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BAY

Baylor 45 at Vanderbilt 38

VAN
2018 · Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl · Dec 27, 2018 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:55 · Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 15 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense−5.3Pregame prior+2.7Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:16: Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +29.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q4 9:31: Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +34.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:19: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 75 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +37.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 3:30: Ryley Guay 33 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +16.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:50: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 52 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +38.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:16BAY 4th & 5 at VAN 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:54VAN 4th & 6 at BAY 47, up 4
    Close callPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:19BAY 4th & 1 at VAN 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−0.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−3.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:10BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.4%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:05BAY 4th & 1 at VAN 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−2.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:13BAY 4th & 8 at VAN 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:20VAN 4th & 1 at BAY 36, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%
    42% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:33VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:55BAY 4th & 13 at VAN 30, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.7 ptsWent for it · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.0%−2.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:40BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 7, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−1.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:00BAY 4th & 1 at VAN 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−8.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−7.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:30VAN 4th & 11 at BAY 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−13.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−23.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:00VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:04VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:19BAY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:23VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:33BAY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:57VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:54BAY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:51BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:16VAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:31VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:19BAY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−1.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:50BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:4158% → 58%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for no gain to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
58.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to LaDarius WileySimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+65
58.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 65 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:4442% → 41%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.5%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+31
58.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 31 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
58.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Charlie BrewerSimilar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
58.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 9 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
58.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
58.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 36Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+1
59.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 1 yd to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+24
59.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 24 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
59.2%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-2
59.2%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 6Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
59.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
58.9%
Connor Martin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:1659% → 60%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
58.9%
C.J. Bolar run for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
59.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
59.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+13
58.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 13 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
59.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
60.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Donaven Tennyson, broken up by Derrek ThomasSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
59.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared Pinkney, broken up by Verkedric VaughnsSimilar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+20
59.5%
Parker Thome punt for 35 yds, downed at the Bayl 12 VANDERBILT Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Bayl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:2141% → 44%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
59.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
59.4%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-5
59.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Blake Blackmar) to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+30
60.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 30 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
58.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+19
58.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 19 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
58.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+5
58.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Christoph Henle for 5 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 1
OPP 12
0
58.8%
John Lovett run for no gain to the Vandy 12Similar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+12
56.1%
John Lovett run for 12 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:3756% → 60%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
56.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 18Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+5
56.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (James Lynch) to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
56.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Donaven TennysonSimilar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+9
55.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 9 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
60.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 68 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4740% → 48%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
59.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
59.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 12 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
58.7%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Andre Mintze for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+10
59.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 10 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+11
58.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 11 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
57.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 15 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
52.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 18 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:2855% → 61%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
54.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 7 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+5
55.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 5 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
61.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 69 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8MISSED FG
18 plays · 67 yds · 7:2740% → 37%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
59.5%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
61.4%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
62.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
61.6%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
61.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+9
62.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
60.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 6 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-3
60.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 49Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+6
60.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Christoph Henle for 6 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+4
62.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+30
60.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 30 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
59.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Vandy 8Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
60.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q2 2:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
62.9%
Connor Martin 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9DOWNS
20 plays · 53 yds · 2:0264% → 67%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
64.0%
Kyle Shurmur run for 8 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
64.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trey EllisSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
63.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
64.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Bolar, broken up by Derrek ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+5
64.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
66.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 2
50
+5
66.9%
Shurmur, Kyle pass incomplete to Bolar, C.J., PENALTY BAYLOR offside 5 yards to the BAYLOR45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VANDERBILT.Similar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
67.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
67.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Khari BlasingameSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
66.1%
Shurmur, Kyle pass incomplete to Bolar, C.J., PENALTY BAYLOR offside 5 yards to the BAYLOR36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
66.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trey EllisSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
65.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
67.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 12 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
67.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
67.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-10
68.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+45
67.0%
Ryley Guay 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5137% → 54%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
61.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
61.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+23
60.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 23 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
58.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Marques JonesSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
46.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 34 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 4:1751% → 49%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
50.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
49.9%
Khari Blasingame run for 10 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
53.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
53.3%
Kyle Shurmur run for 3 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-3
52.6%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Blake Lynch for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 44Similar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
48.8%
Parker Thome punt for 44 yds, downed at the Bayl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 3:1752% → 75%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+38
47.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 38 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
50
0
44.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
50
-10
44.2%
Brewer, Charlie pass complete to Lovett, John for 19 yards to the VANDERBILT31, PENALTY BAYLOR holding 10 yards to the BAYLOR40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+33
46.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 33 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
42.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Josh FleeksSimilar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
42.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-3
44.1%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Kenny Hebert for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+15
48.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 15 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
41.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 13 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Joejuan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
41.1%
Lovett, John rush for no gain to the VANDERBILT2, PENALTY VANDERBILT offside 1 yards to the VANDERBILT1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:2329% → 30%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
28.8%
Shurmur, Kyle pass incomplete to Pinkney, Jared, PENALTY BAYLOR personal foul (Morgan, Christian) 15 yards to the VANDERBILT40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VANDERBILT.Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
30.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 26 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
33.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
32.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+32
30.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 32 yds Jared Pinkney fumbled, recovered by Bayl Blake LynchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2072% → 70%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
28.3%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 2Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+5
28.5%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 5
OWN 7
0
29.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
30.3%
Issac Power punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Trey Ellis at the Vandy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 1:0929% → 57%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
29.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Vandy 46Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+52
27.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 52 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.1%
Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16INT
13 plays · 59 yds · 4:3055% → 66%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
45.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 18 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
42.0%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+7
43.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 7 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
41.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 5 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
40.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
40.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+9
41.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 9 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+7
40.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
36.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 9 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+5
36.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
33.6%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted, touchback. Randall Haynie return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:5444% → 80%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
44.4%
C.J. Bolar run for 13 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+66
45.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 66 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.9%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
37.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 75 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:3845% → 62%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
45.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
44.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 11 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
45.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
45.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Randall HaynieSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
42.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 15 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
49.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 2 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+12
48.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 12 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
51.1%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+17
50.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 17 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
50.0%
Donaven Tennyson run for a loss of 10 yards to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+9
46.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 9 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
44.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. BolarSimilar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
61.7%
Ryley Guay 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3547% → 90%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
52.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 11 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
51.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
47.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
9.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 52 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:3515% → 12%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
14.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
14.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 5 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
13.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Khari BlasingameSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
11.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22Uncategorized
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:2496% → 98%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
4.1%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
2.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 8
OPP 21
-9
2.3%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 9 yards to the Vandy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:50
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 52 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)
-38
TD · Q4 9:19
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 75 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)
-37
TD · Q4 9:31
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)
+34.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com