2018 · Camping World Bowl · Dec 28, 2018 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:50 · Jack Allison pass incomplete to T.J. Simmons
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:30: Abdul Adams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +6.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:11: Evan Staley 44 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +7.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 3:23: Evan Staley 49 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +6.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:54: Trishton Jackson 14 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Andre Szmyt Kick) — SYR win probability +21.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:59: Jarveon Howard run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +9.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WVU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 14:09SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snapGo for it55.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.7%average punt
- Q1 13:31WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snapGo for it44.2%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.3%average punt
- Q1 11:34SYR 4th & 23 at SYR 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snapGo for it55.5%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.7%average punt
- Q1 6:42WVU 4th & 4 at SYR 10, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snapGo for it44.3%44% to convertField goalTheir call44.3%−0.188% to makePunt42.9%−1.4average punt
- Q1 0:43WVU 4th & 3 at SYR 46, down 4Close callPunted · 42.3% before the snapGo for it42.7%52% to convertField goal41.6%−1.123% to makePuntTheir call42.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:50SYR 4th & 17 at SYR 18, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snapGo for it52.6%−1.713% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.3%average punt
- Q2 10:20WVU 4th & 3 at SYR 40, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.2%52% to convertField goal44.7%−1.534% to makePunt45.0%−1.2average punt
- Q2 6:33WVU 4th & 5 at SYR 19, down 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.0% before the snapGo for it39.4%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call39.5%77% to makePunt33.5%−6.0average punt
- Q2 5:03SYR 4th & 3 at midfield, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 60.6% before the snapGo for it60.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%−1.1average punt
- Q2 3:42WVU 4th & 2 at SYR 47, down 2Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 41.8% before the snapGo for it42.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.7%−1.2average punt
- Q2 1:47SYR 4th & 13 at SYR 41, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snapGo for it57.1%−1.420% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.5%average punt
- Q2 0:59WVU 4th & 16 at WVU 14, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snapGo for it33.5%−4.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.6%average punt
- Q3 10:11WVU 4th & 12 at SYR 27, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snapGo for it37.2%−2.023% to convertField goalTheir call39.1%62% to makePunt31.7%−7.5average punt
- Q3 6:16SYR 4th & 8 at WVU 21, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snapGo for it52.6%−1.532% to convertField goalTheir call54.1%74% to makePunt43.6%−10.5average punt
- Q3 3:23WVU 4th & 13 at SYR 31, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snapGo for it36.0%−2.321% to convertField goalTheir call38.3%54% to makePunt36.2%−2.1average punt
- Q4 12:55SYR 4th & 10 at WVU 16, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snapGo for it76.3%−1.927% to convertField goalTheir call78.1%81% to makePunt68.7%−9.4average punt
- Q4 11:36WVU 4th & 19 at WVU 16, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snapGo for it10.5%−3.910% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.4%average punt
- Q4 6:12WVU 4th & 6 at SYR 6, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.1%31% to convertField goal4.6%−0.591% to makePunt2.7%−2.4average punt
- Q4 2:38SYR 4th & 4 at SYR 20, up 16Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.3%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:50WVU 4th & 10 at SYR 24, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%28% to convertField goal2.2%−0.168% to makePunt1.6%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WVU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 3:01SYR Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.5%97% to makeGo for two58.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:52WVU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call45.6%97% to makeGo for two45.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:30SYR Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.5%97% to makeGo for two60.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:54SYR Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.4%97% to makeGo for two70.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:59SYR Touchdown, up 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%−0.297% to makeGo for two94.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4152% → 52%
Q1 14:09
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
52.0%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 41 yds, fair catch by David Sills V at the WVirg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3248% → 48%
SYRDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -13 yds · 1:4652% → 52%
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
52.3%
Eric Dungey sacked by Toyous Avery Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 25Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-13
52.2%
Eric Dungey sacked by Keith Washington for a loss of 13 yards to the Syrac 12Similar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+42
52.2%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 42 yds , David Sills V returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4FG11 plays · 45 yds · 4:4348% → 48%
Q1 10:35
3RD & 5
50
+8
52.1%
Jack Allison pass complete to David Sills V for 8 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 15
OPP 21
-6
51.9%
Jack Allison sacked by Ryan Guthrie for a loss of 6 yards to the Syrac 27Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 21
OPP 27
+17
52.5%
Jack Allison pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 17 yds to the Syrac 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5TD12 plays · 91 yds · 3:3452% → 56%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
52.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 9 yds to the Syrac 18Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+2
52.1%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 2 yds to the Syrac 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
51.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Taj Harris for 9 yds to the Syrac 29Similar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
51.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Taj Harris for 19 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+44
53.1%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 44 yds to the WVirg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 2:1845% → 45%
