Try the model
CAL

California 7 at TCU 10

TCU
2018 · Cheez-It Bowl · Dec 26, 2018 · Chase Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:26 · Steven Coutts punt for 28 yds, downed at the TCU 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsDefense timeouts
+17.0+8.50−8.5−17.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 11Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Time remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:03: Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +24.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:45: Taye Barber run for 4 yds to the Cal 37 — TCU win probability +14.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · OT 0:00: Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TCU 22 — CAL win probability +23.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. KEY PLAY · OT 0:00: TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Cal 40 — TCU win probability +21.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Jonathan Song 27 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +20.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 11:26CAL 4th & 10 at TCU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:41CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:27TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:40CAL 4th & 5 at TCU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:46TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:25CAL 4th & 19 at CAL 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−3.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:38TCU 4th & 2 at CAL 28, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:25CAL 4th & 5 at TCU 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−1.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:05TCU 4th & 1 at CAL 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−6.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:02CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:12CAL 4th & 20 at CAL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−8.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:08TCU 4th & 7 at CAL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:38CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:40TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−4.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:33TCU 4th & 2 at CAL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−6.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−11.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:15CAL 4th & 5 at TCU 40, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.7 ptsPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%−4.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%−5.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:33CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:03TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:2949% → 49%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
50.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+17
50.9%
Chase Garbers run for 17 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
50.9%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
50.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 1 yd to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+13
50.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 13 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-6
50.9%
Chase Garbers sacked by Arico Evans for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+6
51.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 6 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-5
51.4%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
51.0%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
51.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 28 yds, downed at the TCU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:2951% → 51%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
51.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+2
51.4%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 2 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+4
51.3%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 4 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
51.7%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
51.7%
Jalen Reagor run for 4 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
51.4%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
51.2%
Adam Nunez punt for 48 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for no gain to the Cal 32 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cal 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3448% → 48%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
51.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Ian Bunting for 4 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+5
51.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+7
51.5%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
51.3%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-1
51.2%
Chase Garbers sacked by L.J. Collier for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
51.7%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+3
52.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 46 yds , Jalen Reagor returns for 3 yds to the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3352% → 52%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
52.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
52.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass intercepted Jaylinn Hawkins return for no gain to the TCU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:2149% → 53%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+30
50.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 30 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
46.8%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3348% → 47%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
48.2%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Ni'Jeel Meeking for no gain to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
48.0%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Keenan ReedSimilar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
47.5%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Ni'Jeel MeekingSimilar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
47.2%
Adam Nunez punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7INT
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:5353% → 54%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
47.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 6 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+9
46.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 9 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
46.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to McCallan Castles for 15 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
45.9%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted Julius Lewis return for 3 yds to the TCU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4948% → 48%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
47.6%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Derius Davis for 1 yd to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
47.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
47.6%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Taye Barber for 5 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
48.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 4 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
48.4%
Grayson Muehlstein run for no gain to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+29
48.0%
Grayson Muehlstein pass intercepted Jaylinn Hawkins return for 29 yds to the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3556% → 56%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
44.5%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+45
44.3%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted Niko Small return for 45 yds to the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3648% → 47%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
47.5%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+7
47.3%
Grayson Muehlstein pass intercepted Jordan Kunaszyk return for 7 yds to the Cal 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0556% → 55%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
44.2%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 9
50
+4
44.0%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
44.0%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
44.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:4546% → 42%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
45.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
45.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 9 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+1
45.1%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 1 yd to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
44.6%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
42.3%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
41.8%
Adam Nunez punt for 44 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for no gain to the Cal 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 3:1458% → 57%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
42.1%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
42.3%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+4
41.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 4 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
40.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 3 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-4
39.9%
Chase Garbers sacked by Ty Summers for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-3
41.3%
Chase Garbers sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 14
OWN 36
-5
42.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 19
OWN 31
0
42.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:3642% → 42%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
41.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
42.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 7 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
42.0%
Sewo Olonilua run for 7 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+25
43.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 25 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
44.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
44.0%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+4
45.0%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 2
OPP 28
-12
41.5%
Grayson Muehlstein sacked by Evan Rambo for a loss of 12 yards to the Cal 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:2164% → 63%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
35.7%
Chase Garbers run for 16 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
34.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+27
36.6%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted Jeff Gladney return for 27 yds to the Cal 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
43.3%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17INT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1340% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
39.6%
TCU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the TCU 20Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
39.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 12 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
40.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
39.6%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
37.8%
Grayson Muehlstein pass intercepted Jaylinn Hawkins return for no gain to the Cal 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0964% → 65%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
36.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 11 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
34.7%
Chase Forrest pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 8 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+3
33.8%
Chase Forrest pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 3 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
33.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
33.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
33.8%
Chase Forrest pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
35.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 44 yds · 3:1337% → 39%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
37.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 8 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+10
37.7%
Emari Demercado run for 10 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
37.6%
Emari Demercado run for 17 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
39.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
40.9%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 3 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
40.5%
Grayson Muehlstein run for no gain to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
38.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 43 yds, downed at the Cal 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:5466% → 68%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
34.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+1
34.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cal 7Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+33
35.1%
Chase Forrest pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 33 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
30.5%
Jeremiah Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+5
30.9%
Chase Forrest pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 5 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
30.0%
Chase Forrest pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+58
31.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 47 yds , Jalen Reagor returns for 58 yds to the Cal 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 3:4341% → 62%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
41.1%
Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+4
41.1%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
40.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
40.7%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 3 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+2
38.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q3 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:4848% → 44%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
51.8%
Chase Forrest sacked by Corey Bethley for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-2
52.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 15Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
54.3%
Chase Forrest pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+9
55.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 44 yds , Jalen Reagor returns for 9 yds to the TCU 24 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:4859% → 56%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
59.0%
Jalen Reagor run for 3 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+7
60.2%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
50
-2
61.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Taye Barber for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+5
58.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
60.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
56.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1848% → 44%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
51.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+4
52.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
53.8%
Chase Forrest pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
55.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5259% → 54%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
59.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-4
59.9%
Justin Rogers sacked by Zeandae Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+1
55.2%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 1 yd to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
53.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:3548% → 52%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
52.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+8
50.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
47.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
48.3%
Chase Forrest pass intercepted Vernon Scott return for no gain to the Cal 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1263% → 62%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
62.5%
Taye Barber run for 4 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
62.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+1
62.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
61.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the Cal 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:0650% → 52%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
49.8%
Chase Forrest pass complete to Maurice Ways for 22 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
44.9%
Chase Forrest pass incomplete to Malik McMorrisSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
44.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
45.7%
Chase Forrest pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
48.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29DOWNS
13 plays · 63 yds · 2:0858% → 64%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
57.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+9
57.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 9 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+33
58.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 33 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
65.0%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+15
64.7%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 15 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
68.1%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
66.1%
Jalen Reagor run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+44
63.5%
Cole Bunce 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 30INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0060% → 57%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
40.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TCU 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
40.5%
Chase Forrest pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+84
43.1%
Chase Forrest pass intercepted Jawuan Johnson return for 84 yds to the Cal 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 31FG
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 25
-15
64.7%
TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Cal 40Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 40
+4
61.0%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Ni'Jeel Meeking for 4 yds to the Cal 36Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 36
+5
61.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the Cal 31Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
64.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the Cal 15Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+2
62.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
64.7%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the Cal 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-1
64.7%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 13Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+3
62.2%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
79.3%
Jonathan Song 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:03
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+24
KEY PLAY · OT 0:00
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TCU 22
-23
KEY PLAY · OT 0:00
TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Cal 40
+21.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com