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 9 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+4
91.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 4 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
91.7%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Okla 19Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
92.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 4 yds to the Okla 15Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-4
92.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jedrick Wills Jr.) to the Okla 19Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-5
92.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Formation (Jedrick Wills Jr.) to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+9
92.1%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 9 yds to the Okla 15Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 1
OPP 15
-5
91.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Damien Harris) to the Okla 20Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
96.5%
Joseph Bulovas 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 51 yds · 0:175% → 6%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Carson Meier for 7 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
94.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 9 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
94.6%
Kyler Murray run for 12 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
94.4%
Kyler Murray run for 23 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13FG
18 plays · 66 yds · 5:175% → 7%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Delay of Game (Kyler Murray) to the Okla 20Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
95.0%
Murray, Kyler pass incomplete, PENALTY ALABAMA personal foul (Moses, Dylan) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
94.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Carson Meier for 5 yds to the Okla 40 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Okla 30Similar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+7
95.0%
Kyler Murray run for 7 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
94.9%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Marquise BrownSimilar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-5
94.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (Dru Samia) to the Okla 32Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+14
95.2%
Kyler Murray run for 14 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
95.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 11 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
94.9%
Kennedy Brooks run for 8 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+8
94.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 8 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
94.7%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Carson MeierSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
95.1%
Kennedy Brooks run for 3 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+11
95.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 11 yds to the Alab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
95.2%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
95.4%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to CeeDee LambSimilar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
95.7%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Marquise BrownSimilar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
92.9%
Austin Seibert 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:2995% → 95%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 7 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
95.0%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
95.0%
Josh Jacobs run for 6 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
95.4%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+9
95.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 9 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
95.5%
Tua Tagovailoa run for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 16
OWN 47
+6
95.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 6 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
95.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
95.2%
Mike Bernier punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:575% → 14%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.8%
Kyler Murray run for 9 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
94.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 5 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
94.6%
Kyler Murray pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
94.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 7 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
94.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 5 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
86.1%
Charleston Rambo 49 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5589% → 98%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
88.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (-12 Yards) to the Alab 13Similar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
88.7%
Damien Harris run for 7 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+4
88.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 4 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
89.0%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+16
89.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 16 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
90.3%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
50
+21
90.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 21 yds to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
90.6%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds to the Okla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
90.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 9 yds to the Okla 10Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+10
97.6%
DeVonta Smith 10 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 4:294% → 10%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.4%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Trey Sermon run for no gain to the Okla 20Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
96.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Quinnen Williams) to the Okla 25Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Grant Calcaterra, broken up by Xavier McKinneySimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+10
97.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 10 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
96.8%
Kyler Murray run for 23 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
96.7%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Grant CalcaterraSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
96.7%
Trey Sermon run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+14
96.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 14 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.3%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to CeeDee LambSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
96.5%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Kennedy BrooksSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+13
96.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 13 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
96.3%
Kyler Murray run for 1 yd to the Alab 11Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+1
96.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 1 yd to the Alab 10Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
89.6%
CeeDee Lamb 10 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:1793% → 98%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
92.8%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+16
92.9%
Najee Harris run for 16 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
93.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 13 yds to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
93.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 2 yds to the Okla 13Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
98.4%
Jerry Jeudy 13 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:372% → 9%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+35
97.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Nick Basquine for 35 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
97.9%
Kyler Murray run for 11 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.6%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Lee MorrisSimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-10
97.7%
Kyler Murray sacked by Raekwon Davis for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 20
OPP 38
+15
98.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Raekwon Davis) to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
97.6%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 15 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
90.9%
Kyler Murray 8 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:5594% → 97%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
94.3%
Damien Harris run for 11 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
95.3%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+2
95.6%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+4
96.6%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
96.6%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Okla 35Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+10
97.2%
Josh Jacobs run for 10 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
97.3%
Josh Jacobs run for 19 yds to the Okla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 8Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:03
Charleston Rambo 49 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Austin Seibert Kick)
-8.7
TD · Q4 13:08
DeVonta Smith 10 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)
+6.8
TD · Q4 4:23
Kyler Murray 8 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com