SYRDrive 7INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4256% → 56%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-5
55.4%
Strickland, Dontae rush for 5 yards to the SYRACUSE20, PENALTY SYRACUSE illegal motion (Custis, Jamal) 5 yards to the SYRACUSE10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
55.5%
Eric Dungey pass intercepted Kenny Robinson Jr. return for 3 yds to the Syrac 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8TD5 plays · 16 yds · 1:0847% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4952% → 51%
WVUDrive 10DOWNS5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2050% → 50%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
49.9%
Jack Allison pass complete to Trevon Wesco for 12 yds to the Syrac 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-2
49.1%
Trey Lowe III pass complete to Sam James for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 40Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+2
50.5%
Jack Allison pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 2 yds to the Syrac 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11TD7 plays · 62 yds · 1:3053% → 62%
Q2 9:56
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+15
54.8%
Dungey, Eric pass incomplete, PENALTY WESTVIR roughing passer (Stills, Darius) 15 yards to the WESTVIR38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
55.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Taj Harris for 19 yds to the WVirg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+13
56.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Taj Harris for 8 yds to the WVirg 10 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Targeting Penalty (Kenny Robinson Jr.) to the WVirg 5 for a 1ST down. WVU #2 (K. Robinson) has been ejected for targeting.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12FG6 plays · 56 yds · 1:3742% → 45%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
54.1%
Jack Allison sacked by Tyrell Richards for a loss of 6 yards to the Syrac 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2259% → 58%
WVUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 40 yds · 1:1643% → 45%
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+32
56.5%
Jack Allison pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 17 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Allen Stritzinger) to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
55.1%
Billy Kinney punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 1:4858% → 58%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
60.3%
Eric Dungey sacked by Jovanni Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 43Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
59.2%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Jamal Custis, broken up by Keith WashingtonSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 11
OWN 43
-2
58.0%
Eric Dungey sacked by Darius Stills for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 41Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
58.3%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WVirg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:3641% → 39%
SYRDrive 17INT6 plays · -8 yds · 0:4761% → 59%
WVUDrive 18END OF HALF1 play · 12 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19FG10 plays · 48 yds · 4:3942% → 50%
Q3 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
57.4%
Jack Allison pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 8 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+34
56.5%
Jack Allison pass complete to Tevin Bush for 34 yds to the Syrac 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+3
57.4%
Jack Allison pass complete to Dominique Maiden for 3 yds to the Syrac 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20FG11 plays · 57 yds · 3:4951% → 62%
Q3 9:45
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
51.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 3 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
51.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 26 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+12
57.4%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 12 yds to the WVirg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21FG11 plays · 55 yds · 2:3740% → 49%
SYRDrive 22TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:2951% → 78%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
50.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Chris Elmore for 6 yds to the Syrac 26Similar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
50.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sharod Johnson for 18 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
54.6%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Evan Adams) to the Syrac 39Similar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
51.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 23 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
54.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 7 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
56.1%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 13 yds to the WVirg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+14
77.6%
Trishton Jackson 14 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Andre Szmyt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
68.4%
Jack Allison pass intercepted Allen Stritzinger return for 20 yds to the WVirg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 24FG6 plays · 2 yds · 1:4979% → 82%
WVUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 1:0918% → 14%
SYRDrive 26TD4 plays · 58 yds · 1:2685% → 95%
WVUDrive 27DOWNS11 plays · 72 yds · 3:386% → 6%
Q4 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
93.8%
Brown, Leddie rush for 7 yards to the WESTVIR36, PENALTY WESTVIR holding 10 yards to the WESTVIR19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+25
94.5%
Jack Allison pass complete to Leddie Brown for 25 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+48
93.9%
Jack Allison pass complete to David Sills V for 48 yds to the Syrac 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
92.9%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (David Sills V) to the Syrac 23Similar
Q4 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 23
+4
93.4%
Jack Allison pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 4 yds to the Syrac 19Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+16
93.7%
Jack Allison pass complete to David Sills V for 16 yds to the Syrac 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 28PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 3:2296% → 99%
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+9
96.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 9 yds to the Syrac 12Similar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
98.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 7 yds to the Syrac 21Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
98.8%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WVirg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 29DOWNS7 plays · 31 yds · 1:403% → 3%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Trishton Jackson 14 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Andre Szmyt Kick)
+21.5
TD · Q4 9:59
Jarveon Howard run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+9.5
FG · Q3 10:11
Evan Staley 44 yd FG GOOD
-7