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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreMIA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:08 · Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 1:15: Bubba Baxa 33 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +2.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:58: Jonathan Taylor run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST down — WIS win probability +4.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 5:09: Jonathan Taylor run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST down — WIS win probability +5.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:36: Alec Ingold run for 2 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +12.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:59: Jack Coan run for 7 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 8:52MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snapGo for it49.0%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.3%average punt
- Q1 1:15MIA 4th & 6 at WIS 16, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snapGo for it41.4%−0.338% to convertField goalTheir call41.7%81% to makePunt37.1%−4.6average punt
- Q2 10:54WIS 4th & 2 at MIA 23, up 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snapGo for it60.9%57% to convertField goalTheir call59.8%−1.070% to makePunt54.6%−6.2average punt
- Q2 9:18MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 29, down 11Close callPunted · 37.7% before the snapGo for it37.9%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:23WIS 4th & 17 at WIS 24, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snapGo for it60.5%−2.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.0%average punt
- Q2 4:12WIS 4th & 8 at MIA 20, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snapGo for it65.6%−0.732% to convertField goalTheir call66.2%75% to makePunt61.7%−4.5average punt
- Q2 0:26WIS 4th & 17 at MIA 35, up 11Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsPunted · 70.2% before the snapGo for it69.7%−1.415% to convertField goal71.1%45% to makePuntTheir call69.4%−1.7average punt
- Q3 12:11MIA 4th & 7 at WIS 49, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it27.7%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.1%average punt
- Q3 6:44WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 30, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snapGo for it76.8%−0.836% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.6%average punt
- Q3 1:45MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 21, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it6.3%−2.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q4 13:25WIS 4th & 12 at MIA 48, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.3%−0.823% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.1%average punt
- Q4 7:20MIA 4th & 18 at MIA 18, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 11:56WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.7%97% to makeGo for two46.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:30WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.7%97% to makeGo for two48.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:36WIS Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:59WIS Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:08WIS Touchdown, up 31 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWISDrive 1TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:5641% → 43%
Q1 11:56
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+35
43.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 35 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+30
43.2%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted Eric Burrell return for 30 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3TD1 play · 7 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
44.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3355% → 53%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
44.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 22 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Malik RosierSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
45.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 12 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
47.3%
Jack Spicer punt for 37 yds , Jack Dunn returns for no gain to the Wisc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5INT7 plays · 60 yds · 3:3549% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6FG6 plays · 76 yds · 2:0946% → 49%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
52.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 10 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7MISSED FG12 plays · 52 yds · 5:1352% → 58%
MIADrive 8PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2543% → 40%
Q2 9:18
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+3
59.7%
Jack Spicer punt for 43 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3960% → 60%
Q2 8:28
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-1
60.3%
Jack Coan sacked by Mike Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 13
OWN 28
-4
59.2%
Jack Coan sacked by Michael Pinckney for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 24Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 17
OWN 24
0
59.6%
Anthony Lotti punt for 41 yds, fair catch by DeeJay Dallas at the MiaFl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.9%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted Chris Orr return for no gain to the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11MISSED FG6 plays · 22 yds · 2:5263% → 64%
Q2 5:00
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+5
64.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 5 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12FUMBLE4 plays · 20 yds · 2:0135% → 35%
WISDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 1:3270% → 67%
MIADrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 2:4131% → 29%
WISDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 28 yds · 5:1872% → 75%
MIADrive 17INT3 plays · 4 yds · 0:5427% → 26%
WISDrive 18TD4 plays · 59 yds · 1:3380% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:299% → 8%
WISDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 3:0094% → 95%
MIADrive 21INT3 plays · 3 yds · 1:026% → 5%
WISDrive 22TD5 plays · 34 yds · 2:0997% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:181% → 1%
WISDrive 24TD10 plays · 53 yds · 6:57100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:36
Alec Ingold run for 2 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+12.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:09
Jonathan Taylor run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST down
+5.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:58
Jonathan Taylor run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST down
+4.